# Cleveland Browns v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cleveland Browns 13 – 10 Green Bay Packers

_Cleveland Browns fight back to roll over Green Bay Packers._

Half time: 0 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cleveland Browns 25% / Green Bay Packers 75% · FirstEnergy Stadium · Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Cleveland Browns: Quinshon Judkins (57' Tipped ⚡) · Green Bay Packers: John FitzPatrick (42')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 75% | Lost |
| Cleveland Browns | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Cleveland Browns 13–10 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 3 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cleveland Browns beat Green Bay Packers 13-10 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Nobody told the stat sheet.

Green Bay finished with more total yards, 264 to 238. More first downs, 20 to 19. A much better offensive EPA, minus 4.7 against Cleveland's minus 8. By most measures that get put in a spreadsheet, the Packers were the better team on the day. They just didn't have the better score, and that's the only column that pays out.

The half-time ledger read Cleveland 0, Green Bay 3, and it stayed that way for a long stretch. FitzPatrick's touchdown with 3:29 left in the third put Green Bay up 9, and a score at the end of that quarter made it 10-0. For three quarters this looked like exactly what the form lines suggested it would: Green Bay arrived on a two-game winning streak, Cleveland on five straight losses, and the Packers' average margin over their last five (plus 1.4) against Cleveland's (minus 17) was doing its job on the scoreboard.

Then Judkins happened. His touchdown with 3:04 left in the fourth flipped a 10-point Green Bay lead into a 13-10 Cleveland one, and it stuck. He finished with 94 yards on 18 carries, the game's leading rusher, and Cleveland's ground game outproduced Green Bay's 96 yards to 81 despite the Packers winning almost every other yardage battle.

The pass rush is where Cleveland actually won this. Five sacks to Green Bay's two is the number that explains the passing lines: Jordan Love went 18 of 25 for 183 yards with a touchdown and a pick, numbers that look tidy until you remember he was hurried into a good chunk of them. Joe Flacco was pedestrian by comparison, 21 of 36 for 142 with an interception of his own, but he didn't need to be sharp. He needed the defence to hold, and it did.

That defensive muscle wasn't supposed to be there on paper. Green Bay came in rated higher across the board, quarterback 51 to 25, secondary 57 to 47, special teams 61 to 45. Cleveland's one edge going in was the backfield, 62 to 57, and it turned out to be the edge that mattered, with Judkins doing the heavy lifting both in yards and in the moment that decided the game.

Matthew Golden was Green Bay's best target, 4 catches for 52 yards, but a competent receiving day from the Packers' better-rated corps wasn't enough when the group is judged on the scoreboard rather than the box score.

Alphr's model had Green Bay favoured at 75 per cent, with the margin read of 0.2 points nearly bang on the eventual gap of 3. Where it missed was the total. Combined points landed at 23 against a projected 39, sixteen points light, and that gap is really the story of the whole afternoon: a game that was supposed to be an track meet turned into a defensive slog decided by one rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter. The rating gap said Green Bay by a fraction. Nobody's model had Cleveland winning a game where they trailed by ten with a quarter to go.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 238 | Total Yards | **264** |
| 142 | Passing Yards | **183** |
| **96** | Rushing Yards | 81 |
| 19 | First Downs | **20** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -8 | Offensive EPA | **-4.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Cleveland Browns defied the model's 75% prediction for Green Bay Packers, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Green Bay Packers by 0.2 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 23 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 39. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 41.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 23 points was 22 points below Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Cleveland Browns bucked the trend, Green Bay Packers historically win 63% of games under Carl Cheffers, but couldn't convert that edge today. Cleveland Browns's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.21 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 75.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 0 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 75% to see off Cleveland Browns. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 240 ELO points clear, 1619 to 1379. Form leans Green Bay Packers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Cleveland Browns.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Green Bay Packers to win, not to win big.

Green Bay Packers have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Cleveland Browns took the most recent meeting 13-10 in 2025 Week 3.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Joe Flacco starts under centre for Cleveland Browns, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Kevin Stefanski and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

Green Bay Packers come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Cleveland Browns $4.60 and Green Bay Packers $1.21, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -8.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Cleveland Browns 2 · Green Bay Packers 5 |
| Last meeting | Cleveland Browns 13-10 (2025) |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 home |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Flacco · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Kevin Stefanski · Matt LaFleur |
| Rest | Cleveland Browns 7d · Green Bay Packers 10d |
| Market | Cleveland Browns $4.60 · Green Bay Packers $1.21 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -8.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 2W–11L | 15% |
| Green Bay Packers | 12W–7L | 63% |

Avg total: 45.1 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Green Bay Packers have won 12 of 19 games (63%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 2 from 13 (15%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 10.4pts | Avg Score | 22.2pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -17.0pts | Avg Margin | 1.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L | 10.4 |
| Green Bay Packers | W17 L · W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 W | 22.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W3 | Cleveland Browns | 13 – 10 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2021 | W16 | Green Bay Packers | 24 – 22 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2017 | W14 | Cleveland Browns | 21 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2013 | W7 | Green Bay Packers | 31 – 13 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2009 | W7 | Cleveland Browns | 3 – 31 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FirstEnergy Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/13g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.50 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | no games | 1/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 12/51g | 32% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Carter | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamari Thrash | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/21g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kaden Davis | WR | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 2 in 2g | 14/10g (3·1·3·1·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.65 AI 53% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Malik Heath | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 53% · no TD
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.FitzPatrick

**Cleveland Browns** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jerry Jeudy 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 1 · model 31% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Cedric Tillman — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Dylan Sampson — 1 TD in last 2 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cleveland Browns 1379 · Green Bay Packers 1619 · ELO difference: 240 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cleveland Browns | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 25 | 51 | Green Bay Packers +26 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 59 | Green Bay Packers +13 |
| Backfield | 62 | 57 | Cleveland Browns +5 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 57 | Even |
| Secondary | 47 | 57 | Green Bay Packers +10 |
| Special Teams | 45 | 61 | Green Bay Packers +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Green Bay Packers |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Green Bay Packers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)