# Chicago Bears v Dallas Cowboys — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 31 – 14 Dallas Cowboys

_Chicago Bears overpower Dallas Cowboys._

Half time: 24 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 44% / Dallas Cowboys 56% · Soldier Field · Mon, 22 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze (5' Tipped ⚡), Burden (11'), Cole Kmet (30'), DJ Moore (45' Tipped ⚡) · Dallas Cowboys: George Pickens (22' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 56% | Lost |
| Chicago Bears | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 06:25 am_

Chicago Bears 31–14 Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 3 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears led from the opening drive and never gave it back, and the only real question by the third quarter was how far Dallas could close the gap. The answer, in the end, was not far enough. Bears 31, Cowboys 14 at Soldier Field, a scoreline that started building inside the first quarter and never seriously wobbled.

Rome Odunze got it started with 10:40 left in the first, then Luther Burden III made it 13-3 before the quarter was even out. Chicago led 14-3 at the break of the first term. Dallas had one answer all night, a George Pickens touchdown that trimmed it to 14-12 midway through the second, and for a few minutes it looked like a game. Cole Kmet closed that door with 30 seconds left before half, Chicago into the break up 24-14, and DJ Moore's score late in the third put it out of reach for good at 30-14.

The stat sheet tells a strange story if you only look at the top line. Dallas actually outgained Chicago 413 yards to 385, picked up more first downs, 34 to 29, and ran for 121 yards against Chicago's 87. On paper that is the better offensive day. On the scoreboard it wasn't close, and the four turnovers are why. Chicago forced zero giveaways of its own and turned Dallas's mistakes into a 17-point margin that had nothing to do with total yardage and everything to do with who protected the ball.

Efficiency backs that up too. Chicago's offense ran +16.6 expected points added for the game, Dallas sat at -2.7, a gap of 19.3 points snap for snap that matches the final margin better than any yardage column does. Caleb Williams went 19-of-28 for 298 yards and four touchdowns, spreading it around to Kmet, Moore, Burden and Odunze. Dak Prescott actually threw for more completions, 31-of-40 for 251, but the two interceptions in there did the damage, and one touchdown wasn't going to keep pace with four.

Individually, Luther Burden III was the standout, three catches for 101 yards and a score, doing more with fewer touches than anyone else on the field. Javonte Williams was Dallas's one clean positive, 76 yards on just 10 carries, proof the Cowboys backfield showed up even while the passing game didn't.

Going in, the positional read had Dallas ahead almost everywhere that matters on paper, quarterback 55 to 50, backfield 60 to 36, and special teams a lopsided 82 to 51. The model leaned on that and had Dallas favoured by 4.7 points, a 56% pick, with the ELO gap running 1473 to 1397 in the Cowboys' favour. Chicago's own form line, one win in five, didn't suggest an upset was coming either.

None of that held up. Chicago's defence turned Dallas's rating advantages into four turnovers and forced the issue often enough that the better yardage numbers on Dallas's side never turned into points. The model missed this one by 12 points on the margin, a reminder that a stat sheet edge means nothing once the ball starts changing hands the wrong way.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 385 | Total Yards | **413** |
| **298** | Passing Yards | 292 |
| 87 | Rushing Yards | **121** |
| 29 | First Downs | **34** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 4 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **16.6** | Offensive EPA | -2.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Chicago Bears defied the model's 56% prediction for Dallas Cowboys, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 17 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Clay Martin's career average of 46. Chicago Bears bucked the trend, Dallas Cowboys historically win 71% of games under Clay Martin, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.80 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 55.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 5 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dallas Cowboys are the call at 56%, but Chicago Bears stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dallas Cowboys sit 76 ELO points clear, 1473 to 1397. Form leans Dallas Cowboys' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Chicago Bears.

Dallas Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Dallas Cowboys by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 52. Lean Dallas Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is even: 5 wins each from the last 10 meetings, Chicago Bears taking the most recent 31-14 in 2025 Week 3.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Dak Prescott for Dallas Cowboys, with Ben Johnson and Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots.

The market has Dallas Cowboys favourites, Chicago Bears $2.05 and Dallas Cowboys $1.80, with the spread at Dallas Cowboys -1.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Chicago Bears 5 · Dallas Cowboys 5 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 31-14 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 3-6 away |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Dak Prescott |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Brian Schottenheimer |
| Market | Chicago Bears $2.05 · Dallas Cowboys $1.80 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -1.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dallas Cowboys

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Dallas Cowboys have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Chicago Bears's 3 from 7 (43%). Small sample (7 games for Chicago Bears).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 29.8pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L | 17.8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 W | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W3 | Chicago Bears | 31 – 14 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2022 | W8 | Dallas Cowboys | 49 – 29 | Chicago Bears |
| 2019 | W14 | Chicago Bears | 31 – 24 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2016 | W3 | Dallas Cowboys | 31 – 17 | Chicago Bears |
| 2014 | W14 | Chicago Bears | 28 – 41 | Dallas Cowboys |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 7% | — | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/11g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 9/41g | 20% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 8/17g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/13g | 26% | — | — |

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Miles Sanders | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.20 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Joe Milton III | QB | no games | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · new club · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Miles Sanders — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Rome Odunze — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Bears: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: L.Burden, C.Kmet

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1397 · Dallas Cowboys 1473 · ELO difference: 76 in favour of Dallas Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 55 | Dallas Cowboys +5 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 47 | Even |
| Backfield | 36 | 60 | Dallas Cowboys +24 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 51 | 82 | Dallas Cowboys +31 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Dallas Cowboys predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)