# Baltimore Ravens v Detroit Lions — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 30 – 38 Detroit Lions

_Detroit Lions devour Baltimore Ravens._

Half time: 14 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 67% / Detroit Lions 33% · M&T Bank Stadium · Tue, 23 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (10' Tipped ⚡), Rashod Bateman (30'), Mark Andrews (37'), Mark Andrews (60') · Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs (6' Tipped ⚡), David Montgomery (25' Tipped ⚡), Amon-Ra St. Brown (40' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (45' Tipped ⚡), David Montgomery (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 67% | Lost |
| Detroit Lions | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2025, 10:15 am_

Baltimore Ravens 30–38 Detroit Lions in NFL Week 3 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three times this game went to a tie, and three times Detroit Lions found the answer. The last one stuck. Baltimore Ravens led 21-14 with 5:18 left in the third after Mark Andrews' second touchdown, watched Amon-Ra St. Brown level it, and then had no reply left when the fourth quarter turned into a procession. Jahmyr Gibbs opened that final period with his second touchdown, David Montgomery added his second at 1:50 to make it 37-24, and by the time Andrews grabbed a second late score with 35 seconds left it was window dressing. Final score: Detroit Lions 38, Baltimore Ravens 30.

The turnover column tells you plenty. Baltimore Ravens gave the ball away once, Detroit Lions not at all, and in a game decided by a two-score margin that's the sort of ledger entry that matters. So does the pass rush split: Detroit Lions sacked Lamar Jackson seven times, Baltimore Ravens didn't touch Jared Goff once. Seven sacks and still Jackson threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns. Imagine the afternoon he'd have had with a clean pocket.

Where Detroit Lions really won it was on the ground. 224 rushing yards, more than half their 426 total yards, with Montgomery the headline act: 151 yards and two scores from just 12 carries. That's a Ravens front getting shoved backwards all night, and it lines up with the pre-match positional read, where Detroit's edge in receiving corps (78 to 52) was expected to matter more than it did. Instead it was the run game doing the damage while Goff had a quiet, efficient day through the air, 20 of 28 for 202 and one touchdown.

Snap for snap, Detroit Lions were just the sharper offence. Plus-20.0 in expected points added is a big gap to spot a team playing a home underdog, and it shows up across the box score even with Baltimore Ravens holding the edge in passing yards and finishing within four first downs. Andrews was outstanding for what it's worth, six catches for 91 yards and two scores, the clear top target on the day, and Derrick Henry and Rashod Bateman both found the end zone. Wins and misses, all of it, because none of that offense was enough to cover for seven sacks and a lost fumble.

Baltimore Ravens came in on the back of form that looked stronger on paper, a 12-point average margin over their last five against Detroit's 6.2, and a quarterback rating edge of 75 to 66. None of it translated once Detroit Lions started winning the line of scrimmage. Both sides arrived on the same WWLLW form line and equal rest, so this wasn't about freshness. It was about who controlled the ball on the ground and who got to the passer.

Alphr's model had Baltimore Ravens favourites at 67%, expected to win by 6.4 in a game projected around 59 total points. The total was close enough, 68 points played out, but the margin and the winner both went the other way, Detroit Lions by 8. A clean miss, and a reminder that pass rush and rushing yards can flip a model's read in a hurry.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 30 |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total Yards | **426** |
| **288** | Passing Yards | 202 |
| 85 | Rushing Yards | **224** |
| 32 | First Downs | **34** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **7** |
| 3.8 | Offensive EPA | **23.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Detroit Lions defied the model's 67% prediction for Baltimore Ravens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.4 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 23 points above Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. Detroit Lions bucked the trend, Baltimore Ravens historically win 67% of games under Bill Vinovich, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.41 (edge -3.9%) — model probability 67.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 6 · Predicted total: 59

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 67% to see off Detroit Lions. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 28 ELO points clear, 1643 to 1615.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 59. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Detroit Lions took the most recent meeting 38-30 in 2025 Week 3.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Jared Goff for Detroit Lions, with John Harbaugh and Dan Campbell calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.41 and Detroit Lions $3.00, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -4.5 and the total at 53.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Baltimore Ravens 5 · Detroit Lions 2 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 38-30 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-5 away |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Jared Goff |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Dan Campbell |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.41 · Detroit Lions $3.00 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -4.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 12W–6L | 67% |
| Detroit Lions | 8W–6L | 57% |

Avg total: 44.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Baltimore Ravens hold a 10-point edge: 12W–6L (67%) vs Detroit Lions's 8W–6L (57%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 33.8pts | Avg Score | 33.4pts |
| 21.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.2pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W18 W · WC W · DIV L · W1 L · W2 W | 33.8 |
| Detroit Lions | W17 W · W18 W · DIV L · W1 L · W2 W | 33.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W3 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 – 38 | Detroit Lions |
| 2023 | W7 | Baltimore Ravens | 38 – 6 | Detroit Lions |
| 2021 | W3 | Detroit Lions | 17 – 19 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2017 | W13 | Baltimore Ravens | 44 – 20 | Detroit Lions |
| 2013 | W15 | Detroit Lions | 16 – 18 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·2·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 13/12g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.46 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 2 in 1g | 3/4g (0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 20/57g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/19g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/19g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 40% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/39g | 22% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 26/57g | 40% | — | 🏉 37' 60' |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/29g | 34% | — | 🏉 30' |

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 3 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·3) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.18 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 59' |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 1 in 2g | 14/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·4·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.80 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 45' |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 39% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam LaPorta | TE | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Detroit Lions** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 1 pass) · model 56% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ David Montgomery 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Jameson Williams — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Baltimore Ravens** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 0 pass) · model 63% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 14 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Bateman, M.Andrews

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1643 · Detroit Lions 1615 · ELO difference: 28 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Detroit Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 75 | 66 | Baltimore Ravens +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 78 | Detroit Lions +26 |
| Backfield | 69 | 69 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 44 | 49 | Detroit Lions +5 |
| Secondary | 51 | 59 | Detroit Lions +8 |
| Special Teams | 78 | 64 | Baltimore Ravens +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 59 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-23 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)