# New Orleans Saints v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New Orleans Saints 21 – 26 San Francisco 49ers

_San Francisco 49ers survive a scare against New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 7 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New Orleans Saints 46% / San Francisco 49ers 54% · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Mon, 15 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — New Orleans Saints: Juwan Johnson (29'), Rashid Shaheed (38' Tipped ⚡), Devaughn Vele (54') · San Francisco 49ers: Luke Farrell (12'), Christian McCaffrey (30' Tipped ⚡), Jauan Jennings (48' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 54% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

New Orleans Saints 21–26 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 2 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

San Francisco won it 26-21 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and the final margin flatters New Orleans a touch. At half-time the 49ers led 16-7, a nine-point buffer that ballooned further before the Saints clawed back late. San Francisco needed a Jauan Jennings touchdown midway through the fourth just to keep it at two possessions, and even then New Orleans had an answer. Read the box score in isolation and it looks tight. Watch how it actually played out and it was San Francisco controlling most of the night.

The scoring started early and stayed lopsided in San Francisco's favour for a long stretch. Luke Farrell got the 49ers on the board with 3:32 left in the first quarter, making it 6-0. New Orleans didn't respond until 1:20 remained in the second, when Juwan Johnson's touchdown cut it to 9-6. San Francisco answered almost immediately: Christian McCaffrey scored with 11 seconds left in the half to push it to 16-7 at the break. Rashid Shaheed got New Orleans within three at 16-13 with 7:15 left in the third, but San Francisco stretched it back out to 19-14 by quarter's end. Jennings' fourth-quarter score made it 25-14 before Devaughn Vele's late touchdown brought New Orleans to 26-21, which is exactly how it finished.

The yardage battle tells a similar story: 356 for San Francisco against 328 for New Orleans. Both offences moved the ball through the air more than on the ground, with Mac Jones going 26-of-39 for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns for San Francisco, while Spencer Rattler was 25-of-34 for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns for New Orleans. First downs favoured San Francisco 35 to 30. Where New Orleans found an edge was on the ground, out-rushing San Francisco 121 yards to 77, with Alvin Kamara doing the heavy lifting: 99 yards on 21 carries. Jennings was the best individual weapon on the field, hauling in 5 catches for 89 yards and a touchd

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 328 | Total Yards | **356** |
| 207 | Passing Yards | **279** |
| **121** | Rushing Yards | 77 |
| 30 | First Downs | **35** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3 | Sacks Made | 3 |
| **-0.6** | Offensive EPA | -0.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 0.6 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 47, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Shawn Smith's career average of 47.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.60 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 53.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 1 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

San Francisco 49ers are the call at 54%, but New Orleans Saints stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 101 ELO points clear, 1501 to 1400. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for New Orleans Saints.

San Francisco 49ers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. Lean San Francisco 49ers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, San Francisco 49ers taking the most recent 26-21 in 2025 Week 2.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Spencer Rattler starts under centre for New Orleans Saints, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Kellen Moore and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, New Orleans Saints $2.40 and San Francisco 49ers $1.60, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -3 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New Orleans Saints 6 · San Francisco 49ers 6 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 26-21 (2025) |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Spencer Rattler · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Kyle Shanahan |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $2.40 · San Francisco 49ers $1.60 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -3 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 3W–1L | 75% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7W–2L | 78% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Shawn Smith, New Orleans Saints 3W–1L (75%) and San Francisco 49ers 7W–2L (78%). Small sample (4 games for New Orleans Saints).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 12.2pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 28.2pts |
| -13.0pts | Avg Margin | -8.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 L | 12.2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W2 | New Orleans Saints | 21 – 26 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2022 | W12 | San Francisco 49ers | 13 – 0 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2020 | W10 | New Orleans Saints | 27 – 13 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2019 | W14 | New Orleans Saints | 46 – 48 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2016 | W9 | San Francisco 49ers | 23 – 41 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/3g | 47/63g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 48% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 6/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/18g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/29g | 28% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/16g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| – | Spencer Rattler | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 1 in 1g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 4/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.66 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.60 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Isaac Guerendo | RB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 40% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Brian Robinson — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 25% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: L.Farrell

**New Orleans Saints** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 48% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Johnson, D.Vele

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1400 · San Francisco 49ers 1501 · ELO difference: 101 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 35 | 53 | San Francisco 49ers +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 46 | New Orleans Saints +7 |
| Backfield | 45 | 53 | San Francisco 49ers +8 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 49 | New Orleans Saints +6 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 49 | New Orleans Saints +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-14 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)