# Las Vegas Raiders v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 9 – 20 Los Angeles Chargers

_Los Angeles Chargers bolt past Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 6 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 34% / Los Angeles Chargers 66% · Allegiant Stadium · Tue, 16 Sept, 12:00 pm AEST

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: none · Los Angeles Chargers: Keenan Allen (15' Tipped ⚡), Quentin Johnston (28')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 66% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2025, 12:00 pm_

Las Vegas Raiders 9–20 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 2 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders 20-9 at Allegiant Stadium. Take one look at that scoreline and you'd guess a tight, defensive arm-wrestle. You'd be wrong. The Chargers were +20.1 in offensive EPA on the day, Raiders sitting at minus 25.5. An eleven-point gap on the board, but the underlying number says the actual gulf was much wider than that.

The Chargers had it in hand early. Keenan Allen opened the scoring with 28 seconds left in the first quarter, and Las Vegas never got a look at parity from there. Quentin Johnston made it 16-6 with two minutes left in the second, and by half-time it was 17-6. Las Vegas added a field goal to get to 9 in the second half but never found the end zone, full stop. Nine points from three quarters of trying is not a comeback, it's a search party.

The yardage tells the same story with different numbers. Chargers 323 total yards to 248, 242 through the air to 180, and 81 on the ground to 68. First downs were close, 22 to 21, so this wasn't a case of the Raiders never getting a fresh set of downs. It's what happened once they had the ball that hurt them.

Three turnovers against one will do that. Geno Smith went 24-of-43 for 180 yards and threw three interceptions, and against a Chargers pass rush that got home three times, that ratio was never going to hold up. Justin Herbert, by contrast, was efficient rather than spectacular: 19-of-27 for 242 yards and two touchdowns. Quentin Johnston did the damage on the receiving end, three catches for 71 yards and the score, comfortably the game's top target.

On the ground, Ashton Jeanty was the one bright spot for Las Vegas, 43 yards on 11 carries and the clear top rusher on either side. Problem is a lead back doing solid work in a losing effort with the passing game bleeding turnovers doesn't move the needle much.

The positional read explains a fair bit of this before a snap was even played. Chargers came in rated higher at quarterback (75 to 58), backfield (54 to 34) and special teams (76 to 64), and those are exactly the areas that showed up: Herbert's clean outing, the Raiders' rushing attack going nowhere fast relative to expectation, the Chargers pulling away with room to spare. Las Vegas did hold an edge in pass rush and secondary on paper, and the sack count (3 to 2, Chargers' favour) suggests even that didn't fully convert.

Form coming in had the Chargers scoring at 29.4 a game to the Raiders' 18.6, and averaging an 8-point margin against Las Vegas's 1.4. Nine points and a blowout in the efficiency numbers lines up with that gap more than it does with the final scoreboard.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles Chargers at 66% to win, expected them by 2.9, and pegged the total at 46. They got the winner right and the margin wasn't far off the mark, 2.9 projected against 11 actual. The total missed low, 29 points played out against a expected 46, which tells you this one was decided by defence and turnovers rather than a shootout. Wins and misses, all of it, but the read on who'd win and by roughly how much held up fine.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 248 | Total Yards | **323** |
| 180 | Passing Yards | **242** |
| 68 | Rushing Yards | **81** |
| 21 | First Downs | **22** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -25.5 | Offensive EPA | **-5.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Chargers to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 2.9 was reasonable against the actual 11-point result. The game's 29 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 17 points below Clay Martin's career average of 46. Los Angeles Chargers's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, Los Angeles Chargers have a 44% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.51 (edge -0.2%) — model probability 66.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 66% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Chargers sit 117 ELO points clear, 1547 to 1429. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 2.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Chargers to win, not to win big.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 31-14 in 2025 Week 13.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $2.64 and Los Angeles Chargers $1.51, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Las Vegas Raiders 4 · Los Angeles Chargers 8 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 31-14 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Jim Harbaugh |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $2.64 · Los Angeles Chargers $1.51 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0W–5L | 0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4W–5L | 44% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Los Angeles Chargers have won 4 of 9 games (44%), significantly stronger than Las Vegas Raiders's 0 from 5 (0%). Small sample (5 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.6pts | Avg Score | 29.4pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.4pts |
| 1.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W15 L · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L · W1 W | 18.6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · WC L · W1 W | 29.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Los Angeles Chargers | 31 – 14 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2025 | W2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 9 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 34 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 22 – 10 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W15 | Las Vegas Raiders | 63 – 21 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.94 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 4/16g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 10/17g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zamir White | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/17g | 7% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/13g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Najee Harris | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.07 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Dissly | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · new club · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton — 0 TDs in last 1 · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: Q.Johnston

**Las Vegas Raiders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 1 TD in last 1 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1429 · Los Angeles Chargers 1547 · ELO difference: 117 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 58 | 75 | Los Angeles Chargers +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 56 | Even |
| Backfield | 34 | 54 | Los Angeles Chargers +20 |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 51 | Las Vegas Raiders +9 |
| Secondary | 63 | 49 | Las Vegas Raiders +14 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 76 | Los Angeles Chargers +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-16 02:00 UTC (latest tip update)