# Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 29 – 28 Denver Broncos

_Indianapolis Colts fight back to bolt past Denver Broncos._

Half time: 20 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 64% / Denver Broncos 36% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 15 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones (16'), Jonathan Taylor (29' Tipped ⚡) · Denver Broncos: Mims (7'), Troy Franklin (20'), Adam Trautman (27'), J.K. Dobbins (34' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 64% | Won |
| Denver Broncos | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2025, 06:05 am_

Indianapolis Colts 29–28 Denver Broncos in NFL Week 2 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos went into this one rated the stronger side, 1555 to 1483 on Alphr's numbers, and the margin model had them winning by 0.7 points. The win probability model saw it differently, backing Indianapolis Colts at 64 percent. Split the difference and you get roughly what happened: a game decided by a single point, Colts 29, Broncos 28. The margin model was closer to right on the gap, the probability model right on the winner. It's not often both halves of a forecast pull in opposite directions and both end up defensible, but that's what this one delivered.

The scoreboard backs it up. Marvin Mims Jr. opened the scoring for Denver in the first quarter, and it was 6-7 at the break of that term. The lead changed hands repeatedly through the second: Daniel Jones got Indianapolis in front, Troy Franklin tied it back up for Denver, then Adam Trautman put the Broncos up 20-13. Jonathan Taylor answered right before halftime, and Denver went to the sheds up 21-20. J.K. Dobbins extended that lead early in the third, 27-20, and by the end of the quarter it was 28-23 Denver's way. Indianapolis had to find the last three points of the night in the fourth quarter alone, and they did, closing it out 29-28.

The yardage explains why the Colts kept finding a way back into it even while trailing for most of the second half. 483 total yards to 324, 38 first downs to 29, and a rushing game that ground out 167 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, who led all rushers with 165 on 25 carries. That's the Colts' backfield rating, 71 against Denver's 51, showing up exactly where you'd expect. Denver had no real answ

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 29 |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **483** | Total Yards | 324 |
| **316** | Passing Yards | 206 |
| **167** | Rushing Yards | 118 |
| **38** | First Downs | 29 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| 10.1 | Offensive EPA | **10.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Indianapolis Colts to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 11 points above Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Indianapolis Colts's victory aligns with Craig Wrolstad's historical trend, Indianapolis Colts have a 57% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $2.10 (edge +16.7%) — model probability 64.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 1 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Indianapolis Colts are the call at 64%, but Denver Broncos stay live at 36%. The ratings say otherwise: Denver Broncos sit 72 ELO points clear, 1555 to 1483, so the model is backing Indianapolis Colts against the ratings gap. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Denver Broncos.

On paper Denver Broncos shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with Indianapolis Colts, which says Secondary and Recent Form carry the most weight. Lean Indianapolis Colts, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Indianapolis Colts have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Indianapolis Colts took the most recent meeting 29-28 in 2025 Week 2.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Daniel Jones starts under centre for Indianapolis Colts, Bo Nix for Denver Broncos, with Shane Steichen and Sean Payton calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Indianapolis Colts $2.10 and Denver Broncos $1.77, with the spread at Denver Broncos -2.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Indianapolis Colts 8 · Denver Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Indianapolis Colts 29-28 (2025) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 6-3 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 away |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · Bo Nix |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Sean Payton |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $2.10 · Denver Broncos $1.77 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -2.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Indianapolis Colts

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 8W–6L | 57% |
| Denver Broncos | 6W–8L | 43% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Indianapolis Colts hold a 14-point edge: 8W–6L (57%) vs Denver Broncos's 6W–8L (43%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 28.6pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.4pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W15 L · W16 W · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W | 28.6 |
| Denver Broncos | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · WC L · W1 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Indianapolis Colts lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W2 | Indianapolis Colts | 29 – 28 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W15 | Denver Broncos | 31 – 13 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2022 | W5 | Denver Broncos | 9 – 12 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2019 | W8 | Indianapolis Colts | 15 – 13 | Denver Broncos |
| 2017 | W15 | Indianapolis Colts | 13 – 25 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 2/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 10/41g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 35% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 5/25g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.90 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/32g | 8% | — | — |
| – | DJ Giddens | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 30/35g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.81 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/17g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/46g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trent Sherfield | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Denver Broncos** (2 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · new club · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Mims, T.Franklin, A.Trautman

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 55% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Tyler Warren 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 1 · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Alec Pierce — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Jones

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1483 · Denver Broncos 1555 · ELO difference: 72 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Denver Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 66 | Denver Broncos +20 |
| Receiving Corps | 55 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 71 | 51 | Indianapolis Colts +20 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 62 | Denver Broncos +10 |
| Secondary | 57 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 77 | 55 | Indianapolis Colts +22 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-14 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)