# Green Bay Packers v Washington Commanders — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 27 – 18 Washington Commanders

_Green Bay Packers muscle past Washington Commanders._

Half time: 14 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 64% / Washington Commanders 36% · Lambeau Field · Fri, 12 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Romeo Doubs (11'), Josh Jacobs (23' Tipped ⚡), Tucker Kraft (51' Tipped ⚡) · Washington Commanders: Zach Ertz (47' Tipped ⚡), Samuel (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 64% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Washington Commanders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 Sept 2025, 10:15 am_

Green Bay Packers 27–18 Washington Commanders in NFL Week 2 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Green Bay favoured by 7.3 and a total of 48. Final was 27-18, a nine-point margin on a combined 45, so the shape of the prediction held up better than most weekly reads do. The number that didn't quite line up was the profile of the two teams going in, and that's where the story sits.

Washington arrived with the better-rated quarterback on paper, 67 to 49, a stronger receiving corps and the better secondary. Jayden Daniels went 24-of-42 for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, which isn't a bad night by the raw numbers. Jordan Love was tidier without being flashy, 19-of-31 for 292 and 2 touchdowns of his own. The gap wasn't in the box score for passing yards, plenty went through the air both ways. It was in what each offence did with its snaps.

That's the Offensive EPA line, and it's not close: Green Bay at +7.9, Washington at minus 11.8. Nearly a 20-point swing in expected points across the game. Whatever the ratings said about talent on paper, the Packers were simply the more efficient team snap for snap, and 34 first downs to 23 tells the same story from a different angle.

Green Bay set the tone early. Romeo Doubs opened the scoring with 4:35 left in the first, Josh Jacobs added another with 7:38 left in the second, and by half-time it was 14-3. Washington's form coming in had them at 4-1 in their last five with a healthy scoring average, but none of that rhythm showed up in the first thirty minutes at Lambeau.

The third quarter was quiet on the scoreboard, Green Bay up 17-3 heading into the fourth, but Washington didn't fold. Zach Ertz got them to 17-9 with 13:55 to go, and for a stretch it looked like the sort of game Washington's last-five form suggested they could claw back into. Tucker Kraft answered for Green Bay to make it 23-10, and Deebo Samuel's score with 2:58 left pulled it to 27-18. Credit to Washington for making it interesting late, but the deficit built in the first half was always going to be the harder problem.

Individually, Josh Jacobs was the workhorse, 84 yards on 23 carries and a touchdown, and Green Bay's 135 rushing yards to Washington's 51 says the ground game did plenty of the heavy lifting that the passing stat lines don't fully capture. Kraft was the standout target on the day, 6 catches for 124 yards and a score, doing more with fewer touches than Washington's receiving corps managed despite their higher rating coming in.

Green

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| Washington Commanders | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| **427** | Total Yards | 251 |
| **292** | Passing Yards | 200 |
| **135** | Rushing Yards | 51 |
| **34** | First Downs | 23 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **7.9** | Offensive EPA | -11.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Green Bay Packers by 7.3 vs the actual margin of 9 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 45, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Green Bay Packers bucked the trend, Washington Commanders historically win 67% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.54 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 63.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Green Bay Packers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 7 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Green Bay Packers are the call at 64%, but Washington Commanders stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 36 ELO points clear, 1602 to 1566. Form leans Washington Commanders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Green Bay Packers.

On paper Washington Commanders shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Green Bay Packers, which says Team Rating (ELO) and Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Green Bay Packers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Green Bay Packers have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Green Bay Packers took the most recent meeting 27-18 in 2025 Week 2.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, Jayden Daniels for Washington Commanders, with Matt LaFleur and Dan Quinn calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.54 and Washington Commanders $2.54, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -3.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Green Bay Packers 8 · Washington Commanders 4 |
| Last meeting | Green Bay Packers 27-18 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 5-3 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 away |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Jayden Daniels |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Dan Quinn |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.54 · Washington Commanders $2.54 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Washington Commanders

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 3W–2L | 60% |
| Washington Commanders | 4W–2L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Washington Commanders hold a 7-point edge: 4W–2L (67%) vs Green Bay Packers's 3W–2L (60%). Small sample (5 games for Green Bay Packers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 27.0pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.2pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · WC L · W1 W | 23.6 |
| Washington Commanders | W18 W · WC W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 W | 27.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W2 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 18 | Washington Commanders |
| 2022 | W7 | Washington Commanders | 23 – 21 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2021 | W7 | Green Bay Packers | 24 – 10 | Washington Commanders |
| 2019 | W14 | Green Bay Packers | 20 – 15 | Washington Commanders |
| 2018 | W3 | Washington Commanders | 31 – 17 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (1·3·1·3·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 8/11g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.50 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.40 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/17g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/13g | 22% | — | — |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Malik Heath | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/22g | 24% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| – | Austin Ekeler | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Ben Sinnott | TE | no games | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Daniels | QB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke McCaffrey | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Brown | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Terry McLaurin | WR | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (1·2·2·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Washington Commanders** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt 🎯 — 1 TD in last 1 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Ertz 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Jayden Daniels — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Samuel

**Green Bay Packers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 59% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Packers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Doubs

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1602 · Washington Commanders 1566 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Washington Commanders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 67 | Washington Commanders +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 65 | Washington Commanders +13 |
| Backfield | 63 | 59 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 54 | Green Bay Packers +5 |
| Secondary | 54 | 64 | Washington Commanders +10 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 61 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-12 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)