# Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Detroit Lions 52 – 21 Chicago Bears

_Detroit Lions devour Chicago Bears._

Half time: 28 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Detroit Lions 91% / Chicago Bears 9% · Ford Field · Mon, 15 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs (3' Tipped ⚡), David Montgomery (13' Tipped ⚡), Brock Wright (26'), Amon-Ra St. Brown (30' Tipped ⚡), Jameson Williams (39' Tipped ⚡), Amon-Ra St. Brown (45' Tipped ⚡), Amon-Ra St. Brown (52' Tipped ⚡) · Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze (7'), Rome Odunze (28'), D'Andre Swift (49' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 91% | Won |
| Chicago Bears | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Detroit Lions 52–21 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 2 at Ford Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Detroit led 28-14 at the break and Chicago Bears never got the shot at it they needed. The Lions had already scored four times before half-time, Chicago twice, and the second half just piled on more of the same until it read 52-21 at Ford Field.

Amon-Ra St. Brown opened the scoring conversation early with a Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown making it 6-0, and from there Detroit answered every Chicago response with something bigger. Rome Odunze got the Bears within a point at 7-6, David Montgomery restored the buffer, Odunze scored again to make it 21-13, and St. Brown capped the half with six seconds left to send Detroit into the sheds up 28-14. Two Bears touchdowns, two Detroit answers, and Chicago still trailing by 14.

The third quarter was where the game actually died. Jameson Williams' score made it 38-14 by the end of the period, and Detroit opened the fourth with St. Brown's second touchdown of the night to push it to 44-14. D'Andre Swift got Chicago back to 20, but St. Brown scored a third time to close it out at 52-21. Three of Detroit's seven touchdowns came from one man.

The stat sheet backs up everything the scoreboard suggests. Detroit outgained Chicago 511 yards to 368, split 334 through the air and 177 on the ground, a rushing total that made up 35 percent of their output and points to a backfield the Bears simply couldn't handle, no surprise given Detroit's backfield rating sat at 71 against Chicago's 39 coming in. Jared Goff went 23-of-28 for 334 yards and 5 touchdowns. Caleb Williams was competent enough at 19-of-30 for 207 and 2 scores, but the interception and a defence that couldn't get off the field made his night academic.

Turnovers and pressure did the rest. Chicago coughed the ball up twice to Detroit's zero, and Detroit's pass rush got home four times while the Bears managed none. That's the kind of gap that shows up in the efficiency numbers too: Detroit finished plus-34.4 in offensive EPA, Chicago at minus-10.6. Snap for snap, this wasn't close.

Odunze was Chicago's one real bright spot, seven catches for 128 yards and both of the Bears' non-Swift touchdowns, but one strong receiver against a Detroit receiving corps rated 72 to Chicago's 46 was never going to be enough. Gibbs led all rushers with 94 yards on just 12 carries and a score, which tells you how easily Detroit moved the ball whenever they wanted to lean on it.

Alphr's model had Detroit at 91 percent to win, and that part landed fine. The margin was a different story: 3.9 points predicted, 31 actual, and a combined total of 73 against an expected 42. Detroit's form heading in, three wins from five against Chicago's one, plus a near-11-point favourite quarterback edge and a backfield mismatch, all pointed one way. The model just didn't see it running quite this far away.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 52 |
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| **511** | Total Yards | 368 |
| **334** | Passing Yards | 234 |
| **177** | Rushing Yards | 134 |
| **40** | First Downs | 29 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **23.8** | Offensive EPA | -10.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Detroit Lions to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 31 points. The game's 73 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The combined score of 73 points was 28 points above Land Clark's career average of 45. Detroit Lions's victory aligns with Land Clark's historical trend, Detroit Lions have a 80% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.37 (edge +18.0%) — model probability 91.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 4 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Detroit Lions here: 91% to see off Chicago Bears. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Detroit Lions sit 193 ELO points clear, 1603 to 1409. Form leans Detroit Lions' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Chicago Bears.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Detroit Lions by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 42. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Detroit Lions to win, not to win big.

Detroit Lions have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Detroit Lions took the most recent meeting 19-16 in 2025 Week 18.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Jared Goff starts under centre for Detroit Lions, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

The market has Detroit Lions favourites, Detroit Lions $1.37 and Chicago Bears $3.20, with the spread at Detroit Lions -6 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Detroit Lions 8 · Chicago Bears 4 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 19-16 (2025) |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-3 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Ben Johnson |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.37 · Chicago Bears $3.20 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Detroit Lions

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 4W–1L | 80% |
| Chicago Bears | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 42% · Home bias: Leans away

When Land Clark officiates, Detroit Lions have won 4 of 5 games (80%), significantly stronger than Chicago Bears's 2 from 6 (33%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 42%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (5 games for Detroit Lions).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 29.8pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.8pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · DIV L · W1 L | 29.8 |
| Chicago Bears | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Detroit Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Chicago Bears | 16 – 19 | Detroit Lions |
| 2025 | W2 | Detroit Lions | 52 – 21 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 17 – 34 | Detroit Lions |
| 2024 | W13 | Detroit Lions | 23 – 20 | Chicago Bears |
| 2023 | W14 | Chicago Bears | 28 – 13 | Detroit Lions |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 18/35g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 45' 52' |
| – | Brock Wright | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 6/24g | 18% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Craig Reynolds | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/18g | 4% | — | — |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 14/21g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 0 in 1g | 14/10g (1·2·0·1·2·1·1·4·2·0) | 3/4g | 21/19g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.68 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.30 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 7/19g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/38g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/32g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam LaPorta | TE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 14/19g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 7' 28' |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 15/22g | 30% | 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/7g | 3/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tyson Bagent | QB | no games | 2/9g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (1 pick)
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Odunze, D.Swift

**Detroit Lions** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 1 pass) · model 61% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ David Montgomery 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q2, Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Jameson Williams — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Sam LaPorta — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Wright

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1603 · Chicago Bears 1409 · ELO difference: 193 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 62 | 47 | Detroit Lions +15 |
| Receiving Corps | 72 | 46 | Detroit Lions +26 |
| Backfield | 71 | 39 | Detroit Lions +32 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 64 | 52 | Detroit Lions +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 91%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-14 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)