# Dallas Cowboys v New York Giants — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dallas Cowboys 40 – 37 New York Giants

_Dallas Cowboys fight back to rope in New York Giants._

Half time: 10 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dallas Cowboys 17% / New York Giants 83% · AT&T Stadium · Mon, 15 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Dallas Cowboys: KaVontae Turpin (28'), Javonte Williams (38' Tipped ⚡), Miles Sanders (54'), George Pickens (60' Tipped ⚡) · New York Giants: Malik Nabers (25' Tipped ⚡), Cam Skattebo (48'), Wan'Dale Robinson (58' Tipped ⚡), Malik Nabers (60' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 83% | Lost |
| Dallas Cowboys | 17% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Dallas Cowboys 40–37 New York Giants in NFL Week 2 at AT&T Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventy-seven points on the board and it still wasn't enough to settle inside sixty minutes. Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants 40-37 in overtime at AT&T Stadium, and that single number, 77, tells you everything about the kind of afternoon this was. The model had this game at 49 points combined. It missed by 28.

Neither defence showed up in any meaningful sense. Dallas gave up 534 yards, New York gave up 496, and both sides had a turnover apiece, which meant nothing separated them on the ledger that usually decides these things. The Giants actually won the yardage battle and got three sacks to Dallas's two. None of it mattered, because this was always going to come down to whoever had the ball last.

The scoreboard barely sat still. New York led 13-10 at the break after a low-key first half, then it turned into a shootout. Dallas grabbed a 17-16 edge through three quarters, and from there it was a full arm-wrestle: Cam Skattebo's score put the Giants back in front, Miles Sanders answered, Wan'Dale Robinson put New York up again with 2:50 left, George Pickens dragged Dallas back in front with 56 seconds on the clock, and Malik Nabers levelled it at 37-37 with 33 seconds left. Regulation ended locked. Dallas found the extra points in overtime and that was that.

Nabers was the best player on the field regardless of result. Nine catches, 167 yards, two touchdowns, and he was the one who forced overtime in the first place. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards and three touchdowns on 30 of 41, numbers that would win most games. They didn't win this one. Dak Prescott was busier but less efficient, 38 of 52 for 361 yards and two touchdowns, leaning on Javonte Williams underneath, who ran 18 times for 97 yards and a score, comfortably the best rushing output either side produced.

That rushing gap is worth sitting on. Dallas ran for 135 yards to New York's 84, and the pre-match positional read had Dallas's backfield rated well clear, 52 to 37. On a day when both secondaries leaked yards through the air, having a ground game to lean on in the fourth quarter and overtime was the difference between chasing points and controlling them.

New York had the better rated receiving corps coming in, 54 to 48, and Nabers made that case himself. But Dallas's special teams edge, 75 to 54 pre-match, is exactly the kind of quiet advantage that turns into the winning score in overtime when everything else is dead level.

Alphr's model had New York as 83% favourites here, rating them 1371 to Dallas's 1465 with the Cowboys still favoured by 3.9 on points. The margin read held up well, Dallas by 3 against a predicted 3.9. The win probability did not. Dallas came into this on a two-loss slide, New York on their own rough patch, and neither team's recent form pointed at a track meet like this. Wins and misses, all of it. The margin call was close enough to trust. The shootout wasn't in the script.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 40 |
| New York Giants | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 37 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 496 | Total Yards | **534** |
| 361 | Passing Yards | **450** |
| **135** | Rushing Yards | 84 |
| **44** | First Downs | 36 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 11.1 | Offensive EPA | **14.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Dallas Cowboys defied the model's 83% prediction for New York Giants, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dallas Cowboys by 3.9 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 77 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 49. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 77 points was 32 points above Bill Vinovich's career average of 45.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New York Giants to win @ $2.95 (edge +49.3%) — model probability 83.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 4 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New York Giants here: 83% to see off Dallas Cowboys. The ratings say otherwise: Dallas Cowboys sit 94 ELO points clear, 1465 to 1371, so the model is backing New York Giants against the ratings gap. Form leans Dallas Cowboys' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Giants.

On paper Dallas Cowboys shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Recent Form and Rest Advantage. The model still sides with New York Giants, which says Pass Rush and Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has Dallas Cowboys by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 49. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back New York Giants to win, not to win big.

Dallas Cowboys have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and New York Giants took the most recent meeting 34-17 in 2025 Week 18.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 1-8 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Dak Prescott starts under centre for Dallas Cowboys, Russell Wilson for New York Giants, with Brian Schottenheimer and Brian Daboll calling the shots.

Dallas Cowboys come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Dallas Cowboys favourites, Dallas Cowboys $1.42 and New York Giants $2.95, with the spread at Dallas Cowboys -4.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Dallas Cowboys 10 · New York Giants 2 |
| Last meeting | New York Giants 34-17 (2025) |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 4-4 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 1-8 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · Russell Wilson |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Brian Daboll |
| Rest | Dallas Cowboys 10d · New York Giants 7d |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $1.42 · New York Giants $2.95 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 13W–9L | 59% |
| New York Giants | 7W–5L | 58% |

Avg total: 44.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Bill Vinovich, Dallas Cowboys 13W–9L (59%) and New York Giants 7W–5L (58%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 17.0pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 28.6pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | -11.6pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · W1 L | 20.4 |
| New York Giants | W15 L · W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L | 17.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | New York Giants | 34 – 17 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2025 | W2 | Dallas Cowboys | 40 – 37 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W13 | Dallas Cowboys | 27 – 20 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W4 | New York Giants | 15 – 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2023 | W10 | Dallas Cowboys | 49 – 17 | New York Giants |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AT&T Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 25/42g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 22/65g | 12% | — | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/22g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/18g | 28% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/26g | 20% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Miles Sanders | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Beaux Collins | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Malik Nabers | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 25' 60' |
| – | Russell Wilson | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 23% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Malik Nabers 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Giants: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Skattebo

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ George Pickens — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · new club · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Javonte Williams — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Cowboys: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Turpin, M.Sanders

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1465 · New York Giants 1371 · ELO difference: 94 in favour of Dallas Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 40 | 41 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 54 | New York Giants +6 |
| Backfield | 52 | 37 | Dallas Cowboys +15 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 49 | 65 | New York Giants +16 |
| Special Teams | 75 | 54 | Dallas Cowboys +21 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Giants |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Dallas Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — New York Giants predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-14 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)