# Cincinnati Bengals v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals 31 – 27 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Cincinnati Bengals roar back to hunt down Jacksonville Jaguars._

Half time: 10 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 49% / Jacksonville Jaguars 51% · Paycor Stadium · Mon, 15 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase (15' Tipped ⚡), Mitchell Tinsley (34'), Tee Higgins (43' Tipped ⚡), Jake Browning (60') · Jacksonville Jaguars: Dyami Brown (5'), Bhayshul Tuten (19'), Travis Etienne (41' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 51% | Lost |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Cincinnati Bengals 31–27 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 2 at Paycor Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati Bengals beat Jacksonville Jaguars 31-27 at Paycor Stadium, and the box score tells two different stories about how you're supposed to win a football game. Jacksonville did it the conventional way: outgained the home side 410 yards to 365, ran for 139 yards to Cincinnati's 48, and posted an offensive EPA of 6.5 against Cincinnati's minus-0.5. On paper, that's a beatdown. On the scoreboard, it wasn't.

Cincinnati just kept finding six points when it mattered. Ja'Marr Chase opened the account late in the first quarter to level things at 7-7, and from there it was a genuine arm wrestle. Jacksonville led 17-10 at the break off a Bhayshul Tuten score, then pushed it to 23-17 through Travis Etienne in the third before Tee Higgins hauled it back to 24-24 with under three minutes left in that quarter. Nobody led by more than seven the entire night.

The Jaguars built their night on the ground, something the pre-match numbers didn't really flag. Cincinnati actually rated ahead in the backfield, 60 to 47, yet it was Etienne leading all rushers with 71 yards on 14 carries and Jacksonville doubling up Cincinnati's rushing output. Add in three sacks to Cincinnati's one, and the Jaguars' front seven had the better of most snaps. That efficiency edge, nearly seven points of EPA, is usually enough to close a game out on its own.

It wasn't, because Cincinnati simply outscored the trend late. Jake Browning found Jake Browning himself in the record books with 0:19 left in the fourth, the go-ahead score that stuck. Browning finished 21-of-32 for 241 yards and two touchdowns, but also three interceptions, hardly a clean night through the air. Trevor Lawrence actually out-threw him on paper, 24-of-42 for 271 yards and three touchdowns against two picks, and the Jaguars won the yardage and turnover columns. Cincinnati's saving grace was Chase, who turned 14 catches into 165 yards and a score, the kind of workload that papers over a shaky passing night everywhere else.

Cincinnati's turnover count, three to Jacksonville's two, is normally the first line in a losing team's post-mort

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Total Yards | **410** |
| **317** | Passing Yards | 271 |
| 48 | Rushing Yards | **139** |
| **39** | First Downs | 35 |
| 3 | Turnovers | **2** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -0.5 | Offensive EPA | **6.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Cincinnati Bengals defied the model's 51% prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Cincinnati Bengals by 0.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 54 was close to the actual 58, within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 13 points above Alan Eck's career average of 45. Cincinnati Bengals's victory aligns with Alan Eck's historical trend, Cincinnati Bengals have a 100% win rate under this referee. Cincinnati Bengals's home victory fits Alan Eck's profile, home teams win 67% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $2.60 (edge +12.7%) — model probability 51.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 0 · Predicted total: 54

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars. The model can't split them, landing on Jacksonville Jaguars at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Cincinnati Bengals sit 116 ELO points clear, 1549 to 1434, so the model is backing Jacksonville Jaguars against the ratings gap. Form leans Cincinnati Bengals' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Jacksonville Jaguars.

On paper Cincinnati Bengals shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with Jacksonville Jaguars, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Cincinnati Bengals have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Cincinnati Bengals took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 Week 2.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Joe Burrow starts under centre for Cincinnati Bengals, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Zac Taylor and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Cincinnati Bengals favourites, Cincinnati Bengals $1.52 and Jacksonville Jaguars $2.60, with the spread at Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cincinnati Bengals 8 · Jacksonville Jaguars 4 |
| Last meeting | Cincinnati Bengals 31-27 (2025) |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 home |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Burrow · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Zac Taylor · Liam Coen |
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals $1.52 · Jacksonville Jaguars $2.60 |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cincinnati Bengals

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1W–0L | 100% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2W–1L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.5 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, Cincinnati Bengals have won 1 of 1 games (100%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 2 from 3 (67%). Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (1 games for Cincinnati Bengals).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 25.4pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · W1 W | 25.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W15 L · W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 W | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cincinnati Bengals lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 31 – 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2023 | W13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 – 34 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2021 | W4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 24 – 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2020 | W4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 33 – 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2019 | W7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 17 – 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Paycor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/15g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.68 AI 51% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/14g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (0·3·2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 14/24g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.84 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Jake Browning | QB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/6g | 29% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Joe Burrow | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/9g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Mitchell Tinsley | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·3·0·0) | 0/2g | 13/18g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 4 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 38% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Jaguars: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Brown, B.Tuten

**Cincinnati Bengals** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 52% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 51% · no TD
- ⚡ Tee Higgins — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Mike Gesicki — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Tinsley, J.Browning

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cincinnati Bengals 1549 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1434 · ELO difference: 116 in favour of Cincinnati Bengals

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 58 | 49 | Cincinnati Bengals +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 61 | Even |
| Backfield | 60 | 47 | Cincinnati Bengals +13 |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 54 | Cincinnati Bengals +8 |
| Secondary | 62 | 61 | Even |
| Special Teams | 60 | 73 | Jacksonville Jaguars +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Jacksonville Jaguars favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 54 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-14 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)