# Baltimore Ravens v Cleveland Browns — NFL Week 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 41 – 17 Cleveland Browns

_Baltimore Ravens swoop on Cleveland Browns._

Half time: 10 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 95% / Cleveland Browns 5% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 15 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Tylan Wallace (19'), Devontez Walker (35'), Devontez Walker (47'), Roquan Smith (52'), DeAndre Hopkins (56') · Cleveland Browns: Cedric Tillman (40'), Dylan Sampson (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 95% | Won |
| Cleveland Browns | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 17.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Baltimore Ravens 41–17 Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 2 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At the half, this looked like a genuine contest. Baltimore led Cleveland just 10-3 at M&T Bank Stadium, a game built on a field goal and a Tylan Wallace touchdown that made it 9-0 late in the second quarter, with the Browns keeping it within a converted try heading into the break.

The second half tore that picture up. Baltimore finished 41-17 winners, a 24-point margin that bore no resemblance to the tight arithmetic of the first two quarters. Whatever Cleveland had going for it early, it didn't survive contact with the third and fourth.

The scoring after halftime came in waves. Devontez Walker opened it up early in the third quarter to make it 19-3, Cedric Tillman answered for Cleveland to get the Browns to 20-9, and it stayed a two-score game through to the end of the third at 20-10. Then Baltimore went to work in the fourth: Walker's second touchdown made it 26-10, R.Smith extended it to 33-10, and DeAndre Hopkins made

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 41 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 270 | Total Yards | **333** |
| **225** | Passing Yards | 218 |
| 45 | Rushing Yards | **115** |
| 22 | First Downs | **27** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| **6.2** | Offensive EPA | -18.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 95% probability. The predicted margin of 17.5 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 13 points above Brad Allen's career average of 45. Baltimore Ravens's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, Baltimore Ravens have a 73% win rate under this referee. Baltimore Ravens's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.11 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 94.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 18 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 95% to see off Cleveland Browns. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 247 ELO points clear, 1634 to 1387. Form leans Baltimore Ravens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Cleveland Browns.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 17.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 23-16 in 2025 Week 11.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Joe Flacco for Cleveland Browns, with John Harbaugh and Kevin Stefanski calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.11 and Cleveland Browns $7.00, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -12.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Baltimore Ravens 8 · Cleveland Browns 4 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 23-16 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 away |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Joe Flacco |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Kevin Stefanski |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.11 · Cleveland Browns $7.00 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -12.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 11W–4L | 73% |
| Cleveland Browns | 4W–11L | 27% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 11 of 15 games (73%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 4 from 15 (27%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 31.8pts | Avg Score | 8.4pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 13.0pts | Avg Margin | -15.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W17 W · W18 W · WC W · DIV L · W1 L | 31.8 |
| Cleveland Browns | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 L | 8.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Cleveland Browns | 16 – 23 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2025 | W2 | Baltimore Ravens | 41 – 17 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W18 | Baltimore Ravens | 35 – 10 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W8 | Cleveland Browns | 29 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2023 | W10 | Baltimore Ravens | 31 – 33 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 2 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2·1·2) | 5/7g | 13/11g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.43 AI 69% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.30 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 6/13g | 20/56g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 6/18g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 40% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cooper Rush | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | no games | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 35' 47' |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/38g | 22% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 11/14g | 26/56g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 6/28g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/18g | 7% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Zaire Mitchell-Paden | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 19% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Carter | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Dillon Gabriel | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamari Thrash | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 20% | 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cleveland Browns** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Dylan Sampson 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 1 · model 46% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Browns: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Tillman

**Baltimore Ravens** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 0 pass) · model 69% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Lamar Jackson — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashod Bateman — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Wallace, D.Walker, R.Smith, D.Hopkins

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1634 · Cleveland Browns 1387 · ELO difference: 247 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 37 | Baltimore Ravens +23 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 51 | Baltimore Ravens +5 |
| Backfield | 81 | 63 | Baltimore Ravens +18 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 47 | Baltimore Ravens +5 |
| Special Teams | 76 | 39 | Baltimore Ravens +37 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 95%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 18 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r2-baltimore-ravens-v-cleveland-browns
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-09-14 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)