# San Francisco 49ers v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 3 – 13 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks ride the wave past San Francisco 49ers._

Half time: 3 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 79% / Seattle Seahawks 21% · Levi's Stadium · Sun, 04 Jan, 12:00 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: none · Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (11' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 79% | Lost |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Jan 2026, 12:00 pm_

San Francisco 49ers 3–13 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 18 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Zach Charbonnet crossed with 4:37 left in the first quarter and San Francisco never got the game back to level. Seattle led 7 nil before the opening term was out and never trailed again. Final score: Seahawks 13, 49ers 3.

That early strike set the shape of the whole afternoon. San Francisco clawed three points back before half-time, trailing 10-3 at the break, and that's as close as it got. The third quarter passed with the board untouched, then Seattle added a field goal in the fourth to push it to 13-3 and shut the door. One touchdown, kicked forward by field position and a defence that never let the 49ers threaten the end zone again.

The yardage tells you why. Seattle ran up 378 total yards to San Francisco's 180, and 180 of those Seahawks yards came on the ground alone, meaning nearly half their output was rushing. Kenneth Walker III did the heavy lifting, 97 yards on 16 carries, and against a 49ers backfield rated 66 to Seattle's 61 coming in, that ground game punched above its billing. San Francisco managed just 53 rushing yards all day. When one side is grinding out that much on the ground and the other can't get anything going, field position and clock control take care of themselves.

Through the air it was closer to a wash on paper. Brock Purdy went 19 of 27 for 127 yards with an interception, Sam Darnold 20 of 26 for 198. Purdy's the better rated quarterback on paper, 81 to Darnold's 43 in the pre-match positional numbers, but on the day Darnold was cleaner and had more help underneath, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba the game's leading target on 6 catches for 84 yards. San Francisco's receiving corps was rated the stronger unit too, 76 to 63, and it barely mattered when the ground game and the turnover column were working against them.

Those numbers underneath the score are where the game was actually decided. Seattle out-produced San Francisco on offensive EPA by 17.3 points snap for snap, got home on the quarterback three times to two, and won the turnover battle outright, with San Francisco's lone giveaway the only one either side coughed up. First downs went 32 to 17 the Seahawks' way. That's not a stat line that leaves much room for argument.

For a 49ers side that had won five straight and was averaging 34.6 points a game coming in, three points at home is about as flat a return as it gets. San Francisco's issue wasn't effort, it was that nothing clicked at once: the run game never got moving, the pass rush let Darnold find his targets, and the one turnover they did commit came at a cost they couldn't afford against a side content to sit on a lead.

Alphr's model had San Francisco favoured by 7.7 points and gave them a 79% chance of winning, with a combined total near 51. None of that held up. Seattle won by 10 instead of losing by roughly eight, and the total finished at 16, some 35 points shy of the projection. A result that flips the model's read this hard is exactly the kind Alphr tracks openly, wins and misses both, and this one's filed firmly under misses.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 180 | Total Yards | **378** |
| 127 | Passing Yards | **198** |
| 53 | Rushing Yards | **180** |
| 17 | First Downs | **32** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -15.1 | Offensive EPA | **2.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Seattle Seahawks defied the model's 79% prediction for San Francisco 49ers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 10 points. The game's 16 points came in 35 points lower than the predicted 51. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 16 points was 29 points below Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Bill Vinovich's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 78% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $2.24 (edge +34.2%) — model probability 78.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 8 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on San Francisco 49ers here: 79% to see off Seattle Seahawks. The ratings say otherwise: Seattle Seahawks sit 77 ELO points clear, 1681 to 1604, so the model is backing San Francisco 49ers against the ratings gap.

On paper Seattle Seahawks shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Secondary. The model still sides with San Francisco 49ers, which says Quarterback carry the most weight. The margin model has San Francisco 49ers by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 51. San Francisco 49ers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 41-6 in 2025 the Divisional round.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Kyle Shanahan and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, San Francisco 49ers $2.24 and Seattle Seahawks $1.68, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -2.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | San Francisco 49ers 7 · Seattle Seahawks 5 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 41-6 (2025) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $2.24 · Seattle Seahawks $1.68 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -2.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 8W–9L | 47% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14W–4L | 78% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Bill Vinovich officiates, Seattle Seahawks have won 14 of 18 games (78%), significantly stronger than San Francisco 49ers's 8 from 17 (47%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 34.6pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 13.4pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W12 W · W13 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W | 34.6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | DIV | Seattle Seahawks | 41 – 6 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2025 | W18 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 – 13 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2025 | W1 | Seattle Seahawks | 13 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W11 | San Francisco 49ers | 17 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W6 | Seattle Seahawks | 24 – 36 | San Francisco 49ers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 17 in 16g | 13/10g (2·0·2·0·3·1·1·1·2·1) | 8/8g | 29/28g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 1/10g | 11/37g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 8/15g | 27/65g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 2/7g | 10/29g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/16g | 10/63g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 0/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/34g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 11 in 15g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 10 in 16g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.98 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Cam Akers | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1604 · Seattle Seahawks 1681 · ELO difference: 77 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 81 | 43 | San Francisco 49ers +38 |
| Receiving Corps | 76 | 63 | San Francisco 49ers +13 |
| Backfield | 66 | 61 | San Francisco 49ers +5 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 53 | 66 | Seattle Seahawks +13 |
| Special Teams | 62 | 84 | Seattle Seahawks +22 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)