# Pittsburgh Steelers v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – 24 Baltimore Ravens

_Pittsburgh Steelers surge back to grind down Baltimore Ravens._

Half time: 3 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 11% / Baltimore Ravens 89% · Acrisure Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Pittsburgh Steelers: Connor Heyward (37'), Kenny Gainwell (57'), Austin (59') · Baltimore Ravens: Devontez Walker (4'), Zay Flowers (52' Tipped ⚡), Zay Flowers (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 89% | Lost |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 11% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 12:20 pm_

Pittsburgh Steelers 26–24 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 18 at Acrisure Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens 26-24 at Acrisure Stadium, a game that stayed within a single score all the way to the final minute. But the number that actually complicates the result is offensive EPA, where Baltimore finished ahead 6.9 to 4.3. By the metric the model rates most heavily, the Ravens were the better offence on the day. The scoreboard just didn't agree.

That tension was there before kickoff. Alphr's model had Baltimore as 5.3-point favourites and gave them an 89 per cent chance of winning, on the back of ratings that favoured the Ravens across the backfield (71 to 67), secondary (60 to 57) and special teams (60 to 55). Pittsburgh's edges were at quarterback (55 to 42) and pass rush (54 to 51), and in the end those were the two areas that mattered.

At half-time it looked like the model had it right. Baltimore led 10-3, with Devontez Walker's early touchdown setting the tone in the first quarter. But the raw yardage told a different story all game long. Pittsburgh finished with 394 total yards to Baltimore's 375, and the first-down count was lopsided: 36 for the Steelers against just 16 for the Ravens. That's the kind of gap that usually shows up as a blowout, not a two-point squeaker.

Turnovers and pressure explain some of the gap between the stat sheet and the scoreline. Baltimore coughed the ball up once to Pittsburgh's none, and the Steelers' pass rush got home three times to the Ravens' two. Neither is a huge number on its own, but in a game this tight, both mattered.

Pittsburgh's comeback started in the third quarter. Connor Heyward's touchdown with 8:24 left in the period cut it to 9-10, and the Steelers went into the fourth quarter up 13-10, their first lead of the game. It didn't last long, and it didn't stay settled either.

The fourth quarter was a genuine shootout. Zay Flowers scored his second touchdown of the day at the 8:52 mark to put Baltimore back in front 16-13. Kenny Gainwell answered for Pittsburgh at 3:53, making it 19

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 26 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| **394** | Total Yards | 375 |
| **294** | Passing Yards | 238 |
| 100 | Rushing Yards | **137** |
| **36** | First Downs | 16 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 4.3 | Offensive EPA | **6.9** |

**Model Report Card**

Pittsburgh Steelers defied the model's 89% prediction for Baltimore Ravens, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.3 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Shawn Smith's career average of 47. Pittsburgh Steelers bucked the trend, Baltimore Ravens historically win 70% of games under Shawn Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.44 (edge +19.5%) — model probability 88.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 5 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 89% to see off Pittsburgh Steelers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 50 ELO points clear, 1578 to 1528. Form leans Pittsburgh Steelers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Baltimore Ravens.

On paper Pittsburgh Steelers shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Quarterback and Recent Form. The model still sides with Baltimore Ravens, which says Team Rating (ELO) carry the most weight. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Baltimore Ravens to win, not to win big.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Pittsburgh Steelers took the most recent meeting 26-24 in 2025 Week 18.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Aaron Rodgers starts under centre for Pittsburgh Steelers, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Pittsburgh Steelers $2.85 and Baltimore Ravens $1.44, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -4.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Pittsburgh Steelers 9 · Baltimore Ravens 3 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 26-24 (2025) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 6-3 home |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Aaron Rodgers · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Mike Tomlin · John Harbaugh |
| Market | Pittsburgh Steelers $2.85 · Baltimore Ravens $1.44 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -4.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5W–4L | 56% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7W–3L | 70% |

Avg total: 47.4 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Baltimore Ravens hold a 14-point edge: 7W–3L (70%) vs Pittsburgh Steelers's 5W–4L (56%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.4pts | Avg Score | 25.0pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| -0.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W13 L · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L | 19.4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W13 L · W14 L · W15 W · W16 L · W17 W | 25.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2025 | W14 | Baltimore Ravens | 22 – 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | WC | Baltimore Ravens | 28 – 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | W16 | Baltimore Ravens | 34 – 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | W11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 – 16 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Acrisure Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 4/31g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 4/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/25g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.75 AI 17% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 3/28g | 10% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Scott Miller | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 16 in 16g | 12/10g (2·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·2·4) | 5/7g | 2/2g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.70 AI 48% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' 58' |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.75 AI 19% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 0 pass) · model 48% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · no TD
- ⚡ Keaton Mitchell — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 19% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Walker

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Pat Freiermuth 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 17% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: Co.Heyward, K.Gainwell, C.Austin

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Pittsburgh Steelers 1528 · Baltimore Ravens 1578 · ELO difference: 50 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 55 | 42 | Pittsburgh Steelers +13 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 49 | Even |
| Backfield | 67 | 71 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 60 | Even |
| Special Teams | 55 | 60 | Baltimore Ravens +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-05 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)