# Philadelphia Eagles v Washington Commanders — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 17 – 24 Washington Commanders

_Washington Commanders survive a scare against Philadelphia Eagles._

Half time: 7 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 91% / Washington Commanders 9% · Lincoln Financial Field · Mon, 05 Jan, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: Grant Calcaterra (17'), Tank Bigsby (39' Tipped ⚡) · Washington Commanders: Rodriguez (21'), John Bates (51'), Josh Johnson (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 91% | Lost |
| Washington Commanders | 9% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 08:25 am_

Philadelphia Eagles 17–24 Washington Commanders in NFL Week 18 at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Philadelphia did most of the things you're supposed to do to win a football game and still lost it. The Eagles finished with 321 total yards to Washington's 274, won first downs 31 to 28, and turned the ball over just once against Washington's two. On the stat sheet that's a winning performance. On the scoreboard it's Washington Commanders 24, Philadelphia Eagles 17, at Lincoln Financial Field.

The early signs were good for Philadelphia. Grant Calcaterra opened the scoring in the second quarter, and at half-time the Eagles trailed 10-7, close enough given the shape of the game. Tank Bigsby then put Philadelphia in front, 13-10, with 6:33 left in the third quarter, and by the end of that period the Eagles led 17-10. Bigsby was the best runner on the field all day: 75 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown. Tanner McKee did his part through the air too, 21-of-40 for 241 yards and a score. On the numbers alone, Philadelphia had built the kind of lead that should have held.

It didn't hold, and the reasons show up clearly in the stats. Washington's pass rush got home three times. Philadelphia's got home zero. That gap matched an offensive EPA reading of minus 6.4 for the Eagles against minus 3.2 for the Commanders, a sign that plenty of Philadelphia's plays were breaking down before they had a chance to develop. Yardage totals don't capture that kind of pressure, and Philadelphia wore too much of it.

The fourth quarter is where it actually got away from them. John Bates scored for Washington with 9:40 left to make it 17-16, then Josh Johnson found the end zone with 2:37 remaining to put the Commanders up 24-17, and that's how it finished. Johnson's passing line was modest: 14-of-22 for 131 yards, a touchdown and an interception, nowhere near McKee's raw numbers. It didn't matter. Chris Rodriguez Jr. had supplied Washington's first touchdown back in the second quarter, at 9:08, and between the three scorers the Commanders made their limited chances count.

Terry McLaurin led all targets with just four catches for 57 yards, hardly a huge day for Washington's best receiver, and that's part of what makes the result sting for Philadelphia. The Commanders won this without dominating any one statistical category. They won it with three sacks, a turnover edge, and two fourth-quarter touchdowns when Philadelphia's defence needed a stop and didn't find one.

Going in, the ratings had Philadelphia stronger at quarterback and pass rush, but Washington held clear edges in receiving corps, backfield, secondary and special teams. Those areas didn't show up much in the box score, but they mattered when it counted late.

Alphr's model had Philadelphia at 91% to win, expected them by 8.7 points off ratings of 1653 to 1400, and projected a combined total of 47. The total was close enough, 41 points actual. The margin and the winner were both wrong. Philadelphia did enough on paper to fit the script and lost anyway, undone by three sacks and a fourth quarter that belonged entirely to Washington.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| Washington Commanders | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| **321** | Total Yards | 274 |
| **241** | Passing Yards | 131 |
| 80 | Rushing Yards | **143** |
| **31** | First Downs | 28 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -6.4 | Offensive EPA | **-3.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Washington Commanders defied the model's 91% prediction for Philadelphia Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.7 but the actual margin was 7 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 41, within 6 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 38.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 41 points was 4 points below Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. Washington Commanders bucked the trend, Philadelphia Eagles historically win 88% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.56 (edge +26.9%) — model probability 91.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 38.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 9 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 91% to see off Washington Commanders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 253 ELO points clear, 1653 to 1400. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Washington Commanders.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 47. Philadelphia Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Washington Commanders took the most recent meeting 24-17 in 2025 Week 18.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Marcus Mariota for Washington Commanders, with Nick Sirianni and Dan Quinn calling the shots.

Washington Commanders come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $1.56 and Washington Commanders $2.50, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -3 and the total at 38.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Philadelphia Eagles 8 · Washington Commanders 4 |
| Last meeting | Washington Commanders 24-17 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 away |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Marcus Mariota |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Dan Quinn |
| Rest | Philadelphia Eagles 7d · Washington Commanders 10d |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $1.56 · Washington Commanders $2.50 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -3 · total 38.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7W–1L | 88% |
| Washington Commanders | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Philadelphia Eagles have won 7 of 8 games (88%), significantly stronger than Washington Commanders's 2 from 6 (33%). Small sample (6 games for Washington Commanders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 21.4pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W13 L · W14 L · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W | 21.4 |
| Washington Commanders | W13 L · W14 L · W15 W · W16 L · W17 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Philadelphia Eagles | 17 – 24 | Washington Commanders |
| 2025 | W16 | Washington Commanders | 18 – 29 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | CONF | Philadelphia Eagles | 55 – 23 | Washington Commanders |
| 2024 | W16 | Washington Commanders | 36 – 33 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | W11 | Philadelphia Eagles | 26 – 18 | Washington Commanders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 19/44g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/6g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 19% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| – | AJ Dillon | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Grant Calcaterra | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/15g | 2% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tanner McKee | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/13g | 3% | — | — |

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.70 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Terry McLaurin | WR | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/14g | 3/7g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Sinnott | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | John Bates | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Josh Johnson | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | River Cracraft | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Washington Commanders** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Bates, J.Johnson

**Philadelphia Eagles** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Tank Bigsby 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 19% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Eagles: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: G.Calcaterra

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1653 · Washington Commanders 1400 · ELO difference: 253 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Commanders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 44 | Philadelphia Eagles +8 |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 49 | Washington Commanders +5 |
| Backfield | 43 | 56 | Washington Commanders +13 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 52 | Philadelphia Eagles +6 |
| Secondary | 40 | 57 | Washington Commanders +17 |
| Special Teams | 54 | 61 | Washington Commanders +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Washington Commanders |

**Model Confidence: 91%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)