# New York Giants v Dallas Cowboys — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Giants 34 – 17 Dallas Cowboys

_New York Giants dwarf Dallas Cowboys._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Giants 21% / Dallas Cowboys 79% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Giants: Daniel Bellinger (30'), Tracy (36'), Devin Singletary (55' Tipped ⚡) · Dallas Cowboys: Jaydon Blue (15'), Phil Mafah (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 79% | Lost |
| New York Giants | 21% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 05:00 am_

New York Giants 34–17 Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 18 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New York Giants ground it out. Dallas Cowboys tried to strike quick. By the final whistle it was 34-17 to the home side, and the contrast between the two game plans explains most of it.

Dallas got the early jump, Jaydon Blue in for six with 32 seconds left in the first, and they led 10-6 at the break of that quarter. But New York Giants had already made the shift that would define the night: patient drives, the ball on the ground, four quarters of just wearing Dallas down. Daniel Bellinger's score just before half-time put them 16-10 up at the main break, and from there Dallas Cowboys never got the lead back.

The third quarter was where the gap opened properly. Tyrone Tracy Jr. crossed with 9:53 left in it to make it 22-10, and by the end of the quarter New York Giants led 24-10. Phil Mafah got Dallas Cowboys within seven to open the fourth, but Devin Singletary's touchdown with 5:54 to go shut the door for good, 33-17, before a late score rounded it out to 34-17.

The yardage battle tells the ball-control story plainly enough: 391 total yards to 286, and 161 of New York Giants' output came on the ground, 41 per cent of everything they did. That's not an accident against a Dallas Cowboys pass rush that got home four times. New York Giants simply took the air out of the game whenever Dallas threatened to speed it up, and their offensive EPA of 15.2 against Dallas Cowboys' minus 6.9 says who was actually in control snap to snap.

Jaxson Dart didn't need to force much, 22 of 32 for 230 yards and two touchdowns, patient and clean. Joe Milton III didn't get the same support, 7 of 13 for just 73 yards and an interception, with Dallas Cowboys' passing game strangled to 143 yards for the game. Tyrone Tracy Jr. led every rusher on the field, 103 yards on 18 carries, doing exactly the kind of unglamorous, clock-eating work that this game plan needed. Gunner Olszewski was arguably Dallas Cowboys' one bright spark, 8 catches for 102 yards, but it came in a losing effort with little support around it.

Turnovers mattered too. Dallas Cowboys coughed it up twice to New York Giants' once, and against a side controlling first downs 36 to 25, those extra chances were costly. Dallas Cowboys' pass rush numbers, four sacks to zero, look good on paper but didn't translate to stopping the bleeding on the ground or on the scoreboard.

Going in, the ratings had Dallas Cowboys stronger through the quarterback spot, receiving corps and special teams, and Alphr's model had them favoured by 5.7 points with a 79 per cent win probability. New York Giants' one edge on paper was the backfield, rated 59 to 44, and it turned out to be the difference that mattered most. The model called for a tight Dallas Cowboys win. What actually turned up was a 17-point statement built on legs, patience and a Dallas Cowboys turnover count that never let them settle. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one was a miss worth remembering.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 6 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Giants | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **391** | Total Yards | 286 |
| **230** | Passing Yards | 143 |
| **161** | Rushing Yards | 143 |
| **36** | First Downs | 25 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| **15.2** | Offensive EPA | -6.9 |

**Model Report Card**

New York Giants defied the model's 79% prediction for Dallas Cowboys, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 17 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 7 points above Adrian Hill's career average of 44. New York Giants bucked the trend, Dallas Cowboys historically win 71% of games under Adrian Hill, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.60 (edge +16.2%) — model probability 78.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 6 · Predicted total: 57

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dallas Cowboys here: 79% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dallas Cowboys sit 126 ELO points clear, 1469 to 1343. Form leans Dallas Cowboys' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Giants.

Dallas Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Dallas Cowboys by 5.7, with the two sides combining for about 57. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Dallas Cowboys to win, not to win big.

Dallas Cowboys have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and New York Giants took the most recent meeting 34-17 in 2025 Week 18.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Jaxson Dart starts under centre for New York Giants, Dak Prescott for Dallas Cowboys, with Brian Daboll and Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots.

Dallas Cowboys come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Dallas Cowboys favourites, New York Giants $2.40 and Dallas Cowboys $1.60, with the spread at Dallas Cowboys -3 and the total at 50.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Giants 2 · Dallas Cowboys 10 |
| Last meeting | New York Giants 34-17 (2025) |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 3-5 home |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 3-6 away |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jaxson Dart · Dak Prescott |
| Head coaches | Brian Daboll · Brian Schottenheimer |
| Rest | New York Giants 7d · Dallas Cowboys 10d |
| Market | New York Giants $2.40 · Dallas Cowboys $1.60 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -3 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dallas Cowboys

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 1W–8L | 11% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 44.5 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Neutral

When Adrian Hill officiates, Dallas Cowboys have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 1 from 9 (11%). Small sample (7 games for Dallas Cowboys).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Giants | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 32.6pts |
| -2.4pts | Avg Margin | -5.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | W12 L · W13 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 W | 22.0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | W13 W · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | New York Giants | 34 – 17 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2025 | W2 | Dallas Cowboys | 40 – 37 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W13 | Dallas Cowboys | 27 – 20 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W4 | New York Giants | 15 – 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2023 | W10 | Dallas Cowboys | 49 – 17 | New York Giants |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 7/21g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/15g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/25g | 6% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 12/52g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/15g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Chris Manhertz | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Dalen Cambre | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | George Pickens | WR | 9 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 2/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.75 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 2/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jaydon Blue | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Joe Milton III | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jonathan Mingo | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Phil Mafah | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 45' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ George Pickens — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Ryan Flournoy — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Blue, P.Mafah

**New York Giants** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Devin Singletary 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jaxson Dart 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Bellinger

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Giants 1343 · Dallas Cowboys 1469 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of Dallas Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 61 | Dallas Cowboys +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 56 | Dallas Cowboys +10 |
| Backfield | 59 | 44 | New York Giants +15 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 47 | New York Giants +10 |
| Secondary | 56 | 51 | New York Giants +5 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 82 | Dallas Cowboys +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Giants |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Dallas Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Dallas Cowboys predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 57 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)