# New England Patriots v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 38 – 10 Miami Dolphins

_New England Patriots run riot over Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 17 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 97% / Miami Dolphins 3% · Gillette Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson (2' Tipped ⚡), Rhamondre Stevenson (15' Tipped ⚡), Rhamondre Stevenson (38' Tipped ⚡), Rhamondre Stevenson (43' Tipped ⚡), TreVeyon Henderson (48' Tipped ⚡) · Miami Dolphins: Malik Washington (20')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 97% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.7 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 08:25 am_

New England Patriots 38–10 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 18 at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England didn't bother trying to out-throw Miami, they just ran through them. Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball seven times for 131 yards and two scores, and by the end the Patriots had 243 rushing yards to Miami's 63. That's not a game plan built on patience, that's a game plan built on shoving the same bloke into the same gap until someone falls over.

Final score was 38-10, and the 28-point margin flattered nobody, it just reflected how one-sided the approaches were. New England wanted control: run the ball, protect it, let the clock and the yardage pile up. Miami wanted something to happen, and when you're chasing a spark against a side outgaining you 457 to 200, that ambition tends to look like desperation.

Henderson opened the scoring at the 13:18 mark of the first, Stevenson added another before the quarter was out, and New England led 14-0 before Miami had managed a first down worth talking about. Malik Washington got the Dolphins on the board early in the second, and to their credit they trimmed it to 17-10 by half-time. That's as close as it got.

The third quarter is where the contrast turned into a rout. Stevenson scored twice more, at 7:34 and 2:25, and New England closed the quarter up 31-10. Henderson's second of the day early in the fourth put it beyond argument at 37-10. Miami never scored again after that first Washington try, and given they'd already used up their one moment of ambition, there wasn't a second act.

The efficiency numbers back up the eye test. New England's offensive EPA sat at 15.6 against Miami's minus-18.6, a gap of roughly 34 points in expected value terms. Drake Maye needed only 18 throws to go 14-of-18 for 191 yards and a touchdown, tidy and unhurried. Quinn Ewers threw more, 23 attempts for 137 yards, one touchdown and a pick, and looked like a man trying to manufacture something out of not much. Hunter Henry was the top target on the day with five catches for 56 yards, a supporting act to the ground game rather than the headline.

Miami's turnover count, two to New England's zero, tells the rest of the story. You can't play catch-up football and also hand the other side extra possessions, not against a Patriots pass rush that got home four times. New England's positional edges going in, quarterback 64 to 45, receiving corps 64 to 46, backfield 60 to 52, all showed up exactly where you'd expect them to.

Form lines suggested this gap was coming. New England arrived averaging 32 points a game across their last five with a margin of plus-11.2, Miami sat at minus-1.2 over the same stretch. Alphr's model had New England as 97 percent favourites, expecting a 16.7-point win and a combined total of 49. The margin ran hot at 28, but the total landed at 48, near enough spot on.

Ball control beat ambition here, comfortably, and the scoreboard never really argued otherwise.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 14 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **457** | Total Yards | 200 |
| **214** | Passing Yards | 137 |
| **243** | Rushing Yards | 63 |
| **28** | First Downs | 19 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **15.6** | Offensive EPA | -18.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 97% probability. The predicted margin of 16.7 was reasonable against the actual 28-point result. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 48, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Clay Martin's career average of 46. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 67% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.10 (edge +6.5%) — model probability 97.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots -14 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 17 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New England Patriots here: 97% to see off Miami Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 132 ELO points clear, 1579 to 1447. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Miami Dolphins.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has New England Patriots by 16.7, with the two sides combining for about 49. New England Patriots to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Miami Dolphins have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 38-10 in 2025 Week 18.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Quinn Ewers for Miami Dolphins, with Mike Vrabel and Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New England Patriots $1.10 and Miami Dolphins $7.50, with the spread at New England Patriots -14 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New England Patriots 4 · Miami Dolphins 8 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 38-10 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 2-6 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Quinn Ewers |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Mike McDaniel |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.10 · Miami Dolphins $7.50 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -14 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 4W–2L | 67% |
| Miami Dolphins | 3W–7L | 30% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, New England Patriots have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Miami Dolphins's 3 from 10 (30%). Small sample (6 games for New England Patriots).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 22.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 11.2pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W12 W · W13 W · W15 L · W16 W · W17 W | 32.0 |
| Miami Dolphins | W13 W · W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 W | 22.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Miami Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | New England Patriots | 38 – 10 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2025 | W2 | Miami Dolphins | 27 – 33 | New England Patriots |
| 2024 | W12 | Miami Dolphins | 34 – 15 | New England Patriots |
| 2024 | W5 | New England Patriots | 10 – 15 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2023 | W8 | Miami Dolphins | 31 – 17 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·3·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/8g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 48' |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/12g | 14/40g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 35% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/15g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/9g | 14/31g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 38' 43' |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/14g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/11g | 9/14g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Westover | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Dobbs | QB | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | 🎯 First TD $29.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Theo Wease Jr. | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.25 AI 19% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $41.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Alec Ingold | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Quinn Ewers | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Washington | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zach Wilson | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Theo Wease Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 2 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 19% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Washington

**New England Patriots** (5 picks)
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 49% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q1, Q3, Q3**
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1579 · Miami Dolphins 1447 · ELO difference: 132 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 64 | 45 | New England Patriots +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 46 | New England Patriots +18 |
| Backfield | 60 | 52 | New England Patriots +8 |
| Pass Rush | 46 | 53 | Miami Dolphins +7 |
| Secondary | 57 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 65 | 64 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 97%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 17 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)