# Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Minnesota Vikings 16 – 3 Green Bay Packers

_Minnesota Vikings plunder Green Bay Packers._

Half time: 13 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Minnesota Vikings 93% / Green Bay Packers 7% · U.S. Bank Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Minnesota Vikings: C.J. Ham (30') · Green Bay Packers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 93% | Won |
| Green Bay Packers | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 21.0 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 05:00 am_

Minnesota Vikings 16–3 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 18 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at U.S. Bank Stadium read Minnesota Vikings 13, Green Bay Packers 0, and the second half didn't so much rewrite that as leave it alone. Green Bay found three points somewhere in the back half, Minnesota added another field goal of their own, and the final sat at 16-3. Whatever case Green Bay had for a comeback, it never really started.

The story was written well before the break. Minnesota led 3-0 after the first quarter, then C.J. Ham's touchdown with 25 seconds left in the second put them up 12-0, and the extra point made it 13. From there the game went quiet: no more points in the third, and Green Bay's only score of the night came in the fourth, long after the outcome was settled.

The stat sheet backs up how one-sided it was. Minnesota outgained Green Bay 376 yards to 162, more than double, and did it while conceding the turnover battle 1-0. That's usually the kind of number that costs a team a win. Here it barely registered, because the gap everywhere else was too wide to matter.

Through the air, Green Bay simply couldn't move. Clayton Tune finished 6-of-11 for just 34 yards, and the team's 34 passing yards overall tell the same story as the box score, not much was happening downfield. J.J. McCarthy, by comparison, went 14-of-23 for 182 for Minnesota, with Justin Jefferson doing the heavy lifting: 8 catches, 101 yards, the game's leading receiver by a distance. Jordan Mason added 94 yards on 14 carries on the ground, and Minnesota's 137 rushing yards to Green Bay's 128 was one of the few areas the Packers kept within touching distance.

Everywhere else, it wasn't close. Minnesota picked up 36 first downs to Green Bay's 12, got home on the quarterback four times to Green Bay's two, and finished +13.4 in expected points added against a Packers offence that finished at negative 16.1. That's not a rough patch, that's a unit that never got moving.

It's a result that runs against the positional card, too. Green Bay came in rated stronger at quarterback, backfield and secondary, and their pass rush was still competitive at 44 to Minnesota's 60. None of it showed up. Minnesota's form had them at four wins from five, Green Bay two from five with three straight losses, and on this evidence the form line was the more honest guide than the individual position ratings.

Alphr's model had Minnesota at 93 percent to win, with a predicted margin of 21 on a combined total of 49. The lopsided nature of the win backs the confidence, even if the final scoreboard, 19 points in total, came in 30 below the projected number. Read: right team, low-scoring night. Minnesota didn't need the fireworks. Green Bay never found any at all.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| **376** | Total Yards | 162 |
| **239** | Passing Yards | 34 |
| **137** | Rushing Yards | 128 |
| **36** | First Downs | 12 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-2.7** | Offensive EPA | -16.1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Minnesota Vikings to win at 93% probability. The predicted margin of 21.0 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. The game's 19 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 49. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 19 points was 27 points below John Hussey's career average of 46. Minnesota Vikings's victory aligns with John Hussey's historical trend, Minnesota Vikings have a 50% win rate under this referee. Minnesota Vikings's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.15 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 93.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 21 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Minnesota Vikings here: 93% to see off Green Bay Packers. The ratings say otherwise: Green Bay Packers sit 28 ELO points clear, 1581 to 1553, so the model is backing Minnesota Vikings against the ratings gap. Form leans Minnesota Vikings' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Green Bay Packers.

On paper Green Bay Packers shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The model still sides with Minnesota Vikings, which says Pass Rush and Recent Form carry the most weight. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 21.0, with the two sides combining for about 49. Minnesota Vikings to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Minnesota Vikings have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Minnesota Vikings took the most recent meeting 16-3 in 2025 Week 18.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

J.J. McCarthy starts under centre for Minnesota Vikings, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Kevin O'Connell and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Minnesota Vikings favourites, Minnesota Vikings $1.15 and Green Bay Packers $5.70, with the spread at Minnesota Vikings -12.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Minnesota Vikings 7 · Green Bay Packers 5 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 16-3 (2025) |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-4 home |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | J.J. McCarthy · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Kevin O'Connell · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Minnesota Vikings $1.15 · Green Bay Packers $5.70 |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -12.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 5W–5L | 50% |
| Green Bay Packers | 3W–6L | 33% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, Minnesota Vikings have won 5 of 10 games (50%), significantly stronger than Green Bay Packers's 3 from 9 (33%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 25.0pts |
| 15.0pts | Avg Conceded | 28.4pts |
| 5.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | W13 L · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W | 20.8 |
| Green Bay Packers | W13 W · W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L | 25.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Minnesota Vikings | 16 – 3 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W12 | Green Bay Packers | 23 – 6 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W17 | Minnesota Vikings | 27 – 25 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2024 | W4 | Green Bay Packers | 29 – 31 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2023 | W17 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 – 33 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at U.S. Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/8g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.73 AI 22% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 17% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/19g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 16% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 11/19g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 24% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/16g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 27/46g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | C.J. Ham | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/52g | 10% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Zavier Scott | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ben Sims | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Ben Yurosek | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jeshaun Jones | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Max Brosmer | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ty Chandler | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/17g | 7% | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Tune | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Drake Dabney | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jakobie Keeney-James | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Emanuel Wilson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 14 TDs across the team's last 5

**Minnesota Vikings** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Addison 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Mason 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- ⚡ J.J. McCarthy — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 17% · no TD
- ⚡ Jalen Nailor — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 16% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Ham

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Green Bay Packers hold the ELO advantage (1581 vs 1553), but the market favours Minnesota Vikings (@1.15). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Minnesota Vikings 1553 · Green Bay Packers 1581 · ELO difference: 28 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 35 | 42 | Green Bay Packers +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 44 | Minnesota Vikings +16 |
| Secondary | 46 | 54 | Green Bay Packers +8 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 67 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 93%** — Minnesota Vikings predicted to win by 21 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)