# Los Angeles Rams v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 37 – 20 Arizona Cardinals

_Los Angeles Rams bulldoze Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 16 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 97% / Arizona Cardinals 3% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua (29' Tipped ⚡), Colby Parkinson (45' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Higbee (50'), Colby Parkinson (56' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson (35' Tipped ⚡), Josiah Deguara (42')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 97% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.1 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 08:25 am_

Los Angeles Rams 37–20 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 18 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Arizona Cardinals had it, briefly. Michael Wilson's touchdown with 10:44 left in the third cut it to four, Josiah Deguara's score with 3:57 to go put Arizona in front 19-16, and for about three minutes SoFi Stadium had a genuine contest on its hands. Then Colby Parkinson caught his first of the night with 50 seconds left in the quarter, the Rams retook the lead at 22-20, and the Cardinals never saw it again.

Final score: Los Angeles Rams 37, Arizona Cardinals 20. A 17-point margin that flattered the competitiveness of the middle two quarters, because the fourth was a rout. Tyler Higbee scored at the 10:44 mark to make it 29-20, Parkinson added his second at 4:19 to make it 36-20, and by the time the clock ran out the contest had been decided for a while.

Los Angeles led 16-6 at the break, built on the kind of positional gap the model flagged going in. The Rams backfield was rated 75 to Arizona's 48, and it showed up all night: 143 rushing yards to 79, with Kyren Williams the best runner on the field at 60 yards on just 12 carries. Arizona simply couldn't match that on the ground, and it left Jacoby Brissett needing to do more than he could.

Brissett wasn't bad, 22 of 31 for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns, with Michael Wilson the game's leading receiver on 5 catches for 99 yards and a score. But he threw a pick, and Arizona's offence finished at 1.9 expected points added against the Rams' 16.1. That 14-point EPA gap tells you who was playing with the ball more efficiently, snap for snap, and it lines up with the sack count: Los Angeles got home 6 times, Arizona once. Matthew Stafford had time to work and made the Cardinals pay, 25 of 40 for 259 yards and 4 touchdowns spread across four different targets.

Zero turnovers for the Rams against two for the Cardinals is about as clean a split as you'll see in a 17-point game. Arizona's pass rush, rated 46 to the Rams' 52 pre-match, never generated the pressure needed to force those extra mistakes, and the Rams' 46-rated secondary got away with it because Arizona couldn't sustain enough drives to expose it. Forty-one first downs to 30, 402 total yards to 350: comfortable, not overwhelming, but comfortable enough.

Arizona arrived on a five-game losing run averaging 17.4 points and conceding 33.6, and for a half they looked like they might buck that trend. The third-quarter surge was real. It just wasn't enough against a Rams side averaging 35 a game across their last five, with the backfield and special teams edges (75-48, 68-51) to fall back on when it mattered.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles at 97% to win, with a margin of 19.1 against an actual 17, and a total of 60 against the actual 57. Both numbers landed close enough to call it a sharp read. The scoreline moved around more than the model's margin suggested it might, but the gap between these two sides showed up exact

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| **402** | Total Yards | 350 |
| 259 | Passing Yards | **271** |
| **143** | Rushing Yards | 79 |
| **41** | First Downs | 30 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **16.1** | Offensive EPA | 1.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 97% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Rams by 19.1 vs the actual margin of 17 points. Total score prediction of 60 was close to the actual 57, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 12 points above Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Los Angeles Rams's victory aligns with Carl Cheffers's historical trend, Los Angeles Rams have a 71% win rate under this referee. Los Angeles Rams's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.07 (edge +4.3%) — model probability 97.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 19 · Predicted total: 60

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 97% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 312 ELO points clear, 1653 to 1341. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Arizona Cardinals.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 19.1, with the two sides combining for about 60. Los Angeles Rams to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Rams have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 37-20 in 2025 Week 18.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-1 at home, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Jacoby Brissett for Arizona Cardinals, with Sean McVay and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.07 and Arizona Cardinals $9.00, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -14.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 9 · Arizona Cardinals 3 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 37-20 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Jacoby Brissett |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.07 · Arizona Cardinals $9.00 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -14.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 5W–2L | 71% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9W–11L | 45% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Arizona Cardinals's 9 from 20 (45%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Los Angeles Rams).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 35.0pts | Avg Score | 17.4pts |
| 29.4pts | Avg Conceded | 33.6pts |
| 5.6pts | Avg Margin | -16.2pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | W13 L · W14 W · W15 W · W16 L · W17 L | 35.0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L | 17.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Los Angeles Rams | 37 – 20 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2025 | W14 | Arizona Cardinals | 17 – 45 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | W17 | Los Angeles Rams | 13 – 9 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2024 | W2 | Arizona Cardinals | 41 – 10 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2023 | W12 | Arizona Cardinals | 14 – 37 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 6/6g | 24/26g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.49 AI 57% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.40 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1) | 2/4g | 9/20g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.84 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.40 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 29' |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/15g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/18g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 56' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/16g | 8/40g | 22% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/27g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/39g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 11 in 16g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Brooks | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josiah Deguara | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Pharaoh Brown | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Steven Sims | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Wilson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Deguara

**Los Angeles Rams** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 63% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 57% · no TD
- ⚡ Blake Corum — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Colby Parkinson — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- Rest of the Rams: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Higbee

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1653 · Arizona Cardinals 1341 · ELO difference: 312 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 51 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 60 | Even |
| Backfield | 75 | 48 | Los Angeles Rams +27 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 46 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |
| Secondary | 46 | 58 | Arizona Cardinals +12 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 51 | Los Angeles Rams +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 97%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 19 points · Predicted total: 60 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)