# Las Vegas Raiders v Kansas City Chiefs — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 14 – 12 Kansas City Chiefs

_Las Vegas Raiders survive a scare against Kansas City Chiefs._

Half time: 6 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 20% / Kansas City Chiefs 80% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 08:25 am AEDT

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 80% | Lost |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 08:25 am_

Las Vegas Raiders 14–12 Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 18 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six-three at the break, and that was about as much daylight as either side ever found. Las Vegas Raiders held a three-point edge at half-time and never let the margin swell past a single score for the rest of the afternoon, closing it out 14-12 over Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. Neither team found the end zone all day. This was a field position and forced-error contest from the first whistle to the last, and it stayed that way right through four quarters.

Kansas City actually did more with the ball, out-gaining the Raiders 230 yards to 223 and edging first downs 16 to 15. On paper that reads like the away side's game. It wasn't, because the Chiefs turned it over twice to the Raiders' once, and every extra possession Las Vegas got out of that difference mattered in a match decided by single scores rather than big plays.

The bigger number is the pass rush. Las Vegas got home eight times, Kansas City managed three. Going in, the two units were rated close, 51 to 53 in the Chiefs' favour, nothing that suggested a gap that wide. Instead the Raiders' front turned Shane Buechele's afternoon into a scramble, holding him to 7-of-14 for 88 yards through the air, while Aidan O'Connell went 10-of-22 for 102 at the other end. Neither quarterback had much room, but one side's pocket collapsed far more often than the other's.

On the ground it flipped again. Kansas City came in rated well ahead in the backfield, 46 to 36, but it was Las Vegas who piled up 118 rushing yards to the Chiefs' 84. Ashton Jeanty carried the load, 87 yards on 26 attempts, and that grind kept the Raiders in control of the clock and out of long-yardage trouble for most of the day.

Marquise Brown was the one bright spot for the Chiefs through the air, three catches for 64 yards, the game's top individual receiving return. But a single strong receiving line doesn't fix a stalled ground game or paper over two turnovers when the final margin is two points.

Both defences deserve the credit line here too. Neither offence could find the end zone, and with the combined total finishing at 26 points, well under the 44 the model expected, this was always going to be decided by field position and mistakes rather than explosive plays.

Kansas City's form line coming in was already grim: five straight losses, an average margin of minus eight, and only 10 days' rest against the Raiders' seven. Las Vegas arrived on the same losing run, five straight, with an even worse average margin of minus 16.2. Sunday's result snaps neither streak in the loss column, but it does hand Las Vegas its first win of the stretch on the scoreboard.

The pre-match ratings had Kansas City well clear, 1512 to the Raiders' 1254, and Alphr's model gave the Chiefs an 80 percent chance of the win with a projected eight-point margin. The margin part held up fine in shape, just not in direction. The final gap was two points, and it went the other way. Call it an upset if you like the word, but on the day it was built on turnovers won and a pass rush that simply had the better afternoon.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 223 | Total Yards | **230** |
| 105 | Passing Yards | **146** |
| **118** | Rushing Yards | 84 |
| 15 | First Downs | **16** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **8** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -29.9 | Offensive EPA | **-29** |

**Model Report Card**

Las Vegas Raiders defied the model's 80% prediction for Kansas City Chiefs, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 8.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 44. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 20 points below Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Las Vegas Raiders bucked the trend, Kansas City Chiefs historically win 64% of games under Craig Wrolstad, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.44 (edge +11.2%) — model probability 80.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 36.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 8 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Kansas City Chiefs here: 80% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Kansas City Chiefs sit 259 ELO points clear, 1512 to 1254.

Kansas City Chiefs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Kansas City Chiefs by 8.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Kansas City Chiefs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Kansas City Chiefs have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Las Vegas Raiders took the most recent meeting 14-12 in 2025 Week 18.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Chris Oladokun for Kansas City Chiefs, with Pete Carroll and Andy Reid calling the shots.

Kansas City Chiefs come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $2.85 and Kansas City Chiefs $1.44, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 and the total at 36.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Las Vegas Raiders 3 · Kansas City Chiefs 9 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 14-12 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 1-7 away |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Chris Oladokun |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Andy Reid |
| Rest | Las Vegas Raiders 7d · Kansas City Chiefs 10d |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $2.85 · Kansas City Chiefs $1.44 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 · total 36.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Kansas City Chiefs

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2W–4L | 33% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7W–4L | 64% |

Avg total: 45.7 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, Kansas City Chiefs have won 7 of 11 games (64%), significantly stronger than Las Vegas Raiders's 2 from 6 (33%). Small sample (6 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 14.6pts |
| 28.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.6pts |
| -16.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L | 12.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L | 14.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Kansas City Chiefs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 14 – 12 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2025 | W7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 31 – 0 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2024 | W13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 19 – 17 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2024 | W8 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2023 | W16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 6/8g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 5 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/24g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 19% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/19g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Shedrick Jackson | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $8.75 AI 17% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Aidan O'Connell | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Pickett | QB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Zamir White | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/19g | 7% | — | — |

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.83 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 11/19g | 2/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 24% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Chris Oladokun | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dameon Pierce | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Royals | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Wiley | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Shane Buechele | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Kelce 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Chiefs: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Las Vegas Raiders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Tre Tucker 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 19% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Lockett — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 17% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1254 · Kansas City Chiefs 1512 · ELO difference: 259 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 43 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Backfield | 36 | 46 | Kansas City Chiefs +10 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 45 | 51 | Kansas City Chiefs +6 |
| Special Teams | 46 | 54 | Kansas City Chiefs +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Kansas City Chiefs predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r18-las-vegas-raiders-v-kansas-city-chiefs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-01-04 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)