# Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 41 – 7 Tennessee Titans

_Jacksonville Jaguars put Tennessee Titans to the sword._

Half time: 31 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 99% / Tennessee Titans 1% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Parker Washington (9' Tipped ⚡), Brenton Strange (19'), Antonio Johnson (22'), Quintin Morris (28'), Bhayshul Tuten (53') · Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward (5')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 99% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 1% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.5 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 05:00 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 41–7 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 18 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee Titans 41-7 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Take a look at the half-time score before you file that under "comfortable": 31-7. Everything after the break was just the Jaguars running out the clock on a game they'd already finished.

Cam Ward got the Titans on the board first, a touchdown with 10:16 left in the first that had Tennessee up 6-0 before Jacksonville had settled. Parker Washington answered before the quarter was out and it was tied 7-7 heading into the second. Then the Jaguars scored three times in the space of ten minutes, Brenton Strange, An.Johnson and Quintin Morris, and by the 2:00 mark of the second quarter it was 27-7. Game over as a contest, whatever the clock said.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard did. Jacksonville outgained Tennessee 335 yards to 201 and doubled them up on first downs, 38 to 15. Offensive EPA had Jacksonville at plus 12, Tennessee at minus 18.5, a 30.5-point gap in pure efficiency. Add the turnover column, Tennessee coughed one up and Jacksonville didn't, and there's no mystery left in a 34-point margin.

Trevor Lawrence went 22 of 30 for 255 yards and three touchdowns, the kind of clean, unhurried performance you'd expect given the Jaguars carried a 74-38 quarterback rating edge into the match. Brandon Allen managed 17 of 30 for 72 yards with an interception, numbers that tell their own story next to Lawrence's. Parker Washington was the standout target, five catches for 87 yards and a touchdown, and Bhayshul Tuten put a bow on it late in the fourth.

Tennessee's one bright spot was on the ground, Tony Pollard grinding out 48 yards on 14 carries and the Titans actually out-rushing Jacksonville 77 to 64. Not that it mattered. Rushing yardage doesn't win you the game when you're down 38 first downs

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 41 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **335** | Total Yards | 201 |
| **271** | Passing Yards | 124 |
| 64 | Rushing Yards | **77** |
| **38** | First Downs | 15 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **12** | Offensive EPA | -18.5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 99% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 19.5 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Scott Novak's career average of 45. Jacksonville Jaguars bucked the trend, Tennessee Titans historically win 50% of games under Scott Novak, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.13 (edge +11.0%) — model probability 99.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Jacksonville Jaguars here: 99% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Jacksonville Jaguars sit 319 ELO points clear, 1601 to 1282. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Tennessee Titans.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 19.5, with the two sides combining for about 50. Jacksonville Jaguars to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 41-7 in 2025 Week 18.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with Liam Coen and Brian Callahan calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $1.13 and Tennessee Titans $6.25, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -12.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Jacksonville Jaguars 7 · Tennessee Titans 5 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 41-7 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-6 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Brian Callahan |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $1.13 · Tennessee Titans $6.25 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -12.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Tennessee Titans | 3W–3L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.3 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Tennessee Titans have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 2 from 7 (29%). Small sample (6 games for Tennessee Titans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 33.2pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 15.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Margin | -4.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W | 33.2 |
| Tennessee Titans | W13 L · W14 W · W15 L · W16 W · W17 L | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 41 – 7 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2025 | W13 | Tennessee Titans | 3 – 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2024 | W17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 – 13 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2024 | W14 | Tennessee Titans | 6 – 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2023 | W18 | Tennessee Titans | 28 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 13 in 16g | 10/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·2·3·1·0) | 0/7g | 17/30g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.58 AI 54% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 4/7g | 10/35g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/8g | 42% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 4/15g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 9/14g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 2/16g | 17% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | DeeJay Dallas | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nick Mullens | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 7% | — | 🏉 28' |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 6 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 18% | 🎯 First TD $29.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Allen | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Proche | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Kinsey | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Ward

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 4 pass) · model 54% · no TD
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Parker Washington — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Trevor Lawrence — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Strange, An.Johnson, Q.Morris, B.Tuten

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1601 · Tennessee Titans 1282 · ELO difference: 319 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 74 | 38 | Jacksonville Jaguars +36 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 52 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 |
| Backfield | 54 | 60 | Tennessee Titans +6 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 60 | Tennessee Titans +5 |
| Secondary | 59 | 51 | Jacksonville Jaguars +8 |
| Special Teams | 75 | 62 | Jacksonville Jaguars +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 99%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 20 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)