# Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 19 – 3 Los Angeles Chargers

_Denver Broncos buck off Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 10 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 96% / Los Angeles Chargers 4% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 05 Jan, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Ja'Quan McMillian (12') · Los Angeles Chargers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 96% | Won |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.5 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 08:25 am_

Denver Broncos 19–3 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 18 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Chargers did plenty right on Sunday and still walked out with three points. They actually finished ahead on first downs, 20 to 19, and their 249 total yards weren't far off Denver's 257. Rushing was almost dead even too, 113 yards to 116. On paper this had the makings of a coin flip. On the scoreboard it wasn't close at all.

The gap showed up in the two categories that actually decide these things: turnovers and efficiency. Los Angeles coughed the ball up twice, Denver didn't give it away once. The offensive EPA numbers told the same story from a different angle: minus-28.2 for the Chargers against minus-10.3 for the Broncos, a gap of 17.8 expected points. Both offences struggled to string drives together cleanly, but one struggled a lot more, and it cost them every time a drive actually mattered.

Trey Lance did what he could with the ball in his hands. He led all rushers on the day with 69 yards on nine carries, breaking off chunks that Denver's defence couldn't fully account for. Through the air it was a grind: 44 attempts for 20 completions and 136 yards, with one of those throws ending up in Denver's hands. Volume without reward.

Bo Nix needed less than half that workload to get more out of it. He went 14-of-23 for 141 yards, matching Lance's output almost yard for yard while throwing the ball 21 fewer times. Same rough yardage, far less waste, and no turnovers to hand the game back.

Denver got the only touchdown of the afternoon and made it count early. J.McMillian's score with 3:50 left in the first quarter put the Broncos up 9-0, and they closed the opening term 10-0. Los Angeles clawed back a field goal before halftime to make it 10-3 at the main break, and the margin held there through the third quarter, 13-3, before Denver added enough in the fourth to finish it off 19-3. The Chargers never found the end zone all day, and neither side managed more than the one touchdown between them.

Both defences got after the quarterback in equal measure, four sacks apiece, so it wasn't pressure that separated the teams. It was what happened with the ball in hand once each side had it: Denver held onto it, Los Angeles didn't, twice.

Going

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 10 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| **257** | Total Yards | 249 |
| **141** | Passing Yards | 136 |
| **116** | Rushing Yards | 113 |
| 19 | First Downs | **20** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4 | Sacks Made | 4 |
| **-10.3** | Offensive EPA | -28.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 96% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 12.5 vs the actual margin of 16 points. The game's 22 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 22 points was 24 points below Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Denver Broncos bucked the trend, Los Angeles Chargers historically win 62% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.06 (edge +1.4%) — model probability 95.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 13 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 96% to see off Los Angeles Chargers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 74 ELO points clear, 1648 to 1574.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 12.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Denver Broncos taking the most recent 19-3 in 2025 Week 18.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.06 and Los Angeles Chargers $10.00, with the spread at Denver Broncos -14.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 6 · Los Angeles Chargers 6 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 19-3 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Jim Harbaugh |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.06 · Los Angeles Chargers $10.00 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -14.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 7W–6L | 54% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8W–5L | 62% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Los Angeles Chargers hold a 8-point edge: 8W–5L (62%) vs Denver Broncos's 7W–6L (54%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.0pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.6pts |
| 1.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.2pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 L · W17 W | 25.0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Denver Broncos | 19 – 3 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2025 | W3 | Los Angeles Chargers | 23 – 20 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W16 | Los Angeles Chargers | 34 – 27 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W6 | Denver Broncos | 16 – 23 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2023 | W17 | Denver Broncos | 16 – 9 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 12 in 16g | 11/10g (1·3·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 7/8g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.73 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/12g | 18/47g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/16g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/16g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/23g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/20g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 9% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 19% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 4/4g | 26% | 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jaret Patterson | RB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Trey Lance | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Conklin | TE | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Will Dissly | TE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 11 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (5 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Troy Franklin — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- ⚡ Bo Nix — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- ⚡ Pat Bryant — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 19% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.McMillian

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1648 · Los Angeles Chargers 1574 · ELO difference: 74 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 70 | 42 | Denver Broncos +28 |
| Receiving Corps | 55 | 48 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Backfield | 57 | 48 | Denver Broncos +9 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 45 | Denver Broncos +9 |
| Secondary | 58 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 60 | 73 | Los Angeles Chargers +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 96%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)