# Cincinnati Bengals v Cleveland Browns — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals 18 – 20 Cleveland Browns

_Cleveland Browns hold off a fast-finishing Cincinnati Bengals._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 89% / Cleveland Browns 11% · Paycor Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown (7' Tipped ⚡), Tee Higgins (30' Tipped ⚡), Ja'Marr Chase (59' Tipped ⚡) · Cleveland Browns: Devin Bush (14'), Sam Webb (16')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 89% | Lost |
| Cleveland Browns | 11% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.6 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 05:00 am_

Cincinnati Bengals 18–20 Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 18 at Paycor Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cleveland Browns led by three when the clock hit triple zeros, and that was the whole ball game. Cincinnati Bengals had just gone back in front with 1:34 to play, Ja'Marr Chase getting in to make it 18-17, and it lasted less than ninety seconds. Cleveland answered straight back to close it out 20-18. One score, right to the final whistle, and the wrong team came out on top of it.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd swear Cincinnati won going away. 378 total yards to 229. Forty first downs to fourteen. Six sacks to two. Offensive EPA of plus 1.5 against minus 6.5 for Cleveland, which is about as lopsided as that number gets in a one-score finish. None of it mattered enough.

Joe Burrow threw for 236 and three touchdowns on 29-of-39, finding Chase Brown, Chase and Higgins across the four quarters. Chase was the volume man, eight catches for 96 yards and a score, and Chase Brown chipped in 72 rushing yards on just 13 carries to go with his own touchdown early in the first. On paper that's a complete offensive performance. Shedeur Sanders, by contrast, managed 111 yards on 11-of-22 for Cleveland, nowhere near the production Cincinnati put up through the air.

But footy doesn't get marked on style points, and the turn

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| **378** | Total Yards | 229 |
| **236** | Passing Yards | 111 |
| **142** | Rushing Yards | 118 |
| **40** | First Downs | 14 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **1.5** | Offensive EPA | -6.5 |

**Model Report Card**

Cleveland Browns defied the model's 89% prediction for Cincinnati Bengals, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.6 but the actual margin was 2 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 8 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Cleveland Browns bucked the trend, Cincinnati Bengals historically win 71% of games under Alex Kemp, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Cleveland Browns prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.22 (edge +6.6%) — model probability 88.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 11 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cincinnati Bengals here: 89% to see off Cleveland Browns. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cincinnati Bengals sit 121 ELO points clear, 1481 to 1360. Form leans Cincinnati Bengals' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cleveland Browns.

Cincinnati Bengals own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Cincinnati Bengals by 10.6, with the two sides combining for about 48. Cincinnati Bengals to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Cleveland Browns have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Cleveland Browns took the most recent meeting 20-18 in 2025 Week 18.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Joe Burrow starts under centre for Cincinnati Bengals, Shedeur Sanders for Cleveland Browns, with Zac Taylor and Kevin Stefanski calling the shots.

The market has Cincinnati Bengals favourites, Cincinnati Bengals $1.22 and Cleveland Browns $4.50, with the spread at Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cincinnati Bengals 5 · Cleveland Browns 7 |
| Last meeting | Cleveland Browns 20-18 (2025) |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 home |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 away |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Burrow · Shedeur Sanders |
| Head coaches | Zac Taylor · Kevin Stefanski |
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals $1.22 · Cleveland Browns $4.50 |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cincinnati Bengals

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5W–2L | 71% |
| Cleveland Browns | 2W–3L | 40% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, Cincinnati Bengals have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 2 from 5 (40%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Cleveland Browns).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 29.6pts | Avg Score | 14.6pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | W13 W · W14 L · W15 L · W16 W · W17 W | 29.6 |
| Cleveland Browns | W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 W | 14.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cincinnati Bengals lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Cincinnati Bengals | 18 – 20 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2025 | W1 | Cleveland Browns | 16 – 17 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 24 – 6 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W7 | Cleveland Browns | 14 – 21 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2023 | W18 | Cincinnati Bengals | 31 – 14 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Paycor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 10 in 16g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·3·2) | 1/4g | 9/23g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.67 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·0·2·1·0) | 4/8g | 19/25g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/8g | 20/31g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 3/15g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 8/22g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 2/14g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.20 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Joe Burrow | QB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 5/24g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 20% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Raheim Sanders | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Shedeur Sanders | QB | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brenden Bates | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sal Cannella | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trayveon Williams | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cleveland Browns** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Jerry Jeudy 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Bush, S.Webb

**Cincinnati Bengals** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 3 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Tee Higgins 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Samaje Perine — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Mike Gesicki — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cincinnati Bengals 1481 · Cleveland Browns 1360 · ELO difference: 121 in favour of Cincinnati Bengals

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 33 | Cincinnati Bengals +26 |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 30 | Cincinnati Bengals +29 |
| Backfield | 68 | 47 | Cincinnati Bengals +21 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 62 | 47 | Cincinnati Bengals +15 |
| Special Teams | 70 | 52 | Cincinnati Bengals +18 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Cincinnati Bengals predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)