# Chicago Bears v Detroit Lions — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 16 – 19 Detroit Lions

_Detroit Lions roar past a gallant Chicago Bears._

Half time: 0 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 50% / Detroit Lions 50% · Soldier Field · Mon, 05 Jan, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: Jahdae Walker (46'), Colston Loveland (55') · Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs (26' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 50% | Lost |
| Detroit Lions | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 08:25 am_

Chicago Bears 16–19 Detroit Lions in NFL Week 18 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Detroit came to Soldier Field happy to keep the ball on the ground and let the chains move, Chicago tried to win with chunks through the air. The way the stat sheet reads, patience beat ambition. Lions 19, Bears 16, and it stayed a one-score game the whole way through the fourth quarter.

The gap in the numbers is stark for a three-point final. Detroit ran up 453 total yards to Chicago's 277, doubled them up on the ground 122 to 65, and piled up 41 first downs against 24. Offensive EPA had Detroit at plus 10.4, Chicago at minus 1, an 11.4-point efficiency edge snap for snap. That's usually a rout. It wasn't, because Chicago's pass rush kept getting home, three sacks to one, and because the Bears found their touchdowns when it counted.

The scoreboard tells the story of a team that had to come from miles back. Detroit led 3-0 after the first quarter, then Jahmyr Gibbs' touchdown with 4:46 left in the second made it 12-0, and it was 13-0 at the half. Chicago didn't get on the board at all until 14:20 remained in the fourth, when Jahdae Walker scored to make it 16-6. Colston Loveland followed with 5:28 left to cut it to 16-14. Two scores in the space of nine minutes after 45 minutes of nothing, and Detroit still had just enough in the bank to hold on at 19-16.

Through the air, Jared Goff went 27 of 42 for 331 yards and a touchdown against one interception, and Amon-Ra St Brown did the heavy lifting on the receiving end with 11 catches for 139 yards. Caleb Williams was tidier on volume, 20 of 33 for 212 yards, two touchdowns and a pick, and made every one of his completions count given how little rushing support he had. Gibbs led all runners with 80 yards on 19 carries, which matters because Chicago's backfield rating going in, 65 to Detroit's 50, was supposed to be the mismatch in their favour. On the day it was Detroit's ball carrier who did the damage.

Chicago's pass rush rating, 60 to Detroit's 52, showed up exactly as billed, three sacks worth of pressure on Goff. It just wasn't enough to offset a Lions offensive line that kept finding room on the ground and a Detroit defence that held Chicago score

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 |
| Detroit Lions | 3 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 277 | Total Yards | **453** |
| 212 | Passing Yards | **331** |
| 65 | Rushing Yards | **122** |
| 24 | First Downs | **41** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -1 | Offensive EPA | **10.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Detroit Lions defied the model's 50% prediction for Chicago Bears, a notable result. The predicted margin of 8.3 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 35 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 59. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 11 points below Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Detroit Lions's victory aligns with Brad Rogers's historical trend, Detroit Lions have a 71% win rate under this referee. Despite Brad Rogers's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Detroit Lions prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.56 (edge -14.0%) — model probability 50.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 8 · Predicted total: 59

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. The model can't split them, landing on Chicago Bears at 50%. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Detroit Lions.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 8.3, with the two sides combining for about 59. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Detroit Lions have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Detroit Lions took the most recent meeting 19-16 in 2025 Week 18.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Jared Goff for Detroit Lions, with Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell calling the shots.

Detroit Lions come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Chicago Bears favourites, Chicago Bears $1.56 and Detroit Lions $2.50, with the spread at Chicago Bears -3.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 4 · Detroit Lions 8 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 19-16 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-5 away |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Jared Goff |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Dan Campbell |
| Rest | Chicago Bears 7d · Detroit Lions 10d |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.56 · Detroit Lions $2.50 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Detroit Lions

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 2W–4L | 33% |
| Detroit Lions | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Detroit Lions have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Chicago Bears's 2 from 6 (33%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Chicago Bears).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 30.8pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W13 W · W14 L · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L | 27.2 |
| Detroit Lions | W13 L · W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Detroit Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Chicago Bears | 16 – 19 | Detroit Lions |
| 2025 | W2 | Detroit Lions | 52 – 21 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 17 – 34 | Detroit Lions |
| 2024 | W13 | Detroit Lions | 23 – 20 | Chicago Bears |
| 2023 | W14 | Chicago Bears | 28 – 13 | Detroit Lions |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 1/3g | 7/17g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.98 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·1·0) | 6/8g | 14/23g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 32% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 10/47g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nikola Kalinic | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Travis Homer | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 17 in 16g | 12/10g (2·0·3·0·3·0·3·0·1·0) | 4/5g | 2/2g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.63 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 17% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 26' |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 11 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/9g | 1/4g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 15/31g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 2/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Firkser | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Kennedy | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Detroit Lions** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 59% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Jameson Williams 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Walker, C.Loveland

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Detroit Lions hold the ELO advantage (1569 vs 1549), but the market favours Chicago Bears (@1.56). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1549 · Detroit Lions 1569 · ELO difference: 19 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 64 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 62 | 59 | Even |
| Backfield | 65 | 50 | Chicago Bears +15 |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 52 | Chicago Bears +8 |
| Secondary | 57 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 57 | 58 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Detroit Lions |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 59 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)