# Buffalo Bills v New York Jets — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Buffalo Bills 35 – 8 New York Jets

_Buffalo Bills stampede past New York Jets._

Half time: 21 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Buffalo Bills 92% / New York Jets 8% · New Era Field · Mon, 05 Jan, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox (7' Tipped ⚡), Ty Johnson (19' Tipped ⚡), Ray Davis (25'), Gabe Davis (38'), Ty Johnson (48' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Andrew Beck (53')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 92% | Won |
| New York Jets | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.7 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 08:25 am_

Buffalo Bills 35–8 New York Jets in NFL Week 18 at New Era Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Buffalo Bills had this one decided before the second half even started, and the moment it turned was obvious: an eleven-minute stretch in the second quarter when New York Jets simply stopped existing as a contest. Dawson Knox had already opened the scoring with 8:22 left in the first, but it was Ty Johnson's touchdown with 11:48 left in the second, followed by Ray Davis crossing again at the 5:04 mark, that put it out of reach. By half-time it was 21-0, and New York Jets hadn't managed a single point.

Everything after the break was just addition. Gabe Davis got in with 7:52 left in the third to make it 27-0, and by the end of that quarter Buffalo Bills led 29-0. Ty Johnson added his second early in the fourth, at the 12:09 mark, to push it to 35-0 before New York Jets finally got on the board through Andrew Beck with 7:37 remaining. That score, which made it 35-6 before the final conversion took it to 35-8, came well after the game had been settled.

The final scoreline, 35-8, reads as a 27-point statement, and the numbers back it up entirely. Buffalo Bills outgained New York Jets 470 yards to 129, and led 45 first downs to 13, a gap that tells you the Jets barely had the ball long enough to do anything with it. Rushing did a lot of the damage: 211 yards on the ground for Buffalo Bills, roughly 45 percent of their total output, led by Ray Davis with 151 yards on 21 carries. That's one back doing more than New York Jets' entire offence managed all afternoon.

Through the air it was just as one-sided. Mitchell Trubisky went 22-of-29 for 259 yards and 4 touchd

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| New York Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| **470** | Total Yards | 129 |
| **259** | Passing Yards | 60 |
| **211** | Rushing Yards | 69 |
| **45** | First Downs | 13 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **1** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **21.3** | Offensive EPA | -12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Buffalo Bills to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.7 but the actual margin was 27 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 43, within 1 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 39.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The 43-point combined total was right in line with Alan Eck's career average of 45. Buffalo Bills's victory aligns with Alan Eck's historical trend, Buffalo Bills have a 60% win rate under this referee. Buffalo Bills's home victory fits Alan Eck's profile, home teams win 67% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.13 (edge +3.6%) — model probability 92.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 12 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Buffalo Bills here: 92% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Buffalo Bills sit 361 ELO points clear, 1653 to 1292. Form leans Buffalo Bills' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Jets.

Buffalo Bills own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Buffalo Bills by 11.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. Buffalo Bills to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Buffalo Bills have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Buffalo Bills took the most recent meeting 35-8 in 2025 Week 18.

Buffalo Bills went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 21.5 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Josh Allen starts under centre for Buffalo Bills, Brady Cook for New York Jets, with Sean McDermott and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

The market has Buffalo Bills favourites, Buffalo Bills $1.13 and New York Jets $6.50, with the spread at Buffalo Bills -12.5 and the total at 39.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Buffalo Bills 10 · New York Jets 2 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 35-8 (2025) |
| Buffalo Bills 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 home |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 28.3 for · 21.5 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Josh Allen · Brady Cook |
| Head coaches | Sean McDermott · Aaron Glenn |
| Market | Buffalo Bills $1.13 · New York Jets $6.50 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -12.5 · total 39.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Buffalo Bills

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 3W–2L | 60% |
| New York Jets | 1W–2L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, Buffalo Bills have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 1 from 3 (33%). Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for New York Jets).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 14.6pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.4pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Margin | -20.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L | 27.0 |
| New York Jets | W13 W · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L | 14.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Buffalo Bills | 35 – 8 | New York Jets |
| 2025 | W2 | New York Jets | 10 – 30 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2024 | W17 | Buffalo Bills | 40 – 14 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W6 | New York Jets | 20 – 23 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2023 | W11 | Buffalo Bills | 32 – 6 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at New Era Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | James Cook | RB | 14 in 16g | 9/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·0·3·2·0) | 4/6g | 20/37g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.80 AI 63% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.20 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/23g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 4/14g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.50 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/10g | 15/52g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Jackson Hawes | TE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 6/25g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 48' |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/18g | 22% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Gabe Davis | WR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 17/39g | 24% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Josh Palmer | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Keleki Latu | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Trubisky | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/21g | 2% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 20% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brady Cook | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Khalil Herbert | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Quentin Skinner | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Adonai Mitchell 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Beck

**Buffalo Bills** (5 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 63% · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Kincaid — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Dawson Knox — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Ty Johnson — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Keon Coleman — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Bills: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Davis, G.Davis

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Buffalo Bills 1653 · New York Jets 1292 · ELO difference: 361 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 7 | Buffalo Bills +38 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 43 | Buffalo Bills +13 |
| Backfield | 56 | 45 | Buffalo Bills +11 |
| Pass Rush | 37 | 52 | New York Jets +15 |
| Secondary | 46 | 48 | Even |
| Special Teams | 61 | 41 | Buffalo Bills +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Jets |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 92%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-04 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)