# Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Atlanta Falcons 19 – 17 New Orleans Saints

_Atlanta Falcons dive past New Orleans Saints in a tight one._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Atlanta Falcons 79% / New Orleans Saints 21% · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Mon, 05 Jan, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Atlanta Falcons: Drake London (12' Tipped ⚡) · New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough (26'), Ronnie Bell (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 79% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.4 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Jan 2026, 05:00 am_

Atlanta Falcons 19–17 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 18 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two minutes seventeen seconds. That's the gap Tyler Shough had to work with after Ronnie Bell's touchdown made it 19-16 with 1:16 left on the clock. New Orleans needed a two-point play or one more defensive stop to complete the job. They got neither. Atlanta held on, 19-17, and a game the Saints dominated statistically finished with them on the wrong side of the ledger again.

The scoreboard tells a tight story throughout. Drake London opened it in the first quarter, Shough's own touchdown pass pulled the Saints level at the break, near enough, 10-7, and it stayed a one-score contest the rest of the way. Atlanta led 13-10 through three quarters. New Orleans had the ball and the belief until Bell's score with just over a minute left, and then ran out of clock.

Here's the odd part. New Orleans outgained Atlanta 367 yards to 229 and had the better offensive day by any measure that isn't the scoreboard: plus 13.9 expected points per the model's efficiency read, a total that dwarfs anything Atlanta produced through the air or on the ground. Shough threw for 259 against Kirk Cousins' 180. Audric Estimé ran for 63 on 21 carries, more than double Atlanta's team rushing figure of 49. First downs were basically even, 25 to 24.

None of it mattered because of two turnovers. Atlanta gave the ball away once, New Orleans twice, and in a game this close that's the whole ball game. Cousins matched Shough's one interception but didn't hand the Saints the extra possession they needed to turn all that yardage into points that counted.

London was the difference-maker on the other side of the ledger: four catches for 78 yards and the only Atlanta touchdown of the day. Given Atlanta's receiving corps carried a 74 rating into this one against New Orleans' 52, that's the mismatch showing up when it counted. The backfield edge, also 74 to 51, didn't translate to the rushing stat sheet at all, Atlanta managed only 49 yards on the ground, but it didn't need to.

New Orleans arrived on a four-game winning streak in their last five, averaging 24.8 points and conceding just 18. That defensive number took a hit here, letting Atlanta reach 19 despite an offence that could barely move the ball outside London's four catches. Atlanta, by contrast, carried a middling 3-2 form line and a minus-4 average margin into Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Form counted for little.

Alphr's model had Atlanta as 79% favourites, expecting a 7.4-point win off the back of a 1445-to-1408 ratings edge. The actual margin was two. Right side, wrong scale, and the turnover count is exactly the sort of variable that closes a gap like that. The Saints did almost everything but protect the football, and that's the one column that decided it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Atlanta Falcons | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 229 | Total Yards | **367** |
| 180 | Passing Yards | **259** |
| 49 | Rushing Yards | **108** |
| 24 | First Downs | **25** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4 | Sacks Made | 4 |
| -15.8 | Offensive EPA | **-1.9** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Atlanta Falcons to win at 79% probability. The predicted margin of 7.4 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 10 points below Ron Torbert's career average of 46. Atlanta Falcons's victory aligns with Ron Torbert's historical trend, Atlanta Falcons have a 67% win rate under this referee. Atlanta Falcons's home victory fits Ron Torbert's profile, home teams win 55% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.49 (edge +11.3%) — model probability 78.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 7 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Atlanta Falcons here: 79% to see off New Orleans Saints. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Atlanta Falcons sit 37 ELO points clear, 1445 to 1408. Form leans New Orleans Saints' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Atlanta Falcons.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Atlanta Falcons by 7.4, with the two sides combining for about 48. Atlanta Falcons to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New Orleans Saints have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Atlanta Falcons took the most recent meeting 19-17 in 2025 Week 18.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Kirk Cousins starts under centre for Atlanta Falcons, Tyler Shough for New Orleans Saints, with Raheem Morris and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

The market has Atlanta Falcons favourites, Atlanta Falcons $1.49 and New Orleans Saints $2.70, with the spread at Atlanta Falcons -4.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Atlanta Falcons 5 · New Orleans Saints 7 |
| Last meeting | Atlanta Falcons 19-17 (2025) |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kirk Cousins · Tyler Shough |
| Head coaches | Raheem Morris · Kellen Moore |
| Market | Atlanta Falcons $1.49 · New Orleans Saints $2.70 |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons -4.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Atlanta Falcons

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 6W–3L | 67% |
| New Orleans Saints | 6W–5L | 55% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Atlanta Falcons hold a 12-point edge: 6W–3L (67%) vs New Orleans Saints's 6W–5L (55%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Atlanta Falcons | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.8pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | W13 L · W14 L · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W | 23.0 |
| New Orleans Saints | W13 L · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Atlanta Falcons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Atlanta Falcons | 19 – 17 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2025 | W12 | New Orleans Saints | 10 – 24 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2024 | W10 | New Orleans Saints | 20 – 17 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2024 | W4 | Atlanta Falcons | 26 – 24 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2023 | W18 | New Orleans Saints | 48 – 17 | Atlanta Falcons |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 11 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 5/5g | 19/24g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.62 AI 56% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/32g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Drake London | WR | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 10/30g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/8g | 7/37g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Sills | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/15g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.25 AI 19% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Deven Thompkins | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Drummond | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Feleipe Franks | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Audric Estimé | RB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 5/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dante Pettis | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Hull | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nyheim Hines | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Bell | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Samori Toure | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 13 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Shough, R.Bell

**Atlanta Falcons** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 56% · no TD
- ⚡ Drake London 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Kyle Pitts 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Allgeier — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Darnell Mooney — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 19% · no TD
- Rest of the Falcons: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Atlanta Falcons 1445 · New Orleans Saints 1408 · ELO difference: 37 in favour of Atlanta Falcons

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 58 | 61 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 74 | 52 | Atlanta Falcons +22 |
| Backfield | 74 | 51 | Atlanta Falcons +23 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 59 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 64 | 67 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Atlanta Falcons predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r18-atlanta-falcons-v-new-orleans-saints
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-01-04 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)