# Washington Commanders v Dallas Cowboys — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Washington Commanders 23 – 30 Dallas Cowboys

_Dallas Cowboys hold off a fast-finishing Washington Commanders._

Half time: 10 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Washington Commanders 3% / Dallas Cowboys 97% · FedExField · Fri, 26 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Washington Commanders: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (26' Tipped ⚡), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (36' Tipped ⚡) · Dallas Cowboys: Jake Ferguson (6'), Javonte Williams (18' Tipped ⚡), KaVontae Turpin (23')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 97% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.5 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Washington Commanders 23–30 Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 17 at FedExField. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eleven and a half points. That's the gap in offensive EPA between the two sides, 18.5 for Dallas Cowboys against 6.8 for Washington Commanders, and it tells you almost everything about how Dallas Cowboys walked out of FedExField with a 30-23 win. Every time the Cowboys had the ball, they did more with it. Washington had the ball plenty too. It just didn't matter as much.

The scoreboard backs it up before the story even gets going. Jake Ferguson opened it with 9:47 left in the first, and by the 7:11 mark of the second quarter, Javonte Williams and KaVontae Turpin had turned a 6-0 nudge into a 20-3 canter. Washington got one back through Jacory Croskey-Merritt to make it 9-21, but Dallas walked into the sheds up 24-10. From there Washington chipped away, Croskey-Merritt's second major making it 16-24 early in the third, but Dallas kept answering and the margin never dropped below seven the rest of the way.

The yardage tells the same tale from a different angle. Dallas ran up 518 total yards to Washington's 336, and did it with balance: 307 through the air, 211 on the ground, 41 per cent of their output coming from the run. That's a team that didn't need one thing to work, it just needed most things to work, and most things did.

Dak Prescott wasn't especially tidy doing it, 19 of 37 for 307 yards, but he had KaVontae Turpin to lean on, and Turpin made one catch count for a great deal: 86 yards and a touchdown off a single reception. Josh Johnson, for his part, was the more efficient passer on paper, 15 of 23 for 198, but efficient completions to nowhere in particular don't move a scoreboard the way one 86-yard connection does.

Washington's shining light was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and he was genuinely good: 105 yards on just 11 carries, two touchdowns, the best rushing performance on the field by either team. The pass rush showed up too, six sacks to Dallas's two, which on another day might have been the headline. Here it was closer to a footnote, because the Commanders couldn't turn pressure into stops often enough, and Dallas's 36 first downs to Washington's 24 says the Cowboys just kept the chains moving regardless.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the pre-match numbers. Dallas came in rated higher at quarterback, 64 to 42, and in special teams, 75 to 63, two areas that tend to compound over four quarters. Washington had the edge at pass rush and in the secondary, and it showed in fits and starts, but form coming in had Dallas averaging 25.6 points a game to Washington's 17.2, and this result sits almost exactly on that line.

Alphr's model had Dallas at 97 per cent to win, expected them by 12.5, and picked a combined total near 47. The final was 30-23, a seven-point margin, and 53 total points. Not a bullseye, but not far off it either. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one leaned heavily towards a hit.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 23 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total Yards | **518** |
| 198 | Passing Yards | **307** |
| 138 | Rushing Yards | **211** |
| 24 | First Downs | **36** |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 6.8 | Offensive EPA | **18.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dallas Cowboys to win at 97% probability. The predicted margin of 12.5 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 53, within 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 53 points was 7 points above Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Dallas Cowboys's victory aligns with Brad Rogers's historical trend, Dallas Cowboys have a 100% win rate under this referee. Despite Brad Rogers's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Dallas Cowboys prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.20 (edge +13.6%) — model probability 96.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 13 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dallas Cowboys here: 97% to see off Washington Commanders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dallas Cowboys sit 25 ELO points clear, 1447 to 1422. Form leans Dallas Cowboys' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Washington Commanders.

Dallas Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Dallas Cowboys by 12.5, with the two sides combining for about 47. Dallas Cowboys to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dallas Cowboys have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Dallas Cowboys took the most recent meeting 30-23 in 2025 Week 17.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Marcus Mariota starts under centre for Washington Commanders, Dak Prescott for Dallas Cowboys, with Dan Quinn and Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots.

The market has Dallas Cowboys favourites, Washington Commanders $4.80 and Dallas Cowboys $1.20, with the spread at Dallas Cowboys -8.5 and the total at 50.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Washington Commanders 4 · Dallas Cowboys 8 |
| Last meeting | Dallas Cowboys 30-23 (2025) |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 home |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 3-6 away |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Marcus Mariota · Dak Prescott |
| Head coaches | Dan Quinn · Brian Schottenheimer |
| Market | Washington Commanders $4.80 · Dallas Cowboys $1.20 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -8.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dallas Cowboys

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 4W–2L | 67% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 45.7 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Dallas Cowboys have won 6 of 6 games (100%), significantly stronger than Washington Commanders's 4 from 6 (67%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Washington Commanders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 32.2pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | -6.6pts |
| 5.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | W11 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 W · W16 L | 17.2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | W12 W · W13 W · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Washington Commanders | 23 – 30 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2025 | W7 | Dallas Cowboys | 44 – 22 | Washington Commanders |
| 2024 | W18 | Dallas Cowboys | 19 – 23 | Washington Commanders |
| 2024 | W12 | Washington Commanders | 26 – 34 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2023 | W18 | Washington Commanders | 10 – 38 | Dallas Cowboys |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FedExField. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/8g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 36' |
| – | Terry McLaurin | WR | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 16/54g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Sinnott | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Chase Edmonds | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Johnson | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | River Cracraft | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 12 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.59 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 9 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 3/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 2/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jonathan Mingo | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ George Pickens — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Ferguson, K.Turpin

**Washington Commanders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Washington Commanders 1422 · Dallas Cowboys 1447 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Dallas Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Washington Commanders | Dallas Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 64 | Dallas Cowboys +22 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 56 | Even |
| Backfield | 48 | 52 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 49 | Washington Commanders +6 |
| Secondary | 53 | 45 | Washington Commanders +8 |
| Special Teams | 63 | 75 | Dallas Cowboys +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 97%** — Dallas Cowboys predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-25 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)