# Tennessee Titans v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 26 – 34 New Orleans Saints

_New Orleans Saints roar back to march in over Tennessee Titans from 10 down._

Half time: 20 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 36% / New Orleans Saints 64% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: Chig Okonkwo (17'), Elic Ayomanor (30' Tipped ⚡) · New Orleans Saints: Chase Young (26'), Chris Olave (35' Tipped ⚡), Austin (54'), Estime (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 64% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 26–34 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 17 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had New Orleans Saints winning by 6.7, with the two sides combining for 40 points. The Saints did win, but by 8, and the scoreboard finished on 60. Half of that read landed, half of it didn't come close, and the way it played out says something about how misleading a half-time score can be.

Tennessee Titans led 20-10 at the break and looked like the team doing the damage, up 6-0 after the first quarter and stretching it further when Chig Okonkwo scored to make it 12-0. New Orleans Saints got on the board through C.Young, then Elic Ayomanor answered with 17 seconds left in the half to push the Titans out to 19-10, then 20-10 by the break. Two quarters of football, and Tennessee were the ones controlling it.

Then the Saints' offence, the side the model rated stronger going in, started cashing in. Chris Olave's touchdown with 10:39 left in the third cut it to 20-16, and Tennessee still had a 23-20 edge after three quarters. That's when it turned. Kevin Austin Jr. levelled it at 26-26 with 6:26 to go, and Audric Estimé put New Orleans in front for good less than three minutes later, at 26-33. From 20-10 down to winning by 8, that's the shape of the Saints' second half.

The stat sheet backs up why. New Orleans Saints outgained Tennessee 436 yards to 359, with Tyler Shough going 22-of-27 for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns, a tidier day through the air than Cam Ward's 21-of-40 for 251 and 2 touchdowns of his own. Efficiency was the real story: New Orleans ran an offensive EPA of plus-19.4 against Tennessee's minus-13, a gap of 32.4 expected points snap for snap. The ratings had Tennessee with the sharper pass rush coming in, 56 to 52, but it was New Orleans who actually got home more often, sacking Ward 4 times to Tennessee's 2 on Shough.

Individually, Audric Estimé did what a strong backfield rating suggested he might, 94 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown to lead all rushers. Olave was the game's most heavily used target, 8 catches for 119 yards and a score, no shock given New Orleans came in rated well ahead in the receiving corps, 54 to 48. Tennessee's own backfield edge, 55 to 46 pre-match, showed up in the rushing numbers, 108 to 103, but it wasn't enough to offset what New Orleans did through the air.

Turnovers were even at one apiece, and first downs actually favoured Tennessee, 29 to 27. On paper that's a game the Titans should have stayed in the mix for longer than they did. But New Orleans came in with the better recent form, three wins in five against Tennessee's two, and a much stronger secondary rating, 58 to 43, and when it mattered in the second half that gap told.

So the model's win call held up, 64% probability, right side of the ledger. The margin missed by more than a point, and the total blew well past the predicted 40. Tennessee led at the break and still lost by 8. That's the version of this game the pre-match numbers didn't quite see coming.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 6 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 26 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Total Yards | **436** |
| 251 | Passing Yards | **333** |
| **108** | Rushing Yards | 103 |
| **29** | First Downs | 27 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -13 | Offensive EPA | **19.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New Orleans Saints to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 60 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 40. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 39.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 16 points above Adrian Hill's career average of 44. New Orleans Saints bucked the trend, Tennessee Titans historically win 60% of games under Adrian Hill, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.83 (edge +9.2%) — model probability 63.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tennessee Titans by 7 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

New Orleans Saints are the call at 64%, but Tennessee Titans stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New Orleans Saints sit 88 ELO points clear, 1389 to 1301. Form leans New Orleans Saints' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Tennessee Titans.

New Orleans Saints own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Tennessee Titans by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean New Orleans Saints, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Tennessee Titans have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and New Orleans Saints took the most recent meeting 34-26 in 2025 Week 17.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, Tyler Shough for New Orleans Saints, with Brian Callahan and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

The market has New Orleans Saints favourites, Tennessee Titans $2.00 and New Orleans Saints $1.83, with the spread at New Orleans Saints -1.5 and the total at 39.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Tennessee Titans 5 · New Orleans Saints 4 |
| Last meeting | New Orleans Saints 34-26 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · Tyler Shough |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · Kellen Moore |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $2.00 · New Orleans Saints $1.83 |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -1.5 · total 39.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3W–2L | 60% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3W–4L | 43% |

Avg total: 44.4 pts · Home win %: 48% · Home bias: Neutral

When Adrian Hill officiates, Tennessee Titans have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than New Orleans Saints's 3 from 7 (43%). Small sample (5 games for Tennessee Titans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -4.4pts | Avg Margin | 2.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W12 L · W13 L · W14 W · W15 L · W16 W | 21.6 |
| New Orleans Saints | W12 L · W13 L · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New Orleans Saints lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Tennessee Titans | 26 – 34 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2023 | W1 | New Orleans Saints | 16 – 15 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2021 | W10 | Tennessee Titans | 23 – 21 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2019 | W16 | Tennessee Titans | 28 – 38 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2015 | W9 | New Orleans Saints | 28 – 34 | Tennessee Titans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/16g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.60 AI 17% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/20g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 24% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/30g | 10% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | James Proche | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kalel Mullings | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Kinsey | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Audric Estimé | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Dante Pettis | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Hull | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Moliki Matavao | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Bell | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Young, K.Austin, A.Estime

**Tennessee Titans** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyjae Spears 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Chimere Dike — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Elic Ayomanor — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 17% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Titans: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Okonkwo

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1301 · New Orleans Saints 1389 · ELO difference: 88 in favour of New Orleans Saints

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 45 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 54 | New Orleans Saints +6 |
| Backfield | 55 | 46 | Tennessee Titans +9 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 43 | 58 | New Orleans Saints +15 |
| Special Teams | 54 | 65 | New Orleans Saints +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — New Orleans Saints predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)