# San Francisco 49ers v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 42 – 38 Chicago Bears

_San Francisco 49ers dig past Chicago Bears in a tight one._

Half time: 28 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 72% / Chicago Bears 28% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: Jake Tonges (4'), Brock Purdy (11'), Christian McCaffrey (17' Tipped ⚡), Brock Purdy (27'), Kyle Juszczyk (40'), Jauan Jennings (58' Tipped ⚡) · Chicago Bears: T.J. Edwards (1'), Burden (12'), Colston Loveland (18'), D'Andre Swift (36' Tipped ⚡), D'Andre Swift (45' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 72% | Won |
| Chicago Bears | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 12:20 pm_

San Francisco 49ers 42–38 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 17 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

San Francisco 49ers beat Chicago Bears 42-38 at Levi's Stadium, and the scoreline is about the only thing that suggests this was a comfortable night for the home side. It wasn't. Chicago actually posted the better offensive EPA, 22.6 to San Francisco's 19.4, and did it while turning the ball over zero times to San Francisco's one. On raw efficiency, the visitors arguably played the better game. They just came up one score short.

The lead never got away from anyone for long. Chicago opened the scoring through T.Edwards at 14:54 in the first, San Francisco hit back through Jake Tonges, and from there it was a genuine arm wrestle, the two sides trading touchdowns for the rest of the quarter to leave it locked at 14-14 after one. San Francisco pulled ahead through Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy either side of a Colston Loveland reply, and led 28-21 at half-time. Chicago wouldn't go away in the second half either, D'Andre Swift scoring twice, the second of those levelling it at 35-35 with the entire fourth quarter still to play. San Francisco went back in front through Kyle Juszczyk before Swift's equaliser, and it was Jauan Jennings' touchdown with 2:23 left that finally held up as the winner.

The gap in the end was the ground game. San Francisco ran for 200 yards to Chicago's 110, and that near-40 per cent share of their own total yardage on the ground is what let Brock Purdy pick his spots through the air. Christian McCaffrey led all rushers with 140 yards on 23 carries and a touchdown of his own, and with the backfield rated 68 to Chicago's 59 coming in, that was the matchup San Francisco figured to win. First downs told the same story: 47 to 39 San Francisco's way.

Through the air it was actually Chicago's night. Caleb Williams threw for 330 yards against Purdy's 303, and Luther Burden III was the single best weapon on the field, 8 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown. Chicago's receiving corps was rated above San Francisco's before kickoff, 60 to 54, and Burden made that number look conservative. Purdy answered with three touchdown passes and one interception, going 24 of 33, efficient rather than spectacular through the air, and adding two more scores himself on the ground.

Chicago's problem was never scoring. They put up 38 points and still lost, which is a hard way to go out given they'd conceded an average of 18 points a game across their last five, same as San Francisco. San Francisco came in on a five-game winning streak averaging 34.4 points a game over that stretch, Chicago four wins from five with one loss buried in there and averaging 25.8. A high-scoring, back-and-forth finish fits both sides' recent form.

Alphr's model had San Francisco favourites at 72 per cent and picked the margin at 6.9 points off ratings of 1592 to 1562. The actual margin was 4, close enough to call it right. The total is where reality ran past the model: 80 points against a projected 58, a 22-point overshoot that no amount of pre-match modelling on pass rush or secondary, both rated roughly even between these two sides, was ever going to flag.

One-score game from the opening minutes to the final whistle. Chicago did enough to win most nights. San Francisco just had the one score more.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| Chicago Bears | 14 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| **503** | Total Yards | 440 |
| 303 | Passing Yards | **330** |
| **200** | Rushing Yards | 110 |
| **47** | First Downs | 39 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| 19.4 | Offensive EPA | **22.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting San Francisco 49ers by 6.9 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 80 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 58. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 80 points was 31 points above Alex Moore's career average of 49. San Francisco 49ers bucked the trend, Chicago Bears historically win 100% of games under Alex Moore, but couldn't convert that edge today. San Francisco 49ers's home victory fits Alex Moore's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.49 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 71.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 7 · Predicted total: 58

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on San Francisco 49ers here: 72% to see off Chicago Bears. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 30 ELO points clear, 1592 to 1562. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Chicago Bears.

San Francisco 49ers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has San Francisco 49ers by 6.9, with the two sides combining for about 58. San Francisco 49ers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and San Francisco 49ers took the most recent meeting 42-38 in 2025 Week 17.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with Kyle Shanahan and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, San Francisco 49ers $1.49 and Chicago Bears $2.70, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -3.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | San Francisco 49ers 7 · Chicago Bears 5 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 42-38 (2025) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Ben Johnson |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.49 · Chicago Bears $2.70 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Chicago Bears

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Chicago Bears | 1W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 48.7 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Moore officiates, Chicago Bears have won 1 of 1 games (100%), significantly stronger than San Francisco 49ers's 0 from 0 (0%). Games average 48.7 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for San Francisco 49ers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 34.4pts | Avg Score | 25.8pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Margin | 7.8pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W15 W · W16 W | 34.4 |
| Chicago Bears | W12 W · W13 W · W14 L · W15 W · W16 W | 25.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | San Francisco 49ers | 42 – 38 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W14 | San Francisco 49ers | 38 – 13 | Chicago Bears |
| 2022 | W1 | Chicago Bears | 19 – 10 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2021 | W8 | Chicago Bears | 22 – 33 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2018 | W16 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 – 14 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 16 in 15g | 13/10g (1·2·0·2·0·3·1·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 28/27g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.44 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 2/3g | 10/36g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/28g | 18% | — | 🏉 11' 27' |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/62g | 12% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/33g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 45' |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Travis Homer | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Edwards, L.Burden, C.Loveland

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 3 pass) · model 64% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Ricky Pearsall — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Tonges, B.Purdy, K.Juszczyk

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1592 · Chicago Bears 1562 · ELO difference: 30 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 75 | 56 | San Francisco 49ers +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 60 | Chicago Bears +6 |
| Backfield | 68 | 59 | San Francisco 49ers +9 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 56 | Chicago Bears +6 |
| Secondary | 54 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 72 | 62 | San Francisco 49ers +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 58 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-29 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)