# New York Jets v New England Patriots — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Jets 10 – 42 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots run riot over New York Jets._

Half time: 3 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Jets 7% / New England Patriots 93% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Jets: Breece Hall (45' Tipped ⚡) · New England Patriots: Austin Hooper (5'), Rhamondre Stevenson (10' Tipped ⚡), Rhamondre Stevenson (15' Tipped ⚡), Stefon Diggs (27' Tipped ⚡), Hunter Henry (30' Tipped ⚡), Chism (37')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 93% | Won |
| New York Jets | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.2 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Jets vs New England Patriots Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

New York Jets 10–42 New England Patriots in NFL Week 17 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England had this one decided before most Jets fans had found their seats. Austin Hooper scored with 10:46 left in the first quarter, Rhamondre Stevenson added his first four minutes later, and by the end of the opening term it was 14-0. The Jets never got within shouting distance after that.

The gap didn't just hold, it grew. Stevenson scored again to open the second quarter, then Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry piled on before half-time, and New York went to the rooms down 35-3. That's five Patriots touchdowns in the opening thirty minutes, and the contest was effectively over well before the break. Efton Chism made it six team touchdowns for the game early in the third, and by the time Breece Hall got the Jets on the board to open the fourth, the result had long been settled. Final score 42-10.

The stat sheet reads like a team that got outclassed everywhere except on the ground. New England out-gained New York 441 yards to 319 and doubled them up on first downs, 41 to 19. The efficiency numbers back that up: Offensive EPA of 29.3 for the Patriots against minus 12.5 for the Jets, a swing of more than 41 points snap for snap. New York's one real point of leverage was the run game, 164 yards worth, which made up 37 per cent of their offence and was the single category they actually won, 164 to 155.

Through the air it wasn't close. Drake Maye went 19 of 21 for 256 yards and five touchdowns, about as clean an afternoon as a quarterback can have. Brady Cook finished 19 of 33 for 152 yards with an interception, and that turnover mattered given how thin New York's margin for error already was. Stefon Diggs was the most productive target on the field, six catches for 101 yards and a score, while Breece Hall did what

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| New England Patriots | 14 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 42 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Jets | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total Yards | **441** |
| 155 | Passing Yards | **286** |
| **164** | Rushing Yards | 155 |
| 19 | First Downs | **41** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -12.5 | Offensive EPA | **29.3** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.2 but the actual margin was 32 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 6 points above Alex Kemp's career average of 46. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 64% win rate under this referee. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side New England Patriots prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.11 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 92.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 15 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New England Patriots here: 93% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 258 ELO points clear, 1565 to 1307. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Jets.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has New England Patriots by 15.2, with the two sides combining for about 40. New England Patriots to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New England Patriots have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 42-10 in 2025 Week 17.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-0 away, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Brady Cook starts under centre for New York Jets, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Aaron Glenn and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New York Jets $7.25 and New England Patriots $1.11, with the spread at New England Patriots -12.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Jets 2 · New England Patriots 10 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 42-10 (2025) |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-0 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brady Cook · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Aaron Glenn · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | New York Jets $7.25 · New England Patriots $1.11 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -12.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 2W–7L | 22% |
| New England Patriots | 7W–4L | 64% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, New England Patriots have won 7 of 11 games (64%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 2 from 9 (22%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Jets | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 14.6pts | Avg Score | 29.0pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -17.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | W12 L · W13 W · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 14.6 |
| New England Patriots | W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W15 L · W16 W | 29.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | New York Jets | 10 – 42 | New England Patriots |
| 2025 | W11 | New England Patriots | 27 – 14 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W8 | New England Patriots | 25 – 22 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W3 | New York Jets | 24 – 3 | New England Patriots |
| 2023 | W18 | New England Patriots | 3 – 17 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 12/29g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 13% | — | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/14g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/23g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Johnson | WR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brady Cook | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jelani Woods | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Khalil Herbert | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Stone Smartt | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 3% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·3·0·0·2·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 51% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 15' |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Dobbs | QB | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 51% · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 34% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Patriots: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Hooper, E.Chism

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Adonai Mitchell — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Jets 1307 · New England Patriots 1565 · ELO difference: 258 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Jets | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 6 | 57 | New England Patriots +51 |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 62 | New England Patriots +18 |
| Backfield | 44 | 61 | New England Patriots +17 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 47 | Even |
| Secondary | 47 | 59 | New England Patriots +12 |
| Special Teams | 56 | 75 | New England Patriots +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Jets |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 93%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)