# Miami Dolphins v Tampa Bay Buccaneers — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Miami Dolphins 20 – 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

_Miami Dolphins make a splash against a gallant Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 17 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Miami Dolphins 45% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55% · Hard Rock Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Miami Dolphins: Wease (11'), Greg Dulcich (29') · Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Godwin (10'), Mike Evans (60' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 55% | Lost |
| Miami Dolphins | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.1 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Miami Dolphins 20–17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 17 at Hard Rock Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers played the patient game, methodically working the ball down the field for 399 total yards and 33 first downs. Miami Dolphins played for value, taking fewer swings but making the ones that counted. By full time only one of those approaches had points to show for it, and Miami walked out of Hard Rock Stadium 20-17 winners despite getting outgained by 82 yards.

The opening stanza suggested a shootout. Chris Godwin Jr. got Tampa Bay on the board with 5:31 left in the first quarter, and Theo Wease Jr. answered less than a minute later to level it at 7-7, where it stayed through the break in the quarter. Miami then found the gear Tampa Bay never matched. Greg Dulcich's touchdown with 1:46 left in the second quarter pushed the Dolphins out to 16-7, and they took a 17-7 lead into the sheds. Given how the rest of the game played out, that ten-point buffer at half-time turned out to be the difference.

Tampa Bay trimmed it to 17-10 by the end of the third quarter, and Miami had stretched to 20 by the time Mike Evans scored with 54 seconds left in the fourth, making it 20-16 before the extra point brought it home to the final 20-17. Close on the scoreboard, but Miami never actually trailed after that first Wease response back in the first quarter.

Look purely at the yardage column and you would assume Tampa Bay won this one. Baker Mayfield threw for 346 yards on 33-of-44 passing with two touchdowns and two picks, working Jalen McMillan for 7 catches and 114 yards, the game's le

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Total Yards | **399** |
| 172 | Passing Yards | **346** |
| **145** | Rushing Yards | 53 |
| 19 | First Downs | **33** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **4.2** | Offensive EPA | 2.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Miami Dolphins defied the model's 55% prediction for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 8.1 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 8 points below Scott Novak's career average of 45. Miami Dolphins bucked the trend, Tampa Bay Buccaneers historically win 67% of games under Scott Novak, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.40 (edge -16.8%) — model probability 54.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the call at 55%, but Miami Dolphins stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit 43 ELO points clear, 1477 to 1434. Form leans Miami Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8.1, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Miami Dolphins took the most recent meeting 20-17 in 2025 Week 17.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Quinn Ewers starts under centre for Miami Dolphins, Baker Mayfield for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Mike McDaniel and Todd Bowles calling the shots.

The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers favourites, Miami Dolphins $3.05 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.40, with the spread at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Miami Dolphins 2 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 |
| Last meeting | Miami Dolphins 20-17 (2025) |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 5-4 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Quinn Ewers · Baker Mayfield |
| Head coaches | Mike McDaniel · Todd Bowles |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $3.05 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.40 |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6W–3L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.4 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 6 of 9 games (67%), significantly stronger than Miami Dolphins's 2 from 7 (29%). Small sample (7 games for Miami Dolphins).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 21.4pts | Avg Score | 19.0pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.4pts |
| -1.2pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W11 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 L · W16 L | 21.4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W12 L · W13 W · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 19.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Miami Dolphins | 20 – 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2021 | W5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 45 – 17 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2017 | W11 | Miami Dolphins | 20 – 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2013 | W10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22 – 19 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2009 | W10 | Miami Dolphins | 25 – 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 12 in 15g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 22/23g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.89 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darren Waller | TE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 3/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/38g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 6% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quinn Ewers | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Theo Wease Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 8 in 15g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·3·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 6 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Mike Evans | WR | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jalen McMillan | WR | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.25 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Mike Evans 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Sean Tucker — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Jalen McMillan — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Godwin

**Miami Dolphins** (2 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Wease, G.Dulcich

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1434 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1477 · ELO difference: 43 in favour of Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 41 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 49 | 42 | Miami Dolphins +7 |
| Backfield | 66 | 55 | Miami Dolphins +11 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 59 | 60 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)