# Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 16 – 20 Houston Texans

_Houston Texans rope in Los Angeles Chargers in a tight one._

Half time: 3 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 55% / Houston Texans 45% · SoFi Stadium · Sun, 28 Dec, 08:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Gadsden (45'), Omarion Hampton (57' Tipped ⚡) · Houston Texans: Jayden Higgins (2'), Jaylin Noel (6')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 55% | Lost |
| Houston Texans | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.2 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Dec 2025, 08:30 am_

Los Angeles Chargers 16–20 Houston Texans in NFL Week 17 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Houston Texans beat Los Angeles Chargers 20-16 at SoFi Stadium. Straightforward enough on paper, except the Chargers actually finished with more total yards, 310 to 362 sounds like a Houston blowout until you notice the Chargers also picked up 24 first downs to Houston's 21. This was a game the Chargers found ways to lose, not one Houston simply took off them.

The early part of the night belonged entirely to Houston. Jayden Higgins got them moving with 13:30 left in the first, then Jaylin Noel struck again before the 10 minute mark, and Houston led 14-0 through the first quarter. By half-time it was 14-3. A team with Houston's positional edges, stronger at quarterback, receiving corps and secondary on paper, doing exactly what the ratings suggested it might.

Where it got interesting was the second half, because the Chargers dragged themselves back into it without ever getting the ball to bounce their way. Oronde Gadsden II scored with 17 seconds left in the third to make it 17-10, and Omarion Hampton followed with 3:40 to go in the fourth to get Los Angeles within 20-16. That's as close as it got. Houston never trailed all night, but they never got comfortable either.

The number that decided this one sits in the pass rush column. Houston got home five times, the Chargers zero. Justin Herbert still threw for 236 yards and went 21-of-32, but a quarterback under that much pressure is rarely operating on his terms, and it showed in the one interception he coughed up. C.J. Stroud had his own issues, two picks on 16-of-28 for 244 yards, but Houston's two turnovers didn't cost them the way the Chargers' one did.

Woody Marks led all rushers with 71 yards on 19 carries, a fair reflection of Houston's 118 rushing yards to the Chargers' 74, and that ground game matched up with the backfield ratings, where Houston actually rated behind Los Angeles 47 to 59 coming in. Didn't matter. Quentin Johnston was the best receiver on the field regardless of result, 5 catches for 98 yards, but one big target isn't enough when your protection breaks down five times.

The form lines told you who was more likely to win this without telling you it'd be tight. Houston arrived on a five-game winning streak, averaging 25.2 points scored and margins of plus-8. The Chargers had a loss buried in their last five and were grinding out 2.2-point wins on average. Houston's whole recent identity, control the game, keep it comfortable, mostly held up, right up until the fourth quarter got uncomfortable anyway.

Alphr's model actually had the Chargers favoured, 55% with a 3.2-point margin, and Houston winning outright makes that a miss on the head-to-head call. But the shape of it wasn't far off: a 4-point final margin against a 3.2 prediction, and a 36-point total against a 41-point forecast, both well within a sensible range. The pick was wrong. The margins around it weren't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| Houston Texans | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 310 | Total Yards | **362** |
| 236 | Passing Yards | **244** |
| 74 | Rushing Yards | **118** |
| **24** | First Downs | 21 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| -12.7 | Offensive EPA | **-11** |

**Model Report Card**

Houston Texans defied the model's 55% prediction for Los Angeles Chargers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.2 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 36, within 5 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 10 points below Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Houston Texans's victory aligns with Craig Wrolstad's historical trend, Houston Texans have a 71% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.85 (edge +0.9%) — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 3 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Chargers are the call at 55%, but Houston Texans stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Houston Texans sit 39 ELO points clear, 1630 to 1591, so the model is backing Los Angeles Chargers against the ratings gap. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Los Angeles Chargers.

On paper Houston Texans shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The model still sides with Los Angeles Chargers, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 3.2, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Los Angeles Chargers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 6 of the last 11 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 20-16 in 2025 Week 17.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, C.J. Stroud for Houston Texans, with Jim Harbaugh and DeMeco Ryans calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.85 and Houston Texans $1.98, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Los Angeles Chargers 6 · Houston Texans 5 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 20-16 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · DeMeco Ryans |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.85 · Houston Texans $1.98 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Houston Texans

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5W–6L | 45% |
| Houston Texans | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, Houston Texans have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Los Angeles Chargers's 5 from 11 (45%). Small sample (7 games for Houston Texans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W11 L · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W | 21.8 |
| Houston Texans | W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Los Angeles Chargers | 16 – 20 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | WC | Houston Texans | 32 – 12 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2022 | W4 | Houston Texans | 24 – 34 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2021 | W16 | Houston Texans | 41 – 29 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2019 | W3 | Los Angeles Chargers | 20 – 27 | Houston Texans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 8 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 8/23g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 9/16g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 14/36g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 9/48g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jaret Patterson | RB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 19% | — | — |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/11g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Will Dissly | TE | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 2' |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jawhar Jordan | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.25 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $31.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jawhar Jordan 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 2 · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Woody Marks 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Higgins, J.Noel

**Los Angeles Chargers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Gadsden

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Houston Texans hold the ELO advantage (1630 vs 1591), but the market favours Los Angeles Chargers (@1.85). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1591 · Houston Texans 1630 · ELO difference: 39 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 58 | Houston Texans +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 62 | Houston Texans +12 |
| Backfield | 59 | 47 | Los Angeles Chargers +12 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 70 | Houston Texans +13 |
| Special Teams | 75 | 80 | Houston Texans +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Houston Texans |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-27 21:30 UTC (latest tip update)