# Las Vegas Raiders v New York Giants — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 10 – 34 New York Giants

_New York Giants run riot over Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 3 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 75% / New York Giants 25% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Tyler Lockett (45') · New York Giants: Devin Singletary (15' Tipped ⚡), Jaxson Dart (24' Tipped ⚡), Deonte Banks (45'), Jaxson Dart (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 75% | Lost |
| New York Giants | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.6 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 08:05 am_

Las Vegas Raiders 10–34 New York Giants in NFL Week 17 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Las Vegas wanted the big strike. New York wanted the ball in its hands and the clock ticking over. That contrast decided everything at Allegiant Stadium, where the Giants left with a 34-10 win that was never really in doubt once the ground game got rolling.

The shape of it is right there in the yardage split. New York ran for 155 yards, 43 per cent of its total output, patient and repeatable, while Las Vegas managed just 63 on the ground and had to lean on the pass to try to keep pace. Patient football beat ambitious football, and it wasn't especially close: 362 total yards to 255, 29 first downs to 21.

The scoreboard tells the same story in stages. Devin Singletary opened it with a touchdown in the final minute of the first quarter, and Jaxson Dart added another midway through the second to make it 17-3 at the break. Las Vegas got a response through Tyler Lockett late in the third, but New York had an answer within five game seconds through D.Banks to push it straight back out to 26-9, then Dart's second of the night in the fourth put it beyond argument at 33-10.

Turnovers were the other half of the equation. Las Vegas coughed the ball up twice and didn't force a single giveaway of its own, and against a Giants side content to grind possessions that's close to fatal. Add four sacks allowed against only two forced, and the pressure math went New York's way too.

The efficiency number underlines how one-sided the snap-for-snap battle really was: New York finished at plus 14.4 offensive EPA, Las Vegas at minus 11.6, a swing of 25.9 expected points. That's not a team that got outplayed in bursts, that's a team that lost the argument on almost every down.

Individually, Jaxson Dart went 22-of-30 for 207 yards and two scores, doing enough through the air without needing to force anything, while Tyrone Tracy Jr led all rushers with 62 yards on 14 carries and Wan'Dale Robinson was the clear top target on 11 catches for 113 yards. Geno Smith threw for 176 yards and a touchdown for Las Vegas but paid for it with two interceptions, and when your own pass rush only gets home twice against a backfield humming like New York's, the margin for error disappears fast.

None of it lines up with the positional card going in. New York rated ahead across the board, quarterback, backfield, receiving corps, pass rush, secondary, special teams, the lot, and both sides had come in on five-game losing runs. The model still had Las Vegas favoured by 2.6 points and gave them a 75 per cent chance of winning. The actual margin was 24 points the other way, which is about as clean a miss as a prediction model can produce.

Sometimes the ratings on paper just don't survive contact with a team that's decided to keep the ball on the ground and let the clock do the arguing. This was one of those nights.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| New York Giants | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total Yards | **362** |
| 192 | Passing Yards | **207** |
| 63 | Rushing Yards | **155** |
| 21 | First Downs | **29** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -11.6 | Offensive EPA | **14.4** |

**Model Report Card**

New York Giants defied the model's 75% prediction for Las Vegas Raiders, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.6 but the actual margin was 24 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Land Clark's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $2.36 (edge +32.2%) — model probability 74.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Las Vegas Raiders by 3 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Las Vegas Raiders here: 75% to see off New York Giants.

On paper New York Giants shade it, ahead on 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with Las Vegas Raiders, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Las Vegas Raiders by 2.6, with the two sides combining for about 37. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Las Vegas Raiders to win, not to win big.

New York Giants have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and New York Giants took the most recent meeting 34-10 in 2025 Week 17.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 1-8 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Jaxson Dart for New York Giants, with Pete Carroll and Brian Daboll calling the shots.

The market has New York Giants favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $2.36 and New York Giants $1.62, with the spread at New York Giants -3 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Las Vegas Raiders 3 · New York Giants 5 |
| Last meeting | New York Giants 34-10 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 1-8 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Brian Daboll |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $2.36 · New York Giants $1.62 |
| Spread | New York Giants -3 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2W–3L | 40% |
| New York Giants | 2W–3L | 40% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 43% · Home bias: Leans away

Both sides have a similar record under Land Clark, Las Vegas Raiders 2W–3L (40%) and New York Giants 2W–3L (40%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 43%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (5 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 26.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.8pts |
| -14.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W12 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 12.4 |
| New York Giants | W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W15 L · W16 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New York Giants lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Las Vegas Raiders | 10 – 34 | New York Giants |
| 2023 | W9 | Las Vegas Raiders | 30 – 6 | New York Giants |
| 2021 | W9 | New York Giants | 23 – 16 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2017 | W13 | Las Vegas Raiders | 24 – 17 | New York Giants |
| 2013 | W10 | New York Giants | 24 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 6/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.81 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 5 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/18g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Shedrick Jackson | WR | 1 in 1g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Pickett | QB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 6% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Zamir White | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/18g | 7% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 57' |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxson Dart 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Devin Singletary 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Darius Slayton — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Banks

**Las Vegas Raiders** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Lockett

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1288 · New York Giants 1308 · ELO difference: 20 in favour of New York Giants

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 35 | 52 | New York Giants +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 40 | 50 | New York Giants +10 |
| Backfield | 38 | 64 | New York Giants +26 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 57 | New York Giants +10 |
| Secondary | 45 | 54 | New York Giants +9 |
| Special Teams | 45 | 57 | New York Giants +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New York Giants |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Giants |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Giants |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Las Vegas Raiders predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)