# Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Kansas City Chiefs 13 – 20 Denver Broncos

_Denver Broncos roar back to stampede past Kansas City Chiefs._

Half time: 7 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 23% / Denver Broncos 77% · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Fri, 26 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Kansas City Chiefs: Brashard Smith (18') · Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (43'), RJ Harvey (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 77% | Won |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Dec 2025, 12:15 pm_

Kansas City Chiefs 13–20 Denver Broncos in NFL Week 17 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos beat Kansas City Chiefs 20-13 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Check the half-time score, though, and the result looks upside down: Kansas City led 7-6 at the break, the only lead they'd hold all game.

That's the complication here. Brashard Smith's touchdown with 12:56 left in the second quarter put Kansas City up 6-3, and the score sat at 7-6 their favour heading into the sheds. But total yards for the half already pointed the other way. Denver finished the game with 310 yards to Kansas City's 148, more than double, and that gap was building well before half-time. A team can be up on the scoreboard and still be getting outplayed underneath it, and that's what was happening here.

The third quarter is where the numbers caught up with the scoreline. Bo Nix's touchdown with 2:02 left in the third made it 10-12, Denver's first lead of the game, and Kansas City never got it back. Denver led 13-10 at the end of the quarter, then RJ Harvey's touchdown with 1:50 to go in the fourth stretched it to 13-19 before the extra point made it 13-20 at the final whistle. From 7-6 Kansas City at half-time to 20-13 Denver at the end, the shift happened almost entirely in the second half.

The efficiency numbers explain why that shift looks less like a twist and more like a correction. Denver ran an offensive EPA of 6.8 for the game against Kansas City's minus 8.3, a gap of 15.1 expected points across the same number of possessions. First downs told the same story: 33 for Denver, 13 for Kansas City. When one side is moving the chains at that rate and the other isn't, the scoreboard eventually catches up, and it did.

Through the air, Bo Nix went 26-of-38 for 182 yards with a touchdown,

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 148 | Total Yards | **310** |
| 66 | Passing Yards | **182** |
| 82 | Rushing Yards | **128** |
| 13 | First Downs | **33** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -8.3 | Offensive EPA | **6.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 77% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 6.4 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 33 points was 12 points below Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. Denver Broncos bucked the trend, Kansas City Chiefs historically win 67% of games under Bill Vinovich, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.09 (edge -15.1%) — model probability 76.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 6 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 77% to see off Kansas City Chiefs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 102 ELO points clear, 1631 to 1530. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Kansas City Chiefs.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 42. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Kansas City Chiefs have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 20-13 in 2025 Week 17.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Chris Oladokun starts under centre for Kansas City Chiefs, Bo Nix for Denver Broncos, with Andy Reid and Sean Payton calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Kansas City Chiefs $8.00 and Denver Broncos $1.09, with the spread at Denver Broncos -13.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Kansas City Chiefs 8 · Denver Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 20-13 (2025) |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 5-4 home |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 away |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Chris Oladokun · Bo Nix |
| Head coaches | Andy Reid · Sean Payton |
| Market | Kansas City Chiefs $8.00 · Denver Broncos $1.09 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -13.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Kansas City Chiefs

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 14W–7L | 67% |
| Denver Broncos | 6W–11L | 35% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Bill Vinovich officiates, Kansas City Chiefs have won 14 of 21 games (67%), significantly stronger than Denver Broncos's 6 from 17 (35%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 16.6pts | Avg Score | 25.4pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| -6.0pts | Avg Margin | 1.0pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | W12 W · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 16.6 |
| Denver Broncos | W11 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 L | 25.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Kansas City Chiefs | 13 – 20 | Denver Broncos |
| 2025 | W11 | Denver Broncos | 22 – 19 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2024 | W18 | Denver Broncos | 38 – 0 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2024 | W10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 16 – 14 | Denver Broncos |
| 2023 | W8 | Denver Broncos | 24 – 9 | Kansas City Chiefs |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 10/17g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/17g | 23/47g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.50 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/32g | 32% | — | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/26g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/17g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Chris Oladokun | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/38g | 8% | — | — |

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 11 in 15g | 10/10g (0·1·3·1·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.69 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.30 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/12g | 2/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 23% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Michael Bandy | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Denver Broncos** (4 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Troy Franklin — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Evan Engram — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Nix

**Kansas City Chiefs** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Kelce 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Chiefs: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Smith

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Kansas City Chiefs 1530 · Denver Broncos 1631 · ELO difference: 101 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 68 | Denver Broncos +27 |
| Receiving Corps | 49 | 56 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Backfield | 44 | 54 | Denver Broncos +10 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 57 | Even |
| Secondary | 49 | 54 | Denver Broncos +5 |
| Special Teams | 62 | 70 | Denver Broncos +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-26 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)