# Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 17 – 23 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Jacksonville Jaguars rally to hunt down Indianapolis Colts._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 42% / Jacksonville Jaguars 58% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor (18' Tipped ⚡), Mo Alie-Cox (39') · Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (25'), Trevor Lawrence (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 58% | Won |
| Indianapolis Colts | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Indianapolis Colts 17–23 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 17 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two very different philosophies were on show at Lucas Oil Stadium, and only one of them was built to last four quarters. The Colts scratched and clawed for 216 total yards and let field position and short strikes do the work. The Jaguars just kept piling up yardage, 384 of it by the final whistle, until the weight of it became the story. Final score: Jacksonville 23, Indianapolis 17.

The shape of it was there from the opening minutes. Indianapolis led 3-0 after the first quarter on the back of nothing much at all, the kind of possession-first approach you get from a team without the passing game to stretch anyone. Jonathan Taylor's touchdown made it 9-0 and the Colts were up 10-7 at half-time, still playing keep-away with a lead that looked bigger than the underlying numbers.

It didn't hold. Trevor Lawrence found the end zone twice, the second midway through the third quarter to put Jacksonville in front 13-10, and even Mo Alie-Cox's response for the Colts only levelled things at 17-17 heading into the last period. From there Jacksonville pulled away without needing another touchdown, closing it out 23-17.

The efficiency numbers tell you why the Jaguars' patience eventually beat Indianapolis's economy. Jacksonville ran an offensive EPA of plus 5.8 against the Colts' minus 11.1, a gap of nearly 17 expected points snap for snap. That's not a team getting lucky with chunk plays, that's a team consistently doing more with each down. First downs told the same tale, 33 to 23, and the ground game backed it up too, 121 yards to 69.

Through the air, Trevor Lawrence went 23 of 37 for 263 yards and both touchdowns, with one interception. Philip Rivers, working with less, managed 147 yards on 17 of 30 with a touchdown and a pick of his own. Travis Etienne led every rusher with 76 yards on 17 carries, and Parker Washington was the game's most productive target by some distance, 8 catches for 115 yards. Turnovers were even at two apiece, which meant the Jaguars won this on volume and quality of chances rather than a free-turnover swing.

None of it should come as a shock given where these two sides sat coming in. Jacksonville arrived rating higher across every positional category, quarterback (81 to 47), receiving corps (61 to 43), backfield, pass rush, secondary and special teams the lot. Add in form lines running in opposite directions, five straight losses for Indianapolis against five straight wins for Jacksonville, and the pre-match numbers were never going to favour the home side.

Alphr's model had Jacksonville up 1585 to 1469 in its ratings and gave them a 58% chance of the win, with a projected margin of 1.9 points on a combined total near 51. The final margin landed at six, comfortably within range of what a tight, low-key contest was expected to be. The Colts made it competitive by playing a tidy, low-mistake game for large stretches. In the end, though, patient ball control only gets you so far against a team piling up nearly 400 yards of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 216 | Total Yards | **384** |
| 147 | Passing Yards | **263** |
| 69 | Rushing Yards | **121** |
| 23 | First Downs | **33** |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -11.1 | Offensive EPA | **5.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 1.9 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 5 points below Brad Allen's career average of 45. Jacksonville Jaguars bucked the trend, Indianapolis Colts historically win 42% of games under Brad Allen, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Brad Allen's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Jacksonville Jaguars prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.44 (edge -11.3%) — model probability 58.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Jacksonville Jaguars are the call at 58%, but Indianapolis Colts stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Jacksonville Jaguars sit 117 ELO points clear, 1585 to 1469. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Indianapolis Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 51. Lean Jacksonville Jaguars, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 23-17 in 2025 Week 17.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Philip Rivers starts under centre for Indianapolis Colts, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Shane Steichen and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Indianapolis Colts $2.85 and Jacksonville Jaguars $1.44, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Indianapolis Colts 4 · Jacksonville Jaguars 8 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17 (2025) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 6-3 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Philip Rivers · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Liam Coen |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $2.85 · Jacksonville Jaguars $1.44 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Indianapolis Colts

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 5W–7L | 42% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5W–9L | 36% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Indianapolis Colts hold a 6-point edge: 5W–7L (42%) vs Jacksonville Jaguars's 5W–9L (36%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 34.0pts |
| 29.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| -9.4pts | Avg Margin | 16.8pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W12 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 19.6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W | 34.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Indianapolis Colts | 17 – 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2025 | W14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 36 – 19 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2024 | W18 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 – 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2024 | W5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 37 – 34 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2023 | W6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 37 – 20 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 19 in 15g | 12/10g (1·3·3·0·3·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 42/42g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.49 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.80 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 12/48g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 3/6g | 9/31g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 5/24g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Riley Leonard | QB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/37g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 8/50g | 10% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Philip Rivers | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Mallory | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 13 in 15g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·3·1) | 5/7g | 1/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.62 AI 55% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/8g | 2/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 25' 38' |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | DeeJay Dallas | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 5 pass) · model 55% · no TD
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Parker Washington — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Lawrence

**Indianapolis Colts** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 55% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Alec Pierce 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Alie-Cox

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1469 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1585 · ELO difference: 117 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 81 | Jacksonville Jaguars +34 |
| Receiving Corps | 43 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +18 |
| Backfield | 45 | 56 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 59 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 74 | Jacksonville Jaguars +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)