# Green Bay Packers v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 24 – 41 Baltimore Ravens

_Baltimore Ravens outsmart Green Bay Packers._

Half time: 14 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 49% / Baltimore Ravens 51% · Lambeau Field · Sun, 28 Dec, 12:00 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (10' Tipped ⚡), Malik Willis (29'), Malik Willis (43') · Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (8' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (17' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (30' Tipped ⚡), Zay Flowers (50' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 51% | Won |
| Green Bay Packers | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Dec 2025, 12:00 pm_

Green Bay Packers 24–41 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 17 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Derrick Henry ran for 216 yards on 36 carries by himself. That's the number that broke Green Bay, and it's how Baltimore Ravens left Lambeau Field with a 41-24 win that was never as close as a 17-point margin makes it sound.

Henry scored four times. Four. He opened the game with a touchdown inside the first two minutes and closed it with one inside the last two, and in between he just kept coming. Baltimore's 307 rushing yards made up 74% of their total output, which tells you the passing game barely needed to show up. Tyler Huntley went 16-of-20 for a modest 107 yards and a touchdown, job done without ever needing to carry the load.

Green Bay actually won the passing battle by a mile. Malik Willis was excellent, 18-of-21 for 288 yards and finding the end zone twice himself, and Christian Watson had the best individual day for either side through the air with 5 catches for 113 yards and a score. Problem is, none of that mattered much when the other side is grinding out 307 yards on the ground and stacking points on the board regardless.

The scoreboard tells the story of a game that never really let Green Bay in front for long. Watson's early touchdown briefly tied it at 7-7 after Henry's opener, but Baltimore answered before the first quarter was out and kept answering. By half-time it was 27-14, and a third-quarter Willis touchdown only briefly threatened a contest before Henry and Zay Flowers put it well out of reach in the fourth.

The efficiency numbers back up what the scoreline suggests: Baltimore ran a +21.0 expected points advantage on offence, 25.8 to Green Bay's 4.8. That's not a game decided by one big play, that's a team moving the ball better on essentially every snap. Two turnovers from Green Bay didn't help either, handing Baltimore extra opportunities they didn't need but gladly used.

Pre-match, the shape of this made some sense and some of it didn't. Green Bay's special teams rating of 87 dwarfed Baltimore's 59, and their secondary and pass rush numbers were both softer for the Ravens on paper. But Baltimore's backfield rating of 61 against Green Bay's 55 turned out to be the number that mattered most, and Henry made sure of it in the most literal way possible.

Alphr's model picked Baltimore to win at 51%, so the right side of the ledger got ticked. The margin read was nowhere close though, tipped at 4.3 points when the actual gap was 17. The total was off too, 41 points predicted against 65 actually scored. Henry's day alone accounted for more than the model expected from the entire Baltimore backfield, and no forecast holds up against a bloke averaging six yards a carry on 36 attempts.

Green Bay leave Lambeau with plenty of offence to point to and precious little defence to be proud of. Baltimore leave with the form line you'd want against a side chasing them, and a reminder that sometimes the simplest gameplan, just hand it to Henry, still wins football games.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 20 | 0 | 14 | 41 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 375 | Total Yards | **414** |
| **296** | Passing Yards | 107 |
| 79 | Rushing Yards | **307** |
| 28 | First Downs | **34** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| 4.8 | Offensive EPA | **25.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.3 but the actual margin was 17 points. The game's 65 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 38.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 65 points was 21 points above Alan Eck's career average of 44. Baltimore Ravens's victory aligns with Alan Eck's historical trend, Baltimore Ravens have a 100% win rate under this referee. Despite Alan Eck's 69% career home-team win rate, the away side Baltimore Ravens prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $2.20 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 38.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens. The model can't split them, landing on Baltimore Ravens at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Green Bay Packers sit 81 ELO points clear, 1620 to 1539, so the model is backing Baltimore Ravens against the ratings gap. Form leans Green Bay Packers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Baltimore Ravens.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Green Bay Packers have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 41-24 in 2025 Week 17.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Matt LaFleur and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.70 and Baltimore Ravens $2.20, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -2.5 and the total at 38.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Green Bay Packers 4 · Baltimore Ravens 3 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 41-24 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 5-3 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · John Harbaugh |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.70 · Baltimore Ravens $2.20 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -2.5 · total 38.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 0W–2L | 0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 44.4 pts · Home win %: 69% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 3 of 3 games (100%), significantly stronger than Green Bay Packers's 0 from 2 (0%). Home teams win 69% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (2 games for Green Bay Packers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 21.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.4pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 L · W16 L | 24.8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W12 W · W13 L · W14 L · W15 W · W16 L | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Green Bay Packers | 24 – 41 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2021 | W15 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 – 31 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2017 | W11 | Green Bay Packers | 0 – 23 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2013 | W6 | Baltimore Ravens | 17 – 19 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2009 | W13 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 14 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 14 in 14g | 10/10g (2·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 14/16g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/28g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.75 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 13/24g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 24% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/22g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Reed | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/19g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Tune | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Malik Willis | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 11% | — | 🏉 29' 43' |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 12 in 15g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 17' 30' 58' |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.70 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Huntley | QB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 54% · **scored Q1, Q2, Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Christian Watson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Willis

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1620 · Baltimore Ravens 1539 · ELO difference: 81 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 45 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 46 | Green Bay Packers +8 |
| Backfield | 55 | 61 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 55 | Baltimore Ravens +7 |
| Secondary | 53 | 61 | Baltimore Ravens +8 |
| Special Teams | 87 | 59 | Green Bay Packers +28 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)