# Cleveland Browns v Pittsburgh Steelers — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cleveland Browns 13 – 6 Pittsburgh Steelers

_Cleveland Browns grind down a gallant Pittsburgh Steelers._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cleveland Browns 27% / Pittsburgh Steelers 73% · FirstEnergy Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cleveland Browns: Fannin (10') · Pittsburgh Steelers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 73% | Lost |
| Cleveland Browns | 27% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Cleveland Browns 13–6 Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 17 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Zero. That's the number that matters here: Pittsburgh Steelers' touchdown count, for the whole match. Cleveland Browns won 13-6 at FirstEnergy Stadium without ever needing to outplay the Steelers on the stat sheet, because you can gain all the yards you like if you can't get the ball across the line.

And the Steelers gained plenty. 299 total yards to Cleveland's 264, 131 rushing yards to 78, 23 first downs to 19. By most of the numbers that build a football game, Pittsburgh had the better night. They just kept finding ways to leave points out on the field.

The shape of it: Harold Fannin Jr. got Cleveland on the board with 5:18 left in the first quarter, and the Browns led 10-0 by quarter's end. Pittsburgh clawed back to 10-6 by half-time, and that's where it sat through the third quarter as well, still 10-6. Cleveland added a field goal late to make it 13-6, and that was the ballgame. No lead change, ever, for Pittsburgh, despite outgaining Cleveland by 35 yards.

Turnovers explain most of the gap. Cleveland coughed it up twice to Pittsburgh's zero, and normally that's the kind of ledger that costs you the game outright. Shedeur Sanders threw two picks to go with his one touchdown, finishing 17-of-23 for 186 yards. Aaron Rodgers, opposite him, went 21-of-39 for 168 and had nothing to show for it in the end zone. Sacks were even at two apiece, and offensive EPA had Cleveland at minus-11.4 against Pittsburgh's minus-12.7, both offences grinding rather than flowing, but Pittsburgh's was worse when it counted.

On the ground, Jaylen Warren was the best runner on the field by some margin, 64 yards on 12 carries, and Pat Freiermuth was the clear top target with three catches for 63 yards. None of it turned into six points. That's the story of Pittsburgh's night in one line: individually productive, collectively toothless in the red zone.

Going in, this looked like a mismatch on paper. Pittsburgh held the edge at quarterback, 60 to 36, in the backfield, 73 to 53, and across the secondary and special teams too. Cleveland's only real advantage was pass rush, 63 to 53, and their recent form was ugly, one win in five against Pittsburgh's three, with an average margin of minus-7.4 compared to Pittsburgh sitting dead even at plus-0.2.

The model had Pittsburgh at 73% to win, rating them 1559 to Cleveland's 1329, though the predicted margin was tight, just 0.2 points, on a projected total of 32. The lopsided win probability didn't hold up, but the closeness of the margin call did. Reality landed on a 7-point Cleveland win, well within range of what a near-even margin prediction allows for, even if the favourite tag went the wrong way.

Wins and misses, all of it. Pittsburgh outgained their opponent by 35 yards and still walked out with nothing to show for it, because two turnovers and no touchdowns will beat you every time, no matter what the yardage column says.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 264 | Total Yards | **299** |
| **186** | Passing Yards | 168 |
| 78 | Rushing Yards | **131** |
| 19 | First Downs | **23** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-11.4** | Offensive EPA | -12.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Cleveland Browns defied the model's 73% prediction for Pittsburgh Steelers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 0.2 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 35.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 19 points was 27 points below John Hussey's career average of 46. Cleveland Browns bucked the trend, Pittsburgh Steelers historically win 54% of games under John Hussey, but couldn't convert that edge today. Cleveland Browns's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $1.49 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 72.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 0 · Predicted total: 32

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Pittsburgh Steelers here: 73% to see off Cleveland Browns. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Pittsburgh Steelers sit 230 ELO points clear, 1559 to 1329. Form leans Pittsburgh Steelers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cleveland Browns.

Pittsburgh Steelers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Pittsburgh Steelers to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Cleveland Browns taking the most recent 13-6 in 2025 Week 17.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 4-4 away, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Shedeur Sanders starts under centre for Cleveland Browns, Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh Steelers, with Kevin Stefanski and Mike Tomlin calling the shots.

The market has Pittsburgh Steelers favourites, Cleveland Browns $2.70 and Pittsburgh Steelers $1.49, with the spread at Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 and the total at 35.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cleveland Browns 6 · Pittsburgh Steelers 6 |
| Last meeting | Cleveland Browns 13-6 (2025) |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 home |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 4-4 away |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Shedeur Sanders · Aaron Rodgers |
| Head coaches | Kevin Stefanski · Mike Tomlin |
| Market | Cleveland Browns $2.70 · Pittsburgh Steelers $1.49 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 · total 35.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Pittsburgh Steelers

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 2W–8L | 20% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7W–6L | 54% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, Pittsburgh Steelers have won 7 of 13 games (54%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 2 from 10 (20%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 24.2pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| -7.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | W12 W · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 16.8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W12 L · W13 L · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cleveland Browns lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Cleveland Browns | 13 – 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2025 | W6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 – 9 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 – 14 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W12 | Cleveland Browns | 24 – 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2023 | W11 | Cleveland Browns | 13 – 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FirstEnergy Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | — |
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/18g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 16% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/16g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.60 AI 20% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Raheim Sanders | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Shedeur Sanders | QB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brenden Bates | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sal Cannella | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Trayveon Williams | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 2/7g | 2/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 53% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.50 AI 18% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 7% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.90 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Scott Miller | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 53% · no TD
- ⚡ Darnell Washington — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · no TD
- ⚡ Pat Freiermuth — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 18% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

**Cleveland Browns** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Jerry Jeudy 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- ⚡ Dylan Sampson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 16% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cleveland Browns 1329 · Pittsburgh Steelers 1559 · ELO difference: 229 in favour of Pittsburgh Steelers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 36 | 60 | Pittsburgh Steelers +24 |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Backfield | 53 | 73 | Pittsburgh Steelers +20 |
| Pass Rush | 63 | 53 | Cleveland Browns +10 |
| Secondary | 47 | 57 | Pittsburgh Steelers +10 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 56 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Pittsburgh Steelers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 32 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)