# Cincinnati Bengals v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals 37 – 14 Arizona Cardinals

_Cincinnati Bengals run riot over Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 23 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 82% / Arizona Cardinals 18% · Paycor Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase (6' Tipped ⚡), Samaje Perine (15' Tipped ⚡), Ja'Marr Chase (29' Tipped ⚡), Chase Brown (38' Tipped ⚡), Chase Brown (44' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson (19' Tipped ⚡), Trey McBride (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 82% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.7 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Cincinnati Bengals 37–14 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 17 at Paycor Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati Bengals won this one the boring way and Arizona Cardinals lost it doing the opposite. The Bengals ran 120 yards on the ground, worked the clock, kept picking up first downs (44 of them to Arizona's 21) and let Joe Burrow pick his spots. The Cardinals, needing answers all night, threw it 37 times through Jacoby Brissett and still finished with 42 fewer total yards than Cincinnati managed on their own terms. Final score: Bengals 37, Cardinals 14.

The gap showed up early and never really closed. Ja'Marr Chase opened the scoring in the first quarter, Samaje Perine punched one in to make it 13-0 barely a minute into the second, and even when Michael Wilson got the Cardinals on the board it only briefly interrupted the flow. Chase struck again before halftime and Cincinnati went to the break up 23-7. That's not a scoreline that invites a comeback, and Arizona never really threatened one.

Chase Brown made sure the third quarter buried it for good. Two touchdowns in the space of six minutes, at 7:38 and 1:41, stretched it to 37-7 and turned the final quarter into a formality. Arizona got a late touchdown from Trey McBride with under two minutes left, more scoreboard tidying than statement.

The efficiency numbers back up what the eye saw. Cincinnati's offensive EPA sat at 23.8 against Arizona's minus 2.5, a swing of over 26 points in expected value snap for snap. Burrow went 24 of 31 for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns, clean and unhurried. Brissett had to work far harder for less, 21 of 37 for 212 and 2 scores of his own, and the extra volume didn't turn into extra yards.

Chase Brown was the workhorse the game plan needed, 101 yards on 22 carries plus his two touchdowns, doing exactly what a 120-yard rushing performance is supposed to do: eat clock, wear down a defence, keep Arizona's offence off the field. Michael Wilson was arguably Arizona's best individual performer regardless of the result, 5 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown, but one man beating the Bengals' secondary in isolation was never going to be enough against a unit rated 64 to Arizona's 55.

The positional card actually favoured Arizona's receiving corps coming in, 65 to Cincinnati's 57, and Wilson's night justified that number. Everywhere else, though, the Bengals held the edge, and special teams was the biggest gap on the sheet, 72 to 53. Add in the form lines, Cincinnati arriving 2-0 across their last five with a positive average margin, Arizona 0-5 with a minus 12.2 average margin, and this had the shape of a mismatch before kickoff.

Alphr's model saw the win coming, 82% probability for Cincinnati, and got there for good reason given the Elo gap of 1463 to 1358. Where it undersold things was the margin, tipped at 10.7 against an actual 23, one of those nights where the favourite doesn't just win but makes a point of it. The total of 48 was closer to the mark, with 51 points actually going up on the board. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 16 | 14 | 0 | 37 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| **449** | Total Yards | 254 |
| **329** | Passing Yards | 212 |
| **120** | Rushing Yards | 42 |
| **44** | First Downs | 21 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| **23.8** | Offensive EPA | -2.5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cincinnati Bengals to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.7 but the actual margin was 23 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 51, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 5 points above Clay Martin's career average of 46. Cincinnati Bengals's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, Cincinnati Bengals have a 60% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.29 (edge +4.8%) — model probability 82.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 11 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cincinnati Bengals here: 82% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cincinnati Bengals sit 105 ELO points clear, 1463 to 1358. Form leans Cincinnati Bengals' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Arizona Cardinals.

Cincinnati Bengals own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Cincinnati Bengals by 10.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Cincinnati Bengals to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 4 wins each from the last 8 meetings, Cincinnati Bengals taking the most recent 37-14 in 2025 Week 17.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Joe Burrow starts under centre for Cincinnati Bengals, Jacoby Brissett for Arizona Cardinals, with Zac Taylor and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has Cincinnati Bengals favourites, Cincinnati Bengals $1.29 and Arizona Cardinals $3.75, with the spread at Cincinnati Bengals -7 and the total at 52.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Cincinnati Bengals 4 · Arizona Cardinals 4 |
| Last meeting | Cincinnati Bengals 37-14 (2025) |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 home |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Burrow · Jacoby Brissett |
| Head coaches | Zac Taylor · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals $1.29 · Arizona Cardinals $3.75 |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -7 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cincinnati Bengals

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3W–2L | 60% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Cincinnati Bengals have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Arizona Cardinals's 2 from 6 (33%). Small sample (5 games for Cincinnati Bengals).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 26.2pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 1.4pts | Avg Margin | -12.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | W12 L · W13 W · W14 L · W15 L · W16 W | 26.2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W12 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L · W16 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cincinnati Bengals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 37 – 14 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2023 | W5 | Arizona Cardinals | 20 – 34 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | W5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 23 – 26 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2015 | W11 | Arizona Cardinals | 34 – 31 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2011 | W16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 23 – 16 | Arizona Cardinals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Paycor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 19/24g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 45% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·3) | 0/1g | 7/22g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.74 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 44' |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 18/30g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.63 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.40 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 29' |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/21g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/18g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Joe Burrow | QB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/23g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 10 in 15g | 9/10g (1·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josiah Deguara | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steven Sims | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Weaver | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Michael Wilson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Cincinnati Bengals** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 54% · **scored Q3, Q3**
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 46% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Tee Higgins — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Samaje Perine — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Bengals: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cincinnati Bengals 1463 · Arizona Cardinals 1358 · ELO difference: 105 in favour of Cincinnati Bengals

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cincinnati Bengals | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 55 | 48 | Cincinnati Bengals +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 65 | Arizona Cardinals +8 |
| Backfield | 56 | 52 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 45 | Cincinnati Bengals +5 |
| Secondary | 64 | 55 | Cincinnati Bengals +9 |
| Special Teams | 72 | 53 | Cincinnati Bengals +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Cincinnati Bengals predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)