# Carolina Panthers v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carolina Panthers 10 – 27 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks soar past Carolina Panthers._

Half time: 3 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carolina Panthers 27% / Seattle Seahawks 73% · Bank of America Stadium · Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young (47') · Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (37' Tipped ⚡), AJ Barner (40' Tipped ⚡), Zach Charbonnet (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 73% | Won |
| Carolina Panthers | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Carolina Panthers 10–27 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 17 at Bank of America Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Minus 28.8 to minus 7.2. That's the offensive EPA split, and it tells you everything about how Seattle Seahawks left Bank of America Stadium with a 27-10 win over Carolina Panthers. Every snap the Panthers ran was working against them. Seattle's were, on balance, working for them. A 21.5-point gap in per-play efficiency doesn't always show up so cleanly on the scoreboard, but this time it did.

It didn't look like a rout early. Seattle led just 3-0 after the first quarter and the sides went to the sheds locked at 3-3. Then the third quarter happened. Zach Charbonnet scored with 8:49 left in the period to make it 9-3, AJ Barner followed with 5:39 to go to push it to 16-3, and Seattle closed the quarter out 17-3. Carolina got one back through Bryce Young early in the fourth to make it interesting at 17-9, but Charbonnet's second touchdown with 2:35 left shut the door at 26-10, and Seattle ran it out from there.

The yardage tells the same story as the EPA number. Seattle finished with 310 total yards to Carolina's 153, more than double. They ran for 163 of it, 53 per cent of their offence, with Charbonnet doing the heavy lifting: 110 yards on 18 carries and both his touchdowns. Sam Darnold didn't need to do much through the air and still did plenty, 18 of 27 for 147 yards and a touchdown, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba the clear top target on 9 catches for 72 yards.

Bryce Young kept Carolina competitive in patches, 14 of 24 for 54 yards with his own touchdown, but that passing total is the number that sums up Carolina's night. Fifty-four yards through the air isn't going to trouble anyone, and it left the Panthers leaning on 99 rushing yards that never threatened to be enough. First downs told the same story, 12 for Carolina against 25 for Seattle. Both sides turned it over twice, so that wasn't the separator. The separator was who did more with the ball when they had it.

None of this should have surprised anyone who looked at the sheet beforehand. Seattle came in on a five-game winning streak, averaging 29.8 points a game to Carolina's 22, and carried edges everywhere but under centre: receiving corps, backfield, pass rush, secondary, and a lopsided 87-to-61 gap at special teams. Carolina's only real advantage on paper was at quarterback, 67 to 53, and Young's day, one touchdown, one pick, 54 yards passing, wasn't enough to turn that into a scoreline.

Alphr's model had Seattle at 1669 to Carolina's 1413, a 73 per cent win probability and a projected margin of 9.7 on a total of 47. The lean was right. The gap wasn't. Seattle won by 17, almost double the expected margin, and did it in the manner the ratings suggested they could: control up front, efficiency everywhere, and a Carolina outfit that never found a way to make its one advantage matter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carolina Panthers | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Total Yards | **310** |
| 54 | Passing Yards | **147** |
| 99 | Rushing Yards | **163** |
| 12 | First Downs | **25** |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -28.8 | Offensive EPA | **-7.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.7 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 8 points below Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Carl Cheffers's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 73% win rate under this referee. Despite Carl Cheffers's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Seattle Seahawks prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.33 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 73.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carolina Panthers +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 10 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 73% to see off Carolina Panthers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 256 ELO points clear, 1669 to 1413. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Carolina Panthers.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 47. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 27-10 in 2025 Week 17.

Carolina Panthers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 18.3 points for and 22.4 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Bryce Young starts under centre for Carolina Panthers, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Dave Canales and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

Seattle Seahawks come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Carolina Panthers $3.45 and Seattle Seahawks $1.33, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -6.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Carolina Panthers 3 · Seattle Seahawks 9 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 27-10 (2025) |
| Carolina Panthers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 home |
| Carolina Panthers scoring | 18.3 for · 22.4 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bryce Young · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Dave Canales · Mike Macdonald |
| Rest | Carolina Panthers 7d · Seattle Seahawks 10d |
| Market | Carolina Panthers $3.45 · Seattle Seahawks $1.33 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 6W–13L | 32% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 16W–6L | 73% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Seattle Seahawks have won 16 of 22 games (73%), significantly stronger than Carolina Panthers's 6 from 19 (32%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carolina Panthers | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 29.8pts |
| 23.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| -1.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | W11 W · W12 L · W13 W · W15 L · W16 W | 22.0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W · W16 W | 29.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Carolina Panthers | 10 – 27 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2023 | W3 | Seattle Seahawks | 37 – 27 | Carolina Panthers |
| 2022 | W14 | Seattle Seahawks | 24 – 30 | Carolina Panthers |
| 2019 | W15 | Carolina Panthers | 24 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2018 | W12 | Carolina Panthers | 27 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bank of America Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carolina Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rico Dowdle | RB | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chuba Hubbard | RB | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 12/36g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Legette | WR | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/12g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Coker | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Evans | TE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bryce Young | QB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/20g | 12% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Tommy Tremble | TE | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/34g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brycen Tremayne | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Horn Jr. | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Etienne | RB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 10 in 15g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 58' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Cam Akers | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ AJ Barner — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Seahawks: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Carolina Panthers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Rico Dowdle 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Tetairoa McMillan 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Panthers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Young

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carolina Panthers 1413 · Seattle Seahawks 1669 · ELO difference: 256 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Carolina Panthers | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 67 | 53 | Carolina Panthers +14 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 60 | Seattle Seahawks +7 |
| Backfield | 52 | 57 | Seattle Seahawks +5 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 56 | Seattle Seahawks +9 |
| Secondary | 63 | 69 | Seattle Seahawks +6 |
| Special Teams | 61 | 87 | Seattle Seahawks +26 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Carolina Panthers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Seattle Seahawks |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-28 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)