# Atlanta Falcons v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Atlanta Falcons 27 – 24 Los Angeles Rams

_Atlanta Falcons hold off a fast-finishing Los Angeles Rams._

Half time: 21 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Atlanta Falcons 15% / Los Angeles Rams 85% · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Tue, 30 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson (9' Tipped ⚡), Jessie Bates (22'), Bijan Robinson (29' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Rams: Terrance Ferguson (40'), Jared Verse (45'), Puka Nacua (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 85% | Lost |
| Atlanta Falcons | 15% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Dec 2025, 12:15 pm_

Atlanta Falcons 27–24 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 17 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr had the Rams favourites by 5.6 points and gave them an 85% chance of leaving Atlanta with the win. Final score: Falcons 27, Rams 24. One of those results where the model's logic wasn't wrong so much as the game found a different way to get there.

The read on paper made sense. Los Angeles held the edge at quarterback, 78 to 56, and in the backfield, 66 to 72. Matthew Stafford threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns, well clear of Kirk Cousins' 126 on 13-of-20 passing. The Rams even outgained Atlanta for the match, 384 yards to 345. By most of the surface numbers, this was their game to win.

It wasn't, and the reason sits in two columns: turnovers and the ground game. Atlanta didn't give the ball away once. The Rams did it three times, and each one came with Atlanta already up big. Bijan Robinson scored twice inside the first two quarters, the Falcons led 21-0 at the break, and from there the Rams were playing catch-up against a lead built on 219 rushing yards, 57% of Atlanta's total offence. Robinson finished with 195 of those on 22 carries. That's not a passing team stealing a win, that's one back putting a game away with his legs.

The Rams did make it interesting. Terrance Ferguson's score with just over five minutes left in the third cut it to 24-9, Jalen Verse followed before the quarter was out to make it 24-16, and Puka Nacua's touchdown with 2:52 left in the fourth brought it to 24-23. A three-point game, decided in the final minutes, and suddenly the model's pre-match margin of 5.6 didn't look far off the mark at all. The final gap was three. It just landed on the wrong side of the ledger.

What the stat sheet doesn't show at a glance is how badly the turnovers undercut Stafford's night. Three interceptions against 269 yards and two scores is the kind of line that reads fine until you remember each pick handed Atlanta the ball back with a three-score cushion already in place. Xavier Smith led all receivers with four catches for 67 yards, tidy work, but it wasn't enough to offset the giveaways.

Where the Falcons actually won it, and where the model's inputs undersold them, was in the trenches. Atlanta's pass rush got home three times to the Rams' zero, and Atlanta's offence ran +6.1 expected points added against LA's -6.3, a 12.4-point efficiency gap snap for snap. Given the Rams came in averaging 37 points a game over their last five against Atlanta's 22.4, and carrying an average margin of plus-11.6 to Atlanta's minus-1.8, that split was always going to be the difference between a comfortable Rams cover and exactly what happened instead.

The model backed the better roster on paper. Atlanta backed Robinson's legs and a defence that got off the field with strip after strip of pressure. This time the paper lost.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Atlanta Falcons | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Total Yards | **384** |
| 126 | Passing Yards | **269** |
| **219** | Rushing Yards | 115 |
| 23 | First Downs | **25** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **6.1** | Offensive EPA | -6.3 |

**Model Report Card**

Atlanta Falcons defied the model's 85% prediction for Los Angeles Rams, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 5 points above Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Atlanta Falcons bucked the trend, Los Angeles Rams historically win 58% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.26 (edge +6.1%) — model probability 85.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 85% to see off Atlanta Falcons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 249 ELO points clear, 1674 to 1424.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Rams to win, not to win big.

Atlanta Falcons have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Atlanta Falcons took the most recent meeting 27-24 in 2025 Week 17.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Kirk Cousins starts under centre for Atlanta Falcons, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Raheem Morris and Sean McVay calling the shots.

Los Angeles Rams come in fresher, 11 days between games against 8.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Atlanta Falcons $4.00 and Los Angeles Rams $1.26, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -7.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Atlanta Falcons 8 · Los Angeles Rams 4 |
| Last meeting | Atlanta Falcons 27-24 (2025) |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kirk Cousins · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Raheem Morris · Sean McVay |
| Rest | Atlanta Falcons 8d · Los Angeles Rams 11d |
| Market | Atlanta Falcons $4.00 · Los Angeles Rams $1.26 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -7.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 6W–9L | 40% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7W–5L | 58% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 7 of 12 games (58%), significantly stronger than Atlanta Falcons's 6 from 15 (40%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Atlanta Falcons | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 37.0pts |
| 24.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.4pts |
| -1.8pts | Avg Margin | 11.6pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 11.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | W12 W · W13 L · W14 L · W15 W · W16 W | 22.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W12 W · W13 L · W14 W · W15 W · W16 L | 37.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Atlanta Falcons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Atlanta Falcons | 27 – 24 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2022 | W2 | Los Angeles Rams | 31 – 27 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2019 | W7 | Atlanta Falcons | 10 – 37 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2017 | W18 | Los Angeles Rams | 13 – 26 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2016 | W14 | Los Angeles Rams | 14 – 42 | Atlanta Falcons |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 17/23g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.86 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 29' |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/31g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Drake London | WR | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·3·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 10/29g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 49% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 7/36g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | David Sills | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Woerner | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chris Blair | WR | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Deven Thompkins | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Drummond | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Teagan Quitoriano | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 13 in 15g | 9/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 50% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.76 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 40% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 55% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 50% · no TD
- ⚡ Blake Corum — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Ferguson, J.Verse

**Atlanta Falcons** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 54% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Drake London 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 49% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Pitts — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Falcons: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Bates

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Atlanta Falcons 1424 · Los Angeles Rams 1674 · ELO difference: 249 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Atlanta Falcons | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 56 | 78 | Los Angeles Rams +22 |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 66 | Even |
| Backfield | 66 | 72 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 57 | Even |
| Special Teams | 63 | 73 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Los Angeles Rams |

**Model Confidence: 85%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-30 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)