# Washington Commanders v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Washington Commanders 18 – 29 Philadelphia Eagles

_Philadelphia Eagles roar back to swoop on Washington Commanders._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Washington Commanders 32% / Philadelphia Eagles 68% · FedExField · Sun, 21 Dec, 09:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Washington Commanders: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (27' Tipped ⚡), Rodriguez (59') · Philadelphia Eagles: DeVonta Smith (13' Tipped ⚡), Dallas Goedert (42' Tipped ⚡), Saquon Barkley (49' Tipped ⚡), Tank Bigsby (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 68% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Dec 2025, 09:00 am_

Washington Commanders 18–29 Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 16 at FedExField. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Washington Commanders led at the break, 10-7. Chris Rodriguez Jr. had already found the line, the home side had done enough to be up on the board, and FedExField had every reason to think it might hold. It didn't.

Philadelphia Eagles took the game away from them in the third and fourth quarters, and once Dallas Goedert made it 10-13 with 3:33 left in the third, Washington never saw the front of the scoreboard again. Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby turned a two-point game into a laugher inside the final quarter, Barkley crossing at the 11:41 mark and Bigsby following it up at 4:33 to push it out to 10-27. Rodriguez got one back with 1:13 to go, but 29-18 was already written by then.

The final numbers tell you why the second half went that way. Philadelphia outgained Washington 392 yards to 228, with 207 of that coming on the ground, more than half their entire output. Barkley alone put up 132 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown, running through a Washington front that came in rated 51 for pass rush against Philadelphia's 63. That gap showed up in the box score.

Through the air it was no contest either. Jalen Hurts went 22-of-30 for 185 yards and two touchdowns, calm and unhurried all day, while Marcus Mariota managed just 7-of-14 for 95. A.J. Brown was the outlet Hurts kept going back to, 9 catches for 95 yards, and Washington's secondary, rated 53 against Philadelphia's 57 coming in, never found an answer for him.

Offensive efficiency was the real story though. Philadelphia ran a positive expected points offence at plus-16.4, Washington sat at minus-6.4. That's a 22.8-point gap snap for snap, and it means Philadelphia wasn't just gaining yards, they were gaining them at the moments that counted. Add in Washington's lone turnover against Philadelphia's none, and you've got a team playing from behind in every phase that matters even while the scoreboard briefly said otherwise.

Form lines back it up too. Washington arrived on the back of a 1-4 stretch, conceding 27.8 a game and sitting at minus-9.8 average margin. Philadelphia had won two of their last five and were plus-4.6 on average. The one place Washington actually rated higher was special teams, 72

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 228 | Total Yards | **392** |
| 138 | Passing Yards | **185** |
| 90 | Rushing Yards | **207** |
| 21 | First Downs | **34** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -6.4 | Offensive EPA | **16.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Philadelphia Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Philadelphia Eagles by 8.3 vs the actual margin of 11 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 47, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Philadelphia Eagles's victory aligns with Craig Wrolstad's historical trend, Philadelphia Eagles have a 50% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.26 (edge -10.9%) — model probability 68.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 68% to see off Washington Commanders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 195 ELO points clear, 1631 to 1436. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Washington Commanders.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 8.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Philadelphia Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Washington Commanders took the most recent meeting 24-17 in 2025 Week 18.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 away, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Marcus Mariota starts under centre for Washington Commanders, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles, with Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Washington Commanders $4.00 and Philadelphia Eagles $1.26, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -7 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Washington Commanders 4 · Philadelphia Eagles 8 |
| Last meeting | Washington Commanders 24-17 (2025) |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 home |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Marcus Mariota · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Dan Quinn · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | Washington Commanders $4.00 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.26 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -7 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 4W–5L | 44% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6W–6L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Philadelphia Eagles hold a 6-point edge: 6W–6L (50%) vs Washington Commanders's 4W–5L (44%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 15.8pts |
| -9.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.6pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | W10 L · W11 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 W | 18.0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | W11 W · W12 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 W | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Philadelphia Eagles | 17 – 24 | Washington Commanders |
| 2025 | W16 | Washington Commanders | 18 – 29 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | CONF | Philadelphia Eagles | 55 – 23 | Washington Commanders |
| 2024 | W16 | Washington Commanders | 36 – 33 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | W11 | Philadelphia Eagles | 26 – 18 | Washington Commanders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FedExField. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 3/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.90 AI 22% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/11g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 25% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Terry McLaurin | WR | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 6/13g | 16/53g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Ben Sinnott | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Mariota | QB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | John Bates | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Johnson | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/13g | 2/6g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 9/10g | 0/4g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 15/12g | 8/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.90 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 7/7g | 4/3g | 42% | — | — |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Tanner McKee | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Eagles: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Bigsby

**Washington Commanders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Commanders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Washington Commanders 1436 · Philadelphia Eagles 1631 · ELO difference: 194 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Washington Commanders | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 48 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 58 | Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
| Backfield | 52 | 41 | Washington Commanders +11 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 63 | Philadelphia Eagles +12 |
| Secondary | 53 | 57 | Even |
| Special Teams | 72 | 58 | Washington Commanders +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-20 22:00 UTC (latest tip update)