# Tennessee Titans v Kansas City Chiefs — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 26 – 9 Kansas City Chiefs

_Tennessee Titans tower over Kansas City Chiefs._

Half time: 9 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 22% / Kansas City Chiefs 78% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 22 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: Chig Okonkwo (29'), Chimere Dike (35' Tipped ⚡), Tyjae Spears (48') · Kansas City Chiefs: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 78% | Lost |
| Tennessee Titans | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 26–9 Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 16 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model gave Kansas City a 78 per cent chance and pencilled in a win by 5.8 points. Tennessee won by 17. That's not a miss, that's the read falling over completely, and it's worth walking back through the game to see exactly where it went wrong.

On paper the gap made sense. Kansas City rated higher in the receiving corps, 55 to 48, higher in the secondary, higher on special teams, even fractionally ahead at pass rush. The one category Tennessee held was the backfield, 48 to 45, and as it turned out that was the category that mattered most.

The game was scoreless after the first quarter, so there was no early signal either way. Tennessee broke through with 1:43 left in the second when Chig Okonkwo scored to make it 8-6, and the Titans took a 9-6 buffer into the sheds. Not exactly the laugher the final margin suggests, at that point it still looked like the tight one the model expected. Then Chimere Dike scored with 10:35 left in the third to make it 15-6, and Tyjae Spears added another with 12 minutes still on the clock in the fourth to push it to 22-9. From there Kansas City had nothing left to answer with.

And Kansas City genuinely had nothing to answer with in the end zone. Zero touchdowns. Zero turnovers too, so it wasn't a case of Tennessee feasting off giveaways, this was a straight yardage and efficiency beatdown. 392 total yards to 177. 31 first downs to 13. Offensive EPA of plus-1.8 for Tennessee against minus-13.4 for Kansas City, which is about as clear a description of who ran the more efficient offence as you'll find on a stat sheet.

The backfield edge showed up exactly where the ratings said it might, just far bigger than advertised. Tennessee ran for 164 yards to Kansas City's 51, with Tony Pollard alone going for 102 on 21 carries. Cam Ward was tidy through the air, 21 of 28 for 228 and two touchdowns, while Elic Ayomanor topped the receiving charts with just 3 catches for 58 yards, which tells you the damage was spread around rather than funnelled through one target. Chris Oladokun went 11 of 16 for 111 for Kansas City, competent enough, but with only 51 rushing yards behind him and four sacks conceded, there wasn't much of a platform to work from.

Form coming in had both sides limping, Tennessee 1-4 in their last five, Kansas City the same, and neither average margin flattered them, Tennessee at minus-8.4, Kansas City at minus-3.2. Nothing there hinted at a home blowout either.

Credit where it's due, the total score prediction of 38 was close enough, the actual sat at 35. It was the margin and the winner that the model got badly wrong, built on ratings that had Kansas City nearly 300 points clear on the ELO scale. Tennessee's ground game and a four-sack pass rush tore that up in three quarters flat.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 0 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 26 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| **392** | Total Yards | 177 |
| **228** | Passing Yards | 126 |
| **164** | Rushing Yards | 51 |
| **31** | First Downs | 13 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **1.8** | Offensive EPA | -13.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Tennessee Titans defied the model's 78% prediction for Kansas City Chiefs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 17 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 35, within 3 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 11 points below Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Tennessee Titans bucked the trend, Kansas City Chiefs historically win 63% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.54 (edge +13.2%) — model probability 78.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 6 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Kansas City Chiefs here: 78% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Kansas City Chiefs sit 325 ELO points clear, 1578 to 1253.

Kansas City Chiefs own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Recent Form. The margin model has Kansas City Chiefs by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Kansas City Chiefs to win, not to win big.

Tennessee Titans have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Tennessee Titans took the most recent meeting 26-9 in 2025 Week 16.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, Gardner Minshew for Kansas City Chiefs, with Brian Callahan and Andy Reid calling the shots.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Tennessee Titans $2.54 and Kansas City Chiefs $1.54, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tennessee Titans 8 · Kansas City Chiefs 4 |
| Last meeting | Tennessee Titans 26-9 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 1-7 away |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · Gardner Minshew |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · Andy Reid |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $2.54 · Kansas City Chiefs $1.54 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Kansas City Chiefs

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 7W–13L | 35% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12W–7L | 63% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Kansas City Chiefs have won 12 of 19 games (63%), significantly stronger than Tennessee Titans's 7 from 20 (35%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.0pts | Avg Score | 18.6pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W14 W · W15 L | 19.0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | W11 L · W12 W · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L | 18.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tennessee Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Tennessee Titans | 26 – 9 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2022 | W9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 20 – 17 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2021 | W7 | Tennessee Titans | 27 – 3 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2019 | DIV | Kansas City Chiefs | 35 – 24 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2019 | W10 | Tennessee Titans | 35 – 32 | Kansas City Chiefs |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 24% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/19g | 14% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/29g | 6% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kalel Mullings | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (2·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chris Oladokun | QB | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gardner Minshew | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Kelce 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Isiah Pacheco — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- ⚡ Xavier Worthy — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Chiefs: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Tennessee Titans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Chimere Dike 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Titans: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Okonkwo, T.Spears

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1253 · Kansas City Chiefs 1578 · ELO difference: 325 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | Kansas City Chiefs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 44 | 43 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 55 | Kansas City Chiefs +7 |
| Backfield | 48 | 45 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 48 | 50 | Even |
| Special Teams | 55 | 56 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Kansas City Chiefs predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)