# Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 38 – 37 Los Angeles Rams

_Seattle Seahawks fight back to soar past Los Angeles Rams._

Half time: 7 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 47% / Los Angeles Rams 53% · Lumen Field · Fri, 19 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (8'), Walker (32'), Rashid Shaheed (52'), AJ Barner (54'), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (57' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Rams: Terrance Ferguson (27'), Blake Corum (39' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (47' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 53% | Lost |
| Seattle Seahawks | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Dec 2025, 12:15 pm_

Seattle Seahawks 38–37 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 16 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle Seahawks beat the Los Angeles Rams 38-37 at Lumen Field, in overtime, one score in it from start to finish. Look at the yardage though and it reads like a different result: Los Angeles Rams put up 581 total yards to Seattle's 441, a gap of 140. Seattle won the game and lost the arm-wrestle that usually decides it.

The shape of it was there from the first quarter. Zach Charbonnet got Seattle on the board early, but Los Angeles Rams led 13-7 at the break and were still up 23-14 through three quarters. Seattle clawed it back to 30-30 by the end of regulation, and needed overtime, and a Jaxon Smith-Njigba touchdown, to finally get out the other side 38-37. Puka Nacua scored twice in that stretch, including one in overtime, and the Rams simply would not go away.

The stat sheet explains why it was that close a rope. Los Angeles Rams ran 4 sacks on Seattle's line to Seattle's zero, and Seattle coughed up three turnovers to none. Offensive EPA had the Rams at 21.5 against Seattle's 6.5, a 14.9-point gap in pure efficiency. On raw numbers this was not a game Seattle should have won, and for long stretches it looked like they wouldn't.

What kept them in it was the ground game. Seattle ran for 171 yards, almost 30 percent of their total output, with Kenneth Walker III doing the heavy lifting: 100 yards on just 11 carries and a touchdown. Sam Darnold's night through the air was mixed, 22 from 34 for 270 yards, two touchdowns, but two picks as well, part of that turnover column that should have cost Seattle the game outright.

Matthew Stafford had the better numbers by any measure, 29 of 49 for 457 yards and three touchdowns, and Puka Nacua was the best player on the field regardless of result: 12 catches for 225 yards and two scores. Blake Corum and Terrance Ferguson chipped in touchdowns of their own. Los Angeles Rams did almost everything you'd want on offence and still walked away with nothing to show for it.

The pre-match positional read had the Rams stronger at quarterback, 63 to 45, and in the backfield, 72 to 50, and the box score backs that up. Seattle's edge was special teams, 95 to 60, and in a game this tight that gap mattered more than anyone probably expected walking in. Form-wise the Rams came in hotter on paper too, averaging 33.8 points a game to Seattle's 26, so a shootout was on the cards even if the final margin wasn't.

Alphr's model had Seattle up by 1.8 points before kick-off, and the Rams favoured at 53 percent to win. The margin call was close to perfect, off by less than a point on a final gap of 1. The total was the miss: 39 points projected, 75 delivered, 36 points higher than expected. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one had both sides working overtime to prove it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 38 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 441 | Total Yards | **581** |
| 270 | Passing Yards | **457** |
| **171** | Rushing Yards | 124 |
| 31 | First Downs | **41** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| 6.5 | Offensive EPA | **21.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Seattle Seahawks defied the model's 53% prediction for Los Angeles Rams, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Seattle Seahawks by 1.8 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 75 points came in 36 points higher than the predicted 39. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 75 points was 30 points above Brad Allen's career average of 45. Seattle Seahawks's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $2.02 (edge +3.6%) — model probability 53.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 2 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. The model can't split them, landing on Los Angeles Rams at 53%.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Quarterback. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Los Angeles Rams have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 the Conference Championship.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Mike Macdonald and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.82 and Los Angeles Rams $2.02, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -1.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 5 · Los Angeles Rams 7 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 31-27 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Sean McVay |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.82 · Los Angeles Rams $2.02 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -1.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 7W–6L | 54% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5W–4L | 56% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Brad Allen, Seattle Seahawks 7W–6L (54%) and Los Angeles Rams 5W–4L (56%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 33.8pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.2pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W11 L · W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W | 26.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W11 W · W12 W · W13 L · W14 W · W15 W | 33.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CONF | Seattle Seahawks | 31 – 27 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W16 | Seattle Seahawks | 38 – 37 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W11 | Los Angeles Rams | 21 – 19 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W18 | Los Angeles Rams | 25 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W9 | Seattle Seahawks | 20 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 13/24g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 11/22g | 40% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/15g | 26% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 13/28g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 13 in 14g | 11/10g (2·1·0·1·2·1·0·1·1·2) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 54% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 54' |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 2/21g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 54% · no TD
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q4, Q5**
- ⚡ Colby Parkinson — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Blake Corum — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Rams: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Ferguson

**Seattle Seahawks** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q5**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Seahawks: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: Z.Charbonnet, R.Shaheed, A.Barner

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Los Angeles Rams hold the ELO advantage (1680 vs 1663), but the market favours Seattle Seahawks (@1.82). The model sides with ELO, Los Angeles Rams predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1663 · Los Angeles Rams 1680 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 63 | Los Angeles Rams +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 60 | Even |
| Backfield | 50 | 72 | Los Angeles Rams +22 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 53 | Seattle Seahawks +6 |
| Secondary | 66 | 65 | Even |
| Special Teams | 95 | 60 | Seattle Seahawks +35 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-19 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)