# New York Giants v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Giants 13 – 16 Minnesota Vikings

_Minnesota Vikings hold off a fast-finishing New York Giants._

Half time: 10 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Giants 12% / Minnesota Vikings 88% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 22 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Giants: Tyler Nubin (30') · Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy (28')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 88% | Won |
| New York Giants | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

New York Giants 13–16 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 16 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Minnesota Vikings 16, New York Giants 13. Three points, and if you stopped there you'd think it was a coin flip. Look at the yardage and it stops looking like one: 274 to 161, and the Giants never found the end zone all afternoon.

That gap tells the real story. Minnesota moved the ball at will, 23 first downs to New York's 9, and their offence ran +13.1 expected points clear of the Giants' on a per-snap basis. New York's offensive EPA sat at minus 18.2. You don't need a model to tell you what that means. It means the Giants were treading water most of the day and the scoreboard just hadn't caught up yet.

It nearly didn't. Minnesota led 3-0 after the first quarter, then J.J. McCarthy's touchdown with 2:09 left in the second stretched it to 12-3. New York clawed back through Tyrone Tracy... sorry, through T.Nubin's score with 25 seconds left in the half, and went into the break down just 13-10. From there the game went cold. Nothing changed across the third quarter, 13-10 at the end of it too, before New York found three more and Minnesota answered with three of their own to close it out 16-13. A one-score margin that held for the better part of three quarters, built on a talent gap that should have been bigger.

Jaxson Dart's night summed up the problem: 7 of 13 for just 33 yards passing, with an interception. McCarthy, by contrast, went 9 of 14 for 108 and also threw a pick, but he had the receiving corps to make it count. Justin Jefferson did the damage, 6 catches for 85 yards, and Aaron Jones ground out 85 yards on 21 carries to lead all rushers. New York actually won the ground game on paper, 128 to 114, but with next to nothing happening through the air, that rushing edge was never enough to build a finish on.

Minnesota's pass rush got home five times to New York's four, and the turnover count, 2 to 1 in the Giants' favour on paper, still swung the wrong way when it mattered. Efficiency and situational execution won this one, not the raw stat sheet.

Pre-match, the numbers had Minnesota clear favourites at 88 percent, with a projected margin of 8.6 off ratings of 1517 to 1316. The actual result landed inside that, a 3-point win instead of 8.6, so the model's read on who would win was well and truly on the money even if the margin came in tighter than expected. The total was the bigger miss: 46 points forecast, 29 delivered, a 17-point undershoot that says both defences, and New York's stalled offence in particular, had more to say about the pace of this game than anyone predicted.

Minnesota arrived on a two-game winning run, New York on five straight losses, and nothing about Sunday broke that pattern. The Giants matched them in the trenches and lost everywhere else that counts.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Giants | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 161 | Total Yards | **274** |
| 33 | Passing Yards | **160** |
| **128** | Rushing Yards | 114 |
| 9 | First Downs | **23** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| -18.2 | Offensive EPA | **-5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Minnesota Vikings to win at 88% probability. The predicted margin of 8.6 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 29 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 23 points below Alex Moore's career average of 52. Despite Alex Moore's 67% career home-team win rate, the away side Minnesota Vikings prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.68 (edge +28.8%) — model probability 88.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Minnesota Vikings here: 88% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Minnesota Vikings sit 201 ELO points clear, 1517 to 1316. Form leans Minnesota Vikings' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for New York Giants.

Minnesota Vikings own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 46. Minnesota Vikings to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Minnesota Vikings have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Minnesota Vikings took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2025 Week 16.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Jaxson Dart starts under centre for New York Giants, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota Vikings, with Brian Daboll and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

The market has Minnesota Vikings favourites, New York Giants $2.24 and Minnesota Vikings $1.68, with the spread at Minnesota Vikings -2.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Giants 3 · Minnesota Vikings 9 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 16-13 (2025) |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 3-5 home |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-4 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jaxson Dart · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Brian Daboll · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | New York Giants $2.24 · Minnesota Vikings $1.68 |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 52.1 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, New York Giants 0W–0L (0%) and Minnesota Vikings 0W–0L (0%). Games average 52.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for New York Giants).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Giants | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 29.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | W10 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W15 L | 20.6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W14 W · W15 W | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | New York Giants | 13 – 16 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W1 | New York Giants | 6 – 28 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2022 | WC | Minnesota Vikings | 24 – 31 | New York Giants |
| 2022 | W16 | Minnesota Vikings | 27 – 24 | New York Giants |
| 2019 | W5 | New York Giants | 10 – 28 | Minnesota Vikings |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/25g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 7/20g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 12/51g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Chris Manhertz | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | C.J. Ham | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zavier Scott | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Max Brosmer | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.McCarthy

**New York Giants** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxson Dart 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Devin Singletary — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Nubin

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Giants 1316 · Minnesota Vikings 1517 · ELO difference: 201 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Giants | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 61 | 35 | New York Giants +26 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 49 | New York Giants +11 |
| Backfield | 66 | 47 | New York Giants +19 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 55 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Secondary | 56 | 49 | New York Giants +7 |
| Special Teams | 46 | 58 | Minnesota Vikings +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Giants |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Minnesota Vikings predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)