# New Orleans Saints v New York Jets — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New Orleans Saints 29 – 6 New York Jets

_New Orleans Saints put New York Jets to the sword._

Half time: 9 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New Orleans Saints 87% / New York Jets 13% · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Mon, 22 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (45' Tipped ⚡), Chris Olave (58' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 87% | Won |
| New York Jets | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.1 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Orleans Saints vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

New Orleans Saints 29–6 New York Jets in NFL Week 16 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New York Jets had a foothold in this one for exactly one quarter. It was 3-3 after the first at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and their pass rush had something to do with it, sacking Tyler Shough three times on the night. That period was as good as it got.

Brady Cook went 22 of 35 for 188 yards with an interception, working behind an offensive line that couldn't create much room for Breece Hall, who still managed 54 yards on 16 carries, the one genuine bright spot in a rushing attack that finished with just 64 yards as a team. Beyond Hall, not much clicked. The Jets turned the ball over twice, got outgained by 178 yards and never found the end zone all game. Six points from field goals was the entirety of their scoreboard contribution.

New Orleans Saints won it 29-6, and by the final whistle it wasn't close. Chris Olave did the damage almost single-handedly: two touchdowns among his 10 catches for 148 yards, comfortably the game's leading receiver. Shough finished 32 of 49 for 308 yards and a score, with the Saints' passing game totalling 346 yards on the night against a Saints total offence of 430 yards to the Jets' 252.

The half-time score, 9-6, made it look tight. It wasn't, not really. New Orleans led from the second quarter on and never gave it back. The third quarter is where the game turned: Olave's first touchdown, with 47 seconds left in the period, made it 15-6, and the Saints took a 16-6 buffer into the fourth. His second touchdown, with two minutes remaining, made it 28-6 and turned a comfortable lead into a rout.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard showed. New Orleans won first downs 40 to 17, won the turnover battle 1 to 2 in its favour, and got to the quarterback eight times against three. Offensive EPA put a number on how lopsided it was: New Orleans at minus 0.5, the Jets at minus 22.5. That gap says more about how one-sided the game felt snap to snap than the final margin does.

The pre-match numbers flagged this kind of mismatch well before kickoff. Quarterback play was rated 47 for New Orleans against just 11 for New York, about as stark a gap as these ratings produce. The Saints' secondary also graded out well clear, 59 to 46, which tracks with a Jets passing game that stalled at 188 yards and a pick. New York's pass r

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 3 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 29 |
| New York Jets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| **430** | Total Yards | 252 |
| **346** | Passing Yards | 188 |
| **84** | Rushing Yards | 64 |
| **40** | First Downs | 17 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **8** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| **-0.5** | Offensive EPA | -22.5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New Orleans Saints to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 23 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 35, within 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 39.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 11 points below Clay Martin's career average of 46. New Orleans Saints's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, New Orleans Saints have a 50% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.34 (edge +12.1%) — model probability 87.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New Orleans Saints by 7 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New Orleans Saints here: 87% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New Orleans Saints sit 36 ELO points clear, 1366 to 1330. Form leans New Orleans Saints' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Jets.

New Orleans Saints own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has New Orleans Saints by 7.1, with the two sides combining for about 38. New Orleans Saints to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New Orleans Saints have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and New Orleans Saints took the most recent meeting 29-6 in 2025 Week 16.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Tyler Shough starts under centre for New Orleans Saints, Brady Cook for New York Jets, with Kellen Moore and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

The market has New Orleans Saints favourites, New Orleans Saints $1.34 and New York Jets $3.40, with the spread at New Orleans Saints -6.5 and the total at 39.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | New Orleans Saints 5 · New York Jets 2 |
| Last meeting | New Orleans Saints 29-6 (2025) |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyler Shough · Brady Cook |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Aaron Glenn |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $1.34 · New York Jets $3.40 |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -6.5 · total 39.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 2W–2L | 50% |
| New York Jets | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, New Orleans Saints have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 2 from 6 (33%). Small sample (4 games for New Orleans Saints).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | -15.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W10 W · W12 L · W13 L · W14 W · W15 W | 17.6 |
| New York Jets | W11 L · W12 L · W13 W · W14 L · W15 L | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New Orleans Saints lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | New Orleans Saints | 29 – 6 | New York Jets |
| 2021 | W14 | New York Jets | 9 – 30 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2017 | W15 | New Orleans Saints | 31 – 19 | New York Jets |
| 2013 | W9 | New York Jets | 26 – 20 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2009 | W4 | New Orleans Saints | 24 – 10 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/24g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 45' 58' |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/35g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 25% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 16% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jack Stoll | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 24/57g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Audric Estimé | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dante Pettis | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Hull | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Foster Moreau | TE | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/19g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Tipton | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 18% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.00 AI 16% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Johnson | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brady Cook | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jelani Woods | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Stone Smartt | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Adonai Mitchell 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 18% · no TD
- ⚡ Isaiah Davis — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 16% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**New Orleans Saints** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Shough — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 16% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1366 · New York Jets 1330 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of New Orleans Saints

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 11 | New Orleans Saints +36 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 45 | New Orleans Saints +6 |
| Backfield | 49 | 44 | New Orleans Saints +5 |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 59 | 46 | New Orleans Saints +13 |
| Special Teams | 53 | 54 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Jets |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — New Orleans Saints predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)