# Miami Dolphins v Cincinnati Bengals — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Miami Dolphins 21 – 45 Cincinnati Bengals

_Cincinnati Bengals claw past Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 14 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Miami Dolphins 16% / Cincinnati Bengals 84% · Hard Rock Stadium · Mon, 22 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Miami Dolphins: De'Von Achane (13' Tipped ⚡), Malik Washington (28'), Jaylen Wright (57') · Cincinnati Bengals: Tee Higgins (11' Tipped ⚡), Samaje Perine (29'), Chase Brown (36' Tipped ⚡), Chase Brown (37' Tipped ⚡), Chase Brown (43' Tipped ⚡), Mike Gesicki (47')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 84% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Miami Dolphins 21–45 Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 16 at Hard Rock Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Miami Dolphins did plenty right for a half. They matched Cincinnati Bengals score for score through the first quarter, De'Von Achane answering Tee Higgins' opening touchdown to make it 7-7, and Malik Washington's score with 2:30 left in the second put them up 13-10. For a side with the better backfield rating coming in, 70 to Cincinnati's 51, the ground game was doing its job. Achane finished with 81 yards on 15 carries, and Miami actually out-rushed Cincinnati 129 to 105 on the day.

Then it came apart. Samaje Perine's touchdown with 1:28 left in the half handed the lead back to Cincinnati Bengals at the break, 17-14, and that was the last time this game looked close. Three turnovers from Miami Dolphins, against zero from Cincinnati, turned a tight contest into an avalanche, and Chase Brown made them pay for it personally, scoring three times in the third quarter alone as Cincinnati piled on 21 unanswered points to go from 17-14 to 38-14.

By the finish it was 45-21, a 24-point beating that the second half made look inevitable even if the first didn't. Mike Gesicki added a fourth Cincinnati touchdown early in the fourth, and Jaylen Wright's late score for Miami was tidy-up work against a game that was long gone.

The numbers back up what the scoreboard says. Cincinnati Bengals outgained Miami Dolphins 418 yards to 389 and posted an offensive EPA of plus 22.7 against Miami's flat 0, which is about as clean a measure as you'll get of who was actually moving the ball with purpose. Cincinnati also picked up 38 first downs to Miami's 33 and didn't turn the ball over once, while Miami's three giveaways kept handing Cincinnati the short field they needed.

Through the air, Joe Burrow was excellent: 25 of 32 for 309 yards and four touchdowns, with Ja'Marr Chase doing the heavy lifting on the receiving end, 9 catches for 109 yards. Quinn Ewers threw for 260 yards on 20 of 30 but coughed up two interceptions, and against a Miami pass rush that only managed two sacks, Cincinnati's protection held up well enough to let Burrow work.

The positional read before kickoff had Cincinnati with the edge at quarterback, 54 to 42, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the passing numbers and in who protected the football. Miami's rest edge, six days to Cincinnati's seven, and their superior recent form, four wins from five against Cincinnati's one, didn't count for much once the turnovers started piling up.

Alphr's model had Cincinnati Bengals as 84 per cent favourites, so the winner was never in doubt. The margin was the miss: a projected 0.2-point Miami edge turned into a 24-point Cincinnati rout, and the combined total of 66 points ran 17 clear of the 49 forecast.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 45 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 389 | Total Yards | **418** |
| 260 | Passing Yards | **313** |
| **129** | Rushing Yards | 105 |
| 33 | First Downs | **38** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| 0 | Offensive EPA | **22.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cincinnati Bengals to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 66 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 49. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 20 points above John Hussey's career average of 46. Cincinnati Bengals bucked the trend, Miami Dolphins historically win 69% of games under John Hussey, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite John Hussey's 66% career home-team win rate, the away side Cincinnati Bengals prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.49 (edge +16.8%) — model probability 84.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 0 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cincinnati Bengals here: 84% to see off Miami Dolphins. The ratings say otherwise: Miami Dolphins sit 53 ELO points clear, 1475 to 1422, so the model is backing Cincinnati Bengals against the ratings gap. Form leans Miami Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Cincinnati Bengals.

On paper Miami Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The model still sides with Cincinnati Bengals, which says Quarterback carry the most weight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Cincinnati Bengals to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Cincinnati Bengals taking the most recent 45-21 in 2025 Week 16.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 away, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Quinn Ewers starts under centre for Miami Dolphins, Joe Burrow for Cincinnati Bengals, with Mike McDaniel and Zac Taylor calling the shots.

The market has Cincinnati Bengals favourites, Miami Dolphins $2.70 and Cincinnati Bengals $1.49, with the spread at Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Miami Dolphins 6 · Cincinnati Bengals 6 |
| Last meeting | Cincinnati Bengals 45-21 (2025) |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 5-4 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 away |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Quinn Ewers · Joe Burrow |
| Head coaches | Mike McDaniel · Zac Taylor |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $2.70 · Cincinnati Bengals $1.49 |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Miami Dolphins

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 9W–4L | 69% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7W–5L | 58% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

Miami Dolphins hold a 11-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Cincinnati Bengals's 7W–5L (58%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 16.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.4pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | -7.8pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W10 W · W11 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 L | 23.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | W11 L · W12 L · W13 W · W14 L · W15 L | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cincinnati Bengals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Miami Dolphins | 21 – 45 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2022 | W4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 27 – 15 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2020 | W13 | Miami Dolphins | 19 – 7 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | W16 | Miami Dolphins | 38 – 35 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2018 | W5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 27 – 17 | Miami Dolphins |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 21/22g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.56 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| – | Darren Waller | TE | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/6g | 3/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 11/37g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 7% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Alec Ingold | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/19g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dee Eskridge | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Quinn Ewers | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Theo Wease Jr. | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 37' 43' |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Tinsley | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 11/39g | 10% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Cam Grandy | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Burrow | QB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q3, Q3, Q3**
- ⚡ Tee Higgins — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Bengals: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Perine, M.Gesicki

**Miami Dolphins** (3 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Darren Waller — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Washington, J.Wright

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Miami Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1475 vs 1422), but the market favours Cincinnati Bengals (@1.49). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1475 · Cincinnati Bengals 1422 · ELO difference: 53 in favour of Miami Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 54 | Cincinnati Bengals +12 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 52 | Even |
| Backfield | 70 | 51 | Miami Dolphins +19 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 47 | Miami Dolphins +12 |
| Secondary | 56 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 67 | 67 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Cincinnati Bengals favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)