# Houston Texans v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Houston Texans 23 – 21 Las Vegas Raiders

_Houston Texans rope in a gallant Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 13 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Houston Texans 95% / Las Vegas Raiders 5% · NRG Stadium · Mon, 22 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Houston Texans: Stingley (5'), Dalton Schultz (53' Tipped ⚡) · Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers (18' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Jeanty (36' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Jeanty (55' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 95% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 25.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Houston Texans 23–21 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 16 at NRG Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Zero. That's how many turnovers Houston Texans coughed up, and it's the reason they're walking out of NRG Stadium 23-21 winners despite getting out-gained by 76 yards and out-efficiencied by more than ten points of expected value. Las Vegas Raiders had the ball more often, moved it better, and still lost, because the one time it mattered they gave it away and Houston Texans didn't.

The scoreboard tells a tighter story than the stat sheet. Houston Texans led 7-0 after the first quarter on a Derek Stingley touchdown, took a 13-7 edge into the break, then had to hold on as Las Vegas Raiders clawed level at 13-13 through the third on an Ashton Jeanty score. Dalton Schultz put Houston Texans back in front with 7:44 left, 22-14, before Jeanty's second touchdown with 5:34 to go dragged it back to a one-score margin that never actually flipped again.

Look at the yardage and you'd think Las Vegas Raiders won this. 346 total yards to 270, 145 rushing yards to 83, and an offensive EPA of -2.3 against Houston Texans' woeful -13.1. Geno Smith was sharp too, 16 of 23 for 201 yards with two touchdowns. Ashton Jeanty was the best player on the field by a distance, 128 yards on 24 carries plus a touchdown catch, the clear focal point of everything Las Vegas Raiders tried to do.

None of it mattered because of two numbers: turnovers and sacks. Houston Texans didn't give the ball away once. Las Vegas Raiders did, and Houston Texans's pass rush got home three times to nil, the kind of pressure that turns a clean, efficient offensive night into a night where the only column that counts goes the other way.

C.J. Stroud wasn't spectacular, 23 of 35 for 187 yards and a single touchdown, but he didn't need to be. That's the gap between Houston Texans's quarterback rating of 70 coming in against Las Vegas Raiders' 25, and it showed up less in yardage than in just not making the mistake that costs you the game.

The form lines read exactly as billed. Houston Texans arrived 5-0 in their last five, averaging 23.8 points scored and only 15.6 conceded. Las Vegas Raiders came in 0-5, averaging 11.4 scored and 28.6 conceded, an average margin of minus 17.2. On paper this wasn't close, and Alphr's model had Houston Texans at 95 percent to win with a projected margin of 25.1 points.

That margin call is where the model got humbled. It nailed the winner and pegged the total almost perfectly, 44 points projected against 44 actual. But it never saw a one-score finish coming, not with Las Vegas Raiders down 17.2 on average margin over their last five. Ashton Jeanty and a Raiders offense that actually turned up made sure of that.

Houston Texans win it 23-21, ugly on the stat sheet, clean on the only two numbers that decided it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 7 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Houston Texans | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 270 | Total Yards | **346** |
| 187 | Passing Yards | **201** |
| 83 | Rushing Yards | **145** |
| **24** | First Downs | 19 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| -13.1 | Offensive EPA | **-2.3** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Houston Texans to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 25.1 but the actual margin was 2 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 39.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Scott Novak's career average of 45. Houston Texans's victory aligns with Scott Novak's historical trend, Houston Texans have a 44% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.06 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 94.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 25 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Houston Texans here: 95% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Houston Texans sit 338 ELO points clear, 1628 to 1290. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Houston Texans own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Houston Texans by 25.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Houston Texans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Houston Texans have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 23-21 in 2025 Week 16.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

C.J. Stroud starts under centre for Houston Texans, Geno Smith for Las Vegas Raiders, with DeMeco Ryans and Pete Carroll calling the shots.

The market has Houston Texans favourites, Houston Texans $1.06 and Las Vegas Raiders $10.00, with the spread at Houston Texans -14.5 and the total at 39.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Houston Texans 7 · Las Vegas Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 23-21 (2025) |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 home |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | C.J. Stroud · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | DeMeco Ryans · Pete Carroll |
| Market | Houston Texans $1.06 · Las Vegas Raiders $10.00 |
| Spread | Houston Texans -14.5 · total 39.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Houston Texans

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 4W–5L | 44% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 45.4 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

Houston Texans hold a 11-point edge: 4W–5L (44%) vs Las Vegas Raiders's 2W–4L (33%). Small sample (6 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Houston Texans | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 23.8pts | Avg Score | 11.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 28.6pts |
| 8.2pts | Avg Margin | -17.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W | 23.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L | 11.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Houston Texans | 23 – 21 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2022 | W7 | Las Vegas Raiders | 38 – 20 | Houston Texans |
| 2019 | W8 | Houston Texans | 27 – 24 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2016 | W18 | Houston Texans | 27 – 14 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2016 | W11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 27 – 20 | Houston Texans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at NRG Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 20/34g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 2/8g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 7/25g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/29g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | British Brooks | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/23g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cade Stover | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jawhar Jordan | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 55' |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 25% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 5 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Carter Runyon | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Raiders: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

**Houston Texans** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jawhar Jordan 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 1 · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Schultz — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Jayden Higgins — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Stingley

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Houston Texans 1628 · Las Vegas Raiders 1290 · ELO difference: 338 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Houston Texans | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 70 | 25 | Houston Texans +45 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 47 | Houston Texans +9 |
| Backfield | 59 | 35 | Houston Texans +24 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 68 | 51 | Houston Texans +17 |
| Special Teams | 74 | 49 | Houston Texans +25 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Houston Texans |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 95%** — Houston Texans predicted to win by 25 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)