# Detroit Lions v Pittsburgh Steelers — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Detroit Lions 24 – 29 Pittsburgh Steelers

_Pittsburgh Steelers steamroll a gallant Detroit Lions._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Detroit Lions 78% / Pittsburgh Steelers 22% · Ford Field · Mon, 22 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Detroit Lions: Isaac TeSlaa (28'), Kalif Raymond (52'), Jahmyr Gibbs (56' Tipped ⚡) · Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Gainwell (30'), Jaylen Warren (48' Tipped ⚡), Jaylen Warren (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 78% | Lost |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.5 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Detroit Lions 24–29 Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 16 at Ford Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten-all at the break, and Ford Field had every right to think it had a game on its hands. Detroit put up the last score before half, Isaac TeSlaa getting the Lions in front 9-3, only for Kenny Gainwell to answer with eleven seconds left and level it at ten. Even, and anyone's game.

The second half told a different story, and Pittsburgh told it. Detroit's lead never returned. The Steelers nudged ahead 12-10 through the third quarter, then broke it open in the fourth. Jaylen Warren scored twice more, either side of a Kalif Raymond touchdown that briefly kept Detroit within six. Jahmyr Gibbs got the Lions to 23-29 with four minutes left, but there was no third act. Final score, Pittsburgh Steelers 29, Detroit Lions 24.

Warren was the difference maker with the ball in his hands. Two touchdowns, 143 yards on just 14 carries, and he headlined a rushing performance that read 230 yards for Pittsburgh against a Lions total of 15. Fifteen. Detroit had no answer for the ground game, and Pittsburgh leaned on it for 46 percent of its total offence.

Detroit won plenty of the surface level numbers. Forty first downs to 36, zero turnovers to Pittsburgh's one, and Jared Goff threw for 364 yards and three touchdowns on 34 of 54 passing. Aaron Rodgers was tidier by comparison, 27 of 41 for 266 and a single score, with Gainwell his top target on 5 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown of his own. None of it mattered as much as the rushing column. Pittsburgh outgained Detroit 496 to 379 overall and were the more efficient side snap for snap, offensive EPA of 19.8 to Detroit's 6.9. That gap of nearly 13 points lines up neatly with how the fourth quarter actually played out.

The ledger evens out a little when you look at pressure. Pittsburgh's pass rush got home three times, Detroit's twice, hardly a gulf, but the Steelers made their pressure count late when it mattered.

The pre-match numbers had Detroit favoured, and reasonably so. Backfield ratings were close, 72 to 73 in Pittsburgh's favour, but Detroit held the edge almost everywhere else: quarterback 59 to 47, receiving corps 60 to 52, pass rush 57 to 50, secondary 66 to 55, special teams 68 to 53. Alphr's model had Detroit's Elo at 1622 against Pittsburgh's 1534, translating to a 78 percent chance of a Lions win, a projected margin of 3.5 points and a combined total of 50.

Form lines told a slightly different tale. Pittsburgh arrived on three wins from their last five to Detroit's two, and their average margin over that stretch was positive, 3.6 points, while Detroit's sat flat at zero. Detroit had the extra day's rest, seven to six, but it was Pittsburgh's WLLWW form line that carried more weight on the night.

In the end, Pittsburgh's 29-24 win was a genuine upset against the model's expectations, though not an outrageous one. The actual margin of five points wasn't far off the predicted 3.5, and the combined total of 53 sat within three points of the forecast 50. The number the model didn't fully capture was Warren's 143 yards and the 230 Pittsburgh put up as a team. Detroit moved the ball and the chains all night, but it was the Steelers who found the end z

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 379 | Total Yards | **496** |
| **364** | Passing Yards | 266 |
| 15 | Rushing Yards | **230** |
| **40** | First Downs | 36 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 6.9 | Offensive EPA | **19.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Pittsburgh Steelers defied the model's 78% prediction for Detroit Lions, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.5 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 53, within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 53 points was 8 points above Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Pittsburgh Steelers's victory aligns with Carl Cheffers's historical trend, Pittsburgh Steelers have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Carl Cheffers's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Pittsburgh Steelers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.24 (edge -3.4%) — model probability 77.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 4 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Detroit Lions here: 78% to see off Pittsburgh Steelers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Detroit Lions sit 87 ELO points clear, 1622 to 1534. Form leans Pittsburgh Steelers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Detroit Lions.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Detroit Lions by 3.5, with the two sides combining for about 50. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Detroit Lions to win, not to win big.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 6 of the last 7 between these two, and Pittsburgh Steelers took the most recent meeting 29-24 in 2025 Week 16.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 4-4 away, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Jared Goff starts under centre for Detroit Lions, Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh Steelers, with Dan Campbell and Mike Tomlin calling the shots.

The market has Detroit Lions favourites, Detroit Lions $1.24 and Pittsburgh Steelers $4.30, with the spread at Detroit Lions -7.5 and the total at 52.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Detroit Lions 0 · Pittsburgh Steelers 6 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 29-24 (2025) |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-3 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 4-4 away |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Aaron Rodgers |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Mike Tomlin |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.24 · Pittsburgh Steelers $4.30 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Pittsburgh Steelers

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 6W–8L | 43% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 12W–6L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Pittsburgh Steelers have won 12 of 18 games (67%), significantly stronger than Detroit Lions's 6 from 14 (43%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 29.0pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 29.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W11 L · W12 W · W13 L · W14 W · W15 L | 29.0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W11 W · W12 L · W13 L · W14 W · W15 W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Detroit Lions | 24 – 29 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2021 | W10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 – 16 | Detroit Lions |
| 2017 | W8 | Detroit Lions | 15 – 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2013 | W11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 37 – 27 | Detroit Lions |
| 2009 | W5 | Detroit Lions | 20 – 28 | Pittsburgh Steelers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 16 in 14g | 12/10g (1·0·2·0·3·0·3·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 31/26g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.32 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.20 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 11 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 25/42g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 18/28g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.92 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 10/26g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 40% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 33% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/37g | 8% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Anthony Firkser | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/45g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Shane Zylstra | TE | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Tom Kennedy | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 0/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' 54' |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 2/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 3/8g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Scott Miller | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ DK Metcalf — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Gainwell

**Detroit Lions** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 1 pass) · model 60% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ David Montgomery 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Jameson Williams — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: I.TeSlaa, K.Raymond

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1622 · Pittsburgh Steelers 1534 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | Pittsburgh Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 47 | Detroit Lions +12 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 52 | Detroit Lions +8 |
| Backfield | 72 | 73 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 50 | Detroit Lions +7 |
| Secondary | 66 | 55 | Detroit Lions +11 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 53 | Detroit Lions +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)