# Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 20 – 34 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Jacksonville Jaguars claw past Denver Broncos._

Half time: 10 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 66% / Jacksonville Jaguars 34% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 22 Dec, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton (18' Tipped ⚡), RJ Harvey (32' Tipped ⚡) · Jacksonville Jaguars: Parker Washington (15'), Brenton Strange (26'), Trevor Lawrence (38'), Travis Etienne (41' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 66% | Lost |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 08:05 am_

Denver Broncos 20–34 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 16 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight-point-one. That's the gap in expected points added between Jacksonville and Denver, Jaguars at plus-6, Broncos at minus-2.1, and it's the number that explains how a team that got outgained by 93 yards still walked out of Empower Field at Mile High with a 34-20 win.

Because on paper this should have been close. Denver piled up 453 total yards to Jacksonville's 360, won the first-down count 33-31, and even out-rushed the Jaguars 101 to 81. None of it mattered much once you factor in the two turnovers Denver coughed up against zero from Jacksonville. Yards without the ball are just yards.

The scoreboard tells the story of a game that never really let Denver in front. Parker Washington opened it with a touchdown in the last minute of the first quarter, and Jacksonville led 7-0 at the break of that period. Courtland Sutton hauled Denver level-ish with a score to make it 6-7, but Brenton Strange answered before halftime and the Jaguars took a 17-10 lead into the break. RJ Harvey got the Broncos within one at 16-17 early in the third, but that was as close as it got. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne scored on consecutive Jacksonville drives inside four minutes of that same quarter, and by the end of the third it was 17-31. Denver never had an answer for that stretch.

Through the air, Bo Nix actually threw for more yards than Trevor Lawrence, 352 to 279, but he needed 47 attempts to get there, completing 28, with one touchdown and one interception. Lawrence was sharper with less volume: 23 of 36 for three touchdowns and no picks. That's the difference between a quarterback managing a lead and one trying to force one, and it lines up with the pre-match ratings that had Jacksonville's quarterback spot rated above Denver's, 73 to 66.

Parker Washington was the standout on the day, six catches for 145 yards and a touchdown, doing plenty of the damage that turned this from a shootout into a rout. RJ Harvey led all rushers with 50 yards on just seven carries and a score, proof Denver's run game had something going, it just never got enough of the ball while Denver was busy trying to claw back a deficit through the air.

Denver's pass rush did its job, five sacks to Jacksonville's one, and on another day that pressure wins the game. It didn't here, because the Jaguars' backfield and receiving corps, rated higher than Denver's coming in at 61 to 48 and 58 to 54, kept finding room when it counted, and Jacksonville's defence forced the turnovers that Denver's couldn't match.

Alphr's model had Denver as 66% favourites and expected them to win by 3.9 points on a projected total of 61. Jacksonville, on a five-game winning run averaging 34.2 points a game, simply played to that form and then some, winning by 14 instead of losing by four. Both sides carried five-game winning streaks into this one. Only one of them left with it intact.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| **453** | Total Yards | 360 |
| **352** | Passing Yards | 279 |
| **101** | Rushing Yards | 81 |
| **33** | First Downs | 31 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -2.1 | Offensive EPA | **6** |

**Model Report Card**

Jacksonville Jaguars defied the model's 66% prediction for Denver Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 14 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 9 points above Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. Jacksonville Jaguars bucked the trend, Denver Broncos historically win 50% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.57 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 66.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 61

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 66% to see off Jacksonville Jaguars. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 125 ELO points clear, 1671 to 1546.

On paper Jacksonville Jaguars shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Denver Broncos, which says Team Rating (ELO) carry the most weight. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 61. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Denver Broncos to win, not to win big.

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 34-20 in 2025 Week 16.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Sean Payton and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.57 and Jacksonville Jaguars $2.45, with the spread at Denver Broncos -3.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 5 · Jacksonville Jaguars 7 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 34-20 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Liam Coen |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.57 · Jacksonville Jaguars $2.45 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -3.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Denver Broncos

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 5W–5L | 50% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1W–5L | 17% |

Avg total: 45.1 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Denver Broncos have won 5 of 10 games (50%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 1 from 6 (17%). Small sample (6 games for Jacksonville Jaguars).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 23.4pts | Avg Score | 34.2pts |
| 19.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 4.4pts | Avg Margin | 19.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W10 W · W11 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W | 23.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W | 34.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Denver Broncos | 20 – 34 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2022 | W8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 21 | Denver Broncos |
| 2021 | W2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 – 23 | Denver Broncos |
| 2019 | W4 | Denver Broncos | 24 – 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2016 | W13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 – 20 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·1·3·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 6/7g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 17/46g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/15g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/15g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/22g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/19g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/19g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/14g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 12 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·3) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.92 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/4g | 2/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/19g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | DeeJay Dallas | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 4 pass) · model 54% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Washington, B.Strange, T.Lawrence

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Troy Franklin 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1671 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1546 · ELO difference: 125 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 73 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 58 | Even |
| Backfield | 48 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +13 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 56 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 69 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 61 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r16-denver-broncos-v-jacksonville-jaguars
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-12-21 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)