# Dallas Cowboys v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dallas Cowboys 17 – 34 Los Angeles Chargers

_Los Angeles Chargers bolt past Dallas Cowboys._

Half time: 17 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dallas Cowboys 40% / Los Angeles Chargers 60% · AT&T Stadium · Mon, 22 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Dallas Cowboys: Ryan Flournoy (5'), George Pickens (22' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston (9' Tipped ⚡), Ladd McConkey (21'), Justin Herbert (30'), Omarion Hampton (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 60% | Won |
| Dallas Cowboys | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Dallas Cowboys 17–34 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 16 at AT&T Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-two and a half points. That's the gap in offensive EPA between the two sides, 24.3 for Los Angeles Chargers against 1.9 for Dallas Cowboys, and it tells you everything about why the Chargers left AT&T Stadium with a 34-17 win that was never as tight as the four-point margin the model had pencilled in.

The scoreboard did some early lying. Ryan Flournoy opened the game with a touchdown, Dallas led 7-0, and George Pickens had them back in front 16-14 with just over eight minutes left in the second quarter. Then Justin Herbert answered right before half-time to make it 17-20, and Dallas never led again. At the break it was 17-21, and from there the Chargers just kept adding, an unanswered stretch through the third quarter and Omarion Hampton's touchdown with 4:52 left in the fourth turning a contest into the kind of scoreline that reads exactly like the underlying numbers.

Those numbers were lopsided everywhere it mattered. Los Angeles ran up 452 total yards to Dallas's 346, out-rushed them 152 to 91, and picked up 39 first downs against 30. The turnover column read 1-0 in the Chargers' favour too, and against a defence that had them at a pass-rush disadvantage on paper, 45 to 54, Dallas simply couldn't afford that kind of margin for error. They didn't get one.

Through the air it was closer to an even contest, on paper at least. Dak Prescott went 21-of-30 for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns, a tidy afternoon by most measures. Justin Herbert matched him with 2 touchdowns of his own and beat him comfortably on volume, 23-of-29 for 300 yards. Dallas held a healthy quarterback rating edge coming in, 59 to 35, and it simply didn't show up when it counted.

George Pickens was arguably the best individual performer on the ground, 7 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown, the clear focal point of a Dallas passing game that had the tools but not the support. Omarion Hampton led all rushers with 85 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown, and that ground production, 152 yards worth, backed up the pre-match read that had the Chargers' backfield rated above Dallas's, 61 to 53.

Dallas came in on the back of a WWWLL run and Los Angeles on a WLWWW one, and the form lines held true enough. The Chargers' defensive numbers, an 18.2-point average concession compared to Dallas conceding 28.6, lined up with a secondary rated well ahead of its counterpart, 56 to 47, and it played out that way on the day.

Alphr's model backed Los Angeles Chargers to win at 60 percent, and got that right. The margin was where it came unstuck, tipping Dallas by 4.1 when the Chargers actually won by 17. The total score read

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Total Yards | **452** |
| 255 | Passing Yards | **300** |
| 91 | Rushing Yards | **152** |
| 30 | First Downs | **39** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| 1.9 | Offensive EPA | **24.3** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Chargers to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 17 points. Total score prediction of 54 was close to the actual 51, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 6 points above Alan Eck's career average of 45. Los Angeles Chargers's victory aligns with Alan Eck's historical trend, Los Angeles Chargers have a 25% win rate under this referee. Despite Alan Eck's 69% career home-team win rate, the away side Los Angeles Chargers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $2.02 (edge +10.9%) — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 4 · Predicted total: 54

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Chargers are the call at 60%, but Dallas Cowboys stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Chargers sit 95 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1471. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Dallas Cowboys.

Los Angeles Chargers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Dallas Cowboys by 4.1, with the two sides combining for about 54. Lean Los Angeles Chargers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 34-17 in 2025 Week 16.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Dak Prescott starts under centre for Dallas Cowboys, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Brian Schottenheimer and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Dallas Cowboys favourites, Dallas Cowboys $1.82 and Los Angeles Chargers $2.02, with the spread at Dallas Cowboys -1.5 and the total at 50.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dallas Cowboys 3 · Los Angeles Chargers 5 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 34-17 (2025) |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 4-4 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Jim Harbaugh |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $1.82 · Los Angeles Chargers $2.02 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -1.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 0W–1L | 0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 1W–3L | 25% |

Avg total: 44.7 pts · Home win %: 69% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, Los Angeles Chargers have won 1 of 4 games (25%), significantly stronger than Dallas Cowboys's 0 from 1 (0%). Home teams win 69% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (1 games for Dallas Cowboys).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 28.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.2pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 L · W15 L | 28.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W10 W · W11 L · W13 W · W14 W · W15 W | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Dallas Cowboys | 17 – 34 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2023 | W6 | Los Angeles Chargers | 17 – 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2021 | W2 | Los Angeles Chargers | 17 – 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2017 | W12 | Dallas Cowboys | 6 – 28 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2013 | W4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 30 – 21 | Dallas Cowboys |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AT&T Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 12 in 14g | 8/10g (2·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/6g | 5/8g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 52% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/29g | 28% | — | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 27/48g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 19% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 24/72g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/16g | 7% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/33g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Joe Milton III | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jonathan Mingo | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 7 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 39% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Will Dissly | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Chargers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: L.McConkey, J.Herbert

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 52% · no TD
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ George Pickens — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Cowboys: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Flournoy

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Los Angeles Chargers hold the ELO advantage (1566 vs 1471), but the market favours Dallas Cowboys (@1.82). The model sides with ELO, Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1471 · Los Angeles Chargers 1566 · ELO difference: 95 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 35 | Dallas Cowboys +24 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 47 | Dallas Cowboys +14 |
| Backfield | 53 | 61 | Los Angeles Chargers +8 |
| Pass Rush | 45 | 54 | Los Angeles Chargers +9 |
| Secondary | 47 | 56 | Los Angeles Chargers +9 |
| Special Teams | 78 | 75 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 54 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)