# Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 22 – 16 Green Bay Packers

_Chicago Bears hit back to bear down on Green Bay Packers._

Half time: 0 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 37% / Green Bay Packers 63% · Soldier Field · Sun, 21 Dec, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: DJ Moore (56' Tipped ⚡), Jahdae Walker (60') · Green Bay Packers: Romeo Doubs (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 63% | Lost |
| Chicago Bears | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Dec 2025, 12:20 pm_

Chicago Bears 22–16 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 16 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears 22, Green Bay Packers 16, and for a long stretch that scoreline looked implausible. At half-time it was 0-6, Green Bay in front and the Bears without a point to show for it. By the 0:39 mark of the third quarter, Romeo Doubs had turned that into 3-12, and by the end of the quarter it was 3-13. Green Bay were controlling the shape of the game.

Then the fourth quarter happened. Jahdae Walker's touchdown with 0:28 left dragged Chicago to within one, 15-16, and by the end of regulation it was locked at 16-16. That's an 11-point swing from where things stood after three quarters, and it forced overtime. DJ Moore finished it there, putting Chicago up 22-16 and closing the door.

The stat sheet backs up how that turnaround happened. Chicago outgained Green Bay 400 yards to 390, not a big edge on its own, but the Bears did it clean: zero turnovers against Green Bay's one, and that single giveaway mattered on a night decided by a handful of points. Add two sacks to none the other way, and Chicago's pass rush, rated 60 to Green Bay's 51 coming in, did its job when it counted.

Through the air, Caleb Williams went 19 of 34 for 250 yards and two touchdowns, working the Bears' stronger receiving corps (60 to Green Bay's 53 on paper) to good effect, with DJ Moore the clear focal point at 5 catches for 97 yards and a score. Malik Willis was efficient in limited volume for Green Bay, 9 of 11 for 121 yards and a touchdown, but efficient isn't enough when your team only touches the ball so many times and the other side plays turnover-free.

Green Bay's answer was on the ground.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 22 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| **400** | Total Yards | 390 |
| **250** | Passing Yards | 198 |
| 150 | Rushing Yards | **192** |
| 28 | First Downs | **31** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **6** | Offensive EPA | 4.1 |

**Model Report Card**

Chicago Bears defied the model's 63% prediction for Green Bay Packers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 1.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 8 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Chicago Bears's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, Chicago Bears have a 71% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.98 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 63.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Green Bay Packers +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 1 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Green Bay Packers are the call at 63%, but Chicago Bears stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 104 ELO points clear, 1643 to 1539.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Green Bay Packers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Green Bay Packers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Ben Johnson and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Chicago Bears favourites, Chicago Bears $1.85 and Green Bay Packers $1.98, with the spread at Chicago Bears -1.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 3 · Green Bay Packers 9 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 31-27 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.85 · Green Bay Packers $1.98 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -1.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Chicago Bears

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 5W–2L | 71% |
| Green Bay Packers | 8W–5L | 62% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Chicago Bears hold a 9-point edge: 5W–2L (71%) vs Green Bay Packers's 8W–5L (62%). Small sample (7 games for Chicago Bears).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 27.0pts |
| 18.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.0pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 L · W15 W | 25.2 |
| Green Bay Packers | W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 W · W15 L | 27.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Chicago Bears | 31 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 22 – 16 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W14 | Green Bay Packers | 28 – 21 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W18 | Green Bay Packers | 22 – 24 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W11 | Chicago Bears | 19 – 20 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 4/9g | 7/16g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 1/7g | 13/22g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/14g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/6g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 10/46g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 60' |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 14 in 13g | 12/10g (2·2·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 6/6g | 1/2g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 53% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0) | 4/5g | 2/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 5 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Reed | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Malik Willis | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 53% · no TD
- ⚡ Christian Watson — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Doubs

**Chicago Bears** (4 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q5**
- ⚡ Colston Loveland — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Walker

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Green Bay Packers hold the ELO advantage (1643 vs 1539), but the market favours Chicago Bears (@1.85). The model sides with ELO, Green Bay Packers predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1539 · Green Bay Packers 1643 · ELO difference: 104 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 59 | Green Bay Packers +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 53 | Chicago Bears +7 |
| Backfield | 63 | 60 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 51 | Chicago Bears +9 |
| Secondary | 57 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 63 | 76 | Green Bay Packers +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)